基于乡镇尺度的河南省人口分布的地统计学分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201602010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于地统计学方法,以乡镇层面的第六次人口普查数据为基础,对河南省人口分布及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明：全省人口分布基本上可划分为山区低密度、平原中密度和城市高密度三种类型;变异函数在东西、南北、东北—西南和西北—东南四个方向上趋向相近,距离超过80 km后,各向异性增强;变异函数的指数模型拟合效果最好,插值结果直观地表现了人口疏密的梯度变化;洛阳至淮滨一线为全省较明显的人口分界线;山区和平原两种地形条件是影响该省人口空间格局的基本因素;在平原地区,区位条件和社会经济发展的互动作用又成为影响城镇人口分布的主要因素。在推进城镇化的进程中,应结合主体功能区划和新型城镇化战略,有序推进城乡人口的再分布。

关键词: 人口分布, 乡镇尺度, 地统计学, 变异函数, 河南省

Abstract:

Henan province, located in central region, is China's third most populous province. Based on the sixth population census data at township level, this article analyzes the features and trends of population distribution in Henan province by the geological statistics method, and discusses the factors influencing this distribution. The results are as follows: (1) Spatial scale is a basic parameter to study population distribution issue. The actual situation of population distribution will be expressed accurately when small spatial units are used. (2) The Lorenz curve is generated by the 1955 township-level units. There is 10% of the total population in 35.1% of the total land area with low density, and 36.2% of the population in 10% of the area with high density. (3) The exponential model has the best fitting effect for the variation function. When the distance is within 80 km, the variation functions have similar trends in the four directions of east-west, north-south, northeast-southwest, and northwest-southeast. The anisotropies enhances when the distance is over 80 km. The r(h) is the highest in the east-west direction. (4) The population density has the strongest homogeneity and the smallest variation in north-south direction, and the most obvious variation in east-west direction. (5) The interpolation results represent intuitively the gradient change process of population density. The population distribution of Henan province could be divided into three types: sparsely populated area in mountainous areas, medium density area in rural plains and basins, and densely populated area in urban areas. There is a dividing line of population density from Luoyang city, Pingdingshan city, Zhumadian city to Huaibin county in northwest-southeast direction. To the northeast of the line is densely populated region whereas to the southwest of the line is sparsely populated, which indicates the macro pattern of population distribution in this province. Two kinds of terrain condition (mountains and plains) are the basic factor influencing the population spatial pattern. The level of land reclamation is mainly constrained by the terrain condition, while population density depends on the level of land reclamation. High density in urban regions is the results of the interaction of the superior geographical condition and socioeconomic development. In the rapid urbanization process, it is significant to realize the orderly population movement and reasonable spatial redistribution through implementing the Major Function Oriented Zoning and the New Urbanization Strategy. To create favorable conditions for living and working are in favor of population gathering. We should mitigate negative effects of population redistribution on resources and environment, and seek a green development way.

Key words: population distribution, township level, geological statistics, variance function, Henan province

张海霞, 牛叔文, 齐敬辉, 叶丽琼, 李娜. 基于乡镇尺度的河南省人口分布的地统计学分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(2): 325-336.

Haixia ZHANG, Shuwen NIU, Jinghui QI, Liqiong YE, Na LI. Geological statistics analysis of population distribution at township level in Henan province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(2): 325-336.

图/表 9

图1

表1

三个空间尺度上的极值比的变化"

空间尺度	单元个数	面积（km²）			人口总数（万人）				人口密度（人/km²）
空间尺度	单元个数	max		min	$max min$	max	min	$max min$	max	min	$max min$
地市级	17	26591	1965	13.5	1026.4	67.6	15.2		1145	213	5.4
县级	150	4004	35	114.4	192.6	5.5	35.0		7434	88	84.5
乡镇级	1955	783	5	156.6	118.9	0.1	1189		17590	21	837.6

表1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表2

表3

图6

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方向	分维数	标准误差	R²
南北方向	1.917	0.090	0.944
东北-西南方向	1.872	0.034	0.993
东西方向	1.831	0.063	0.967
西北-东南方向	1.899	0.120	0.919

步长（km）	残差平方和	R²	块金值（C₀）	基台值（C₀+C）	变程（km）
8	0.0143	0.974	0.3700	1.0630	292.70
8.5	0.0137	0.974	0.3700	1.0720	298.00
9	0.0142	0.972	0.3660	1.0460	279.50
9.5	0.0133	0.971	0.3610	0.9880	243.00
10	0.0143	0.970	0.3620	1.0260	264.50