基于Dyna-CLUE模型的滇池流域土地利用情景设计与模拟

doi:10.11821/dlyj201509002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以滇池流域为研究对象,基于1999年、2002年两期TM遥感解译数据和区域自然与社会经济数据,应用Dyna-CLUE模型模拟2008年滇池土地利用空间分布。结合滇池流域土地利用变化趋势与退耕还林政策,设定了三种土地需求情景,模拟2022年区域土地利用空间分布情况。研究结果表明：① 两期模拟结果Kappa系数分别为0.6814与0.7124,具有高度的一致性,表明Dyna-CLUE模型在滇池流域有较强的适用性。② 三种情景的模拟结果显示,至2022年流域内未利用地、耕地显著减少,建设用地、林地显著增加,水域与草地相对变化较小,因加大退耕还林政策实施力度,三种情景中,位于官渡区、呈贡区、嵩明县及晋宁县的耕地与林地呈现不同的变化情况。③ 滇池流域建设用地扩张,增加了滇池非点源污染负荷。不合理的土地利用布局,将会恶化滇池水质,加剧水环境压力。研究结果可为未来滇池流域土地利用合理规划与非点源污染控制提供参考依据和决策支持。

关键词: 土地利用/土地覆盖变化, Dyna-CLUE模型, 情景分析, 滇池流域

Abstract:

Taking Dianchi Lake Watershed as a study area, we use Dyna-CLUE to simulate the land use spatial distribution pattern of the Dianchi Lake Watershed in 2008 in combination with the interpretation data from TM image in 1999 and 2002 and local natural and socio-economic data. According to the trend of land use change in the Dianchi Lake Watershed and the policy of returning farmland to forestland, three scenarios of land use change from 2008 to 2022 were constructed, and land use spatial pattern in 2022 in the study area was stimulated under the above-mentioned scenarios by using the Dyna-CLUE model. The results show that Kappa coefficients of the two simulated results from1999 to 2008 and from 2002 to 2008 were 0.6814 and 0.7124, compared with the interpretation data of 2008. The simulated results were credible and the Dyna-CLUE model has a good applicability in simulating land use change in the Dianchi Lake Watershed. The simulation results of the three scenarios show that the unused land and farmland will be reduced significantly, construction land and woodland will increase rapidly, and water bodies and grassland will change a little. Because of the difference in the policy of returning farmland to forestland, farmland and forestland in Guandu district, Chenggong district, Songming county and Jinning county will be different under the three scenarios. The expansion of construction land in the watershed will increase the load of non-point source pollution in the Dianchi Lake. Unreasonable distribution of land use will result in further deterioration of the water quality and increase the pressure on the water environment in the Dianchi Lake. The research can provide scientific support for rational planning of land use and prevention of non-point source pollution.

Key words: land use/land cover change, Dyna-CLUE model, scenario analysis, Dianchi Lake Watershed

陆文涛, 代超, 郭怀成. 基于Dyna-CLUE模型的滇池流域土地利用情景设计与模拟[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(9): 1619-1629.

Wentao LU, Chao DAI, Huaicheng GUO. Land use scenario design and simulation based on Dyna-CLUE model in Dianchi Lake Watershed[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(9): 1619-1629.

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驱动因子	1999-2008年各驱动因子回归系数
驱动因子	水域	建设用地	耕地	林地	草地	未利用地
常数项	4.47977	3.95347	11.61447	-11.10474	-7.77952	-3.09047
高程	-0.00434	-	-0.00573	0.00480	0.00241	-
坡向	0.00079	-0.00075	0.00137	-0.00142	0.00086	-0.00132
坡度	0.00446	-	-0.02127	0.02724	-	-0.00432
到道路最近距离	0.00049	-0.00016	-0.00095	0.00095	-0.00069	-
到水系最近距离	-0.00023	-	-0.00014	0.00015	-0.00009	0.00002
到城镇与农村居住地最近距离	-	-0.04901	0.00044	0.00165	-0.00150	-0.00147
人均GDP	-0.00241	-	-	-0.00002	0.00003	0.00004
人口密度	-0.00057	0.00016	-0.00006	-0.00044	-0.00012	-0.00006
城镇人口比例	1.45434	-	-1.03177	1.71138	0.51266	0.18524
ROC检验	0.813	0.993	0.778	0.852	0.671	0.646
驱动因子	2002-2008年各驱动因子回归系数
驱动因子	水域	建设用地	耕地	林地	草地	未利用地
常数项	4.01579	16.78386	10.11585	-13.06222	-2.97532	-4.10292
高程	-0.00375	-	-0.00501	0.00574	0.00024	-
坡向	0.00064	-	0.00108	-0.00083	-0.00135	-0.00114
坡度	0.01834	-	-0.02886	0.03475	0.00397	-0.01157
到道路最近距离	0.00048	-	-0.00095	0.00096	-0.00062	-0.00029
到水系最近距离	-0.00013	-	-0.00011	0.00013	-	-
到城镇与农村居住地最近距离	-0.00300	-0.27563	0.00016	0.00149	-0.00010	-0.00034
人均GDP	-0.00009	-	0.00004	-0.00006	-0.00004	0.00004
人口密度	-0.00063	-	-0.00015	-0.00037	-0.00006	-
城镇人口比例	1.68856	-	-0.97453	1.77595	-	1.07686
ROC检验	0.819	1.000	0.782	0.875	0.615	0.669