中国区域经济发展模式的趋同演化——以中国16种典型模式为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201511001

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

经济发展是一个不断演化的过程,由于经济要素、发展环境的不同,不同区域经济发展模式的演化路径也存在差异。从要素、制度、关系三个维度构建区域经济发展模式类型划分的概念框架,根据三个维度指标的不同组合方式,将区域经济发展模式划分为资源—市场—内生型模式等8种类型;并以中国16种典型模式为例,分析各区域经济发展模式的演化及其趋同性。研究表明：① 区域经济发展模式在路径依赖和路径创造的共同作用下实现动态演化。② 中国各区域经济发展模式向更加注重人力资本等无形生产要素、市场力量和外生力量转变,总体上由“资源—政府—内生型”模式、“资源—政府—外生型”模式、“人力资本—政府—外生型”模式等模式向“人力资本—市场—外生型”模式演变。③ 中国各区域经济发展模式趋同性明显,表现为要素结构、市场化程度、内外生关系的趋同,以及时间和空间的趋同;经过多样化的发展和演化过程,各模式间的学习、融合加深,并走向“殊途同归”。

关键词: 区域经济, 发展模式, 演化, 要素—制度—关系, 模式趋同

Abstract:

As regional economies develop, regional economic development models are also evolving dynamically. Due to the differences of society, economy, resources and environment, economic development models evolve differently. In this paper, we establish a theoretical framework to classify economic development models according to three dimensions: elements (resource-driven or human-capital-driven), systems (government or market), and relationship (endogenous or exogenous), based on thorough review on the existing theoretical discussion. And we identify eight kinds of economic development model, such as "Resource-Market-Endogenous" and "Resource-Government-Exogenous" models (the paper explains the meanings of the models). Then taking 16 typical economic models in China as an example, we analyze the evolutional process. We find that: (1) regional economic development models are evolving dynamically under the influence of path dependence and path creation. (2) During the evolution process of China's regional economic development models, the intangible elements, market and exogenous forces are becoming increasingly important. There has also been an obvious evolution from models such as "Resource-Government-Endogenous", "Resource-Government-Exogenous", and "Human capital-Government-Exogenous" towards "Human capital-Market-Exogenous" on the whole. (3) With mutual learning and extensive communication, regional economic development models in China have seen an evolution from differentiation to convergence. It should be noted that this convergence is mainly characterized by goal convergence, although the process is different. Elemental structure, system environment and endo-exogenous relationships have always been important aspects of regional economic development model research, however, most of which focused on one of the three aspects. This paper puts forward a comparatively thorough theoretical framework to examine all Chinese development models. It is an important supplement and development to the existing research.

Key words: regional economy, development model, evolution, element-system-relationship, model convergence

曾刚, 尚勇敏, 司月芳. 中国区域经济发展模式的趋同演化——以中国16种典型模式为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(11): 2005-2020.

Gang ZENG, Yongmin SHANG, Yuefang SI. The convergent evolution of China's regional economic development models[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2015, 34(11): 2005-2020.

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模式名称	内涵特征	东部	中部	西部
金华模式	专业市场导向型	*
温州模式	小商品、大市场	*
上海模式	政府强势、以浦东开发为龙头的外向型经济	*
深圳模式	从出口加工业转变为高新技术产业为主的自主创新型模式	*
东莞模式	以“三来一补”、出口加工业等劳动密集型产业为主	*
苏州模式	集体经济向以吸引外资发展出口加工业的外向型经济模式	*
泉州模式	强调民营经济的发展模式	*
东营模式	矿业城市资源可持续开发利用发展模式	*
天津模式	大项目、大投资带动的重化工业发展模式	*
大连模式	提升城市环境,使环境资本变为经济优势的环境经济模式	*
青岛模式	以创造知名品牌为城市经济发展提升价值的品牌经济模式	*
鄂尔多斯模式	西部资源型城市的工业化发展模式		*
长沙模式	两型社会下的城市群协同发展模式		*
重庆模式	统筹城乡发展与内陆开放型的经济发展模式			*
西安模式	科技与经济融合的经济发展模式			*
贵阳模式	西部山区建设生态文明城市的经济发展模式			*

年份	产业结构比				生产要素市场化指数				非公有工业总产值比重				开放度
年份	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值	均值	标准差
1987	0.026	2.643	1.067	0.800	0.225	0.849	0.577	0.193	0.004	0.757	0.261	0.285	0.006	1.703	0.315	0.513
1992	0.043	2.877	1.157	0.798	0.142	0.789	0.527	0.192	0.072	0.827	0.378	0.264	0.015	4.097	0.665	1.226
1997	0.084	5.503	1.682	1.461	0.106	0.922	0.640	0.211	0.278	0.929	0.510	0.215	0.015	3.936	0.687	1.103
2002	0.106	4.683	1.811	1.371	0.352	0.896	0.670	0.157	0.310	0.985	0.636	0.246	0.067	3.086	0.812	1.001
2007	0.188	4.482	1.907	1.678	0.593	0.872	0.721	0.091	0.467	0.970	0.713	0.178	0.039	3.215	0.948	1.081
2012	0.004	6.559	1.854	1.623	0.589	0.867	0.742	0.075	0.470	0.968	0.760	0.149	0.007	2.276	0.695	0.687