地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 717-730.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201604010
收稿日期:
2015-11-27
修回日期:
2016-03-07
出版日期:
2016-04-20
发布日期:
2016-04-20
作者简介:
作者简介:刘鑫(1992- ),男,陕西西安人,硕士,研究方向为产业布局与集聚。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2015-11-27
Revised:
2016-03-07
Online:
2016-04-20
Published:
2016-04-20
摘要:
动态外部性对于城市产业增长具有显著影响,考察技术关联与城市产业增长之间的关系,并结合产业特征和区域特征构建产业—空间新增长模型,探讨技术关联对城市产业增长的影响机制。采用1998-2008年中国工业企业数据库的数据,研究发现产业特征和区域特征与技术关联存在相互作用,技术密集型产业的技术关联显著促进产业增长,此外东部地区技术关联越高,产业增长越迅速。研究表明,技术关联对城市产业增长的影响具有显著的促进作用,且在不同产业内部和不同区域间存在显著差异。
刘鑫, 贺灿飞. 技术关联与城市产业增长研究[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(4): 717-730.
Xin LIU, Canfei HE. Relatedness and urban industrial growth[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(4): 717-730.
表2
主要变量统计性描述"
观测值 | 平均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Relatedness | 1216880 | 0.1932883 | 0.0924413 | 0 | 1 |
SIZE | 1232768 | 258.6296 | 486.0307 | 0 | 36590 |
FDI | 1232768 | 0.0364882 | 0.0925172 | 0 | 1 |
COMP | 1232768 | 33.92098 | 93.24946 | 0 | 2826 |
PGDP | 1232768 | 14095.08 | 13060.17 | 0 | 102741 |
URBAN | 1232768 | 0.3239391 | 0.5753018 | 0 | 29.53673 |
MARK | 1232768 | 0.6793762 | 0.3796069 | 0 | 1 |
TRAN | 1232768 | 0.5582799 | 0.351544 | 0 | 3.931304 |
表3
模型变量相关系数表"
Relatedness | SIZE | FDI | COMP | PGDP | URBAN | MARK | TRAN | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Relatedness | 1.0000 | |||||||
SIZE | 0.0125 | 1.0000 | ||||||
FDI | 0.0597 | 0.0217 | 1.0000 | |||||
COMP | 0.1484 | -0.0485 | 0.2062 | 1.0000 | ||||
PGDP | 0.1278 | -0.0361 | 0.3335 | 0.4184 | 1.0000 | |||
URBAN | 0.0173 | 0.0059 | 0.0645 | 0.0225 | 0.1849 | 1.0000 | ||
MARK | 0.2535 | 0.0815 | 0.1704 | 0.3339 | 0.2709 | 0.0179 | 1.0000 | |
TRAN | 0.1543 | -0.0174 | 0.2353 | 0.2890 | 0.4299 | 0.0597 | 0.2108 | 1.0000 |
表4
技术关联与城市产业增长回归结果"
模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | |
---|---|---|---|
Relatedness | 66.27*** | 65.16*** | 64.28*** |
(2.607) | (2.615) | (2.624) | |
AVEK | 0.5363*** | 0.4818*** | 0.4291*** |
(0.251) | (0.188) | (0.192) | |
AVEL | 0.2273*** | 0.2039*** | 0.1728** |
(0.536) | (0.518) | (0.482) | |
SIZE | 0.123*** | 0.139*** | |
(0.0449) | (0.0449) | ||
FDI | -7.647*** | -4.100* | |
(2.136) | (2.235) | ||
COMP | 0.706*** | 0.633*** | |
(0.152) | (0.166) | ||
PGDP | -6.22*** | ||
(2.01) | |||
URBAN | -0.455 | ||
(0.653) | |||
MARK | 11.35*** | ||
(0.987) | |||
TRAN | 3.901*** | ||
(0.718) | |||
产业虚拟变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
区域虚拟变量 | 是 | 是 | 是 |
Constant | -58.74*** | -61.08*** | -68.51*** |
(2.608) | (2.641) | (2.723) | |
R2 | 0.1792 | 0.0835 | 0.0728 |
Observations | 307962 | 307962 | 255301 |
表5
技术关联与产业-区域交叉变量回归结果"
模型(4) | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | |
---|---|---|---|
Relatedness | 64.28*** | 66.70*** | 65.31*** |
(2.624) | (2.972) | (2.930) | |
East | -3.622 | -6.483** | -3.512 |
(2.412) | (2.746) | (2.447) | |
Middle | -7.164*** | -5.985** | -7.195*** |
(2.409) | (2.727) | (2.444) | |
West | -8.475*** | -5.226* | -8.397*** |
(2.447) | (2.907) | (2.482) | |
Labor | 1.605** | 2.740** | |
(0.646) | (1.268) | ||
Capital | 1.609** | 1.543 | |
(0.489) | (1.211) | ||
Tech | 3.165*** | -0.968 | |
(0.634) | (1.767) | ||
Relatedness*East | 15.07** | ||
(6.565) | |||
Relatedness*Middle | -6.933 | ||
(6.188) | |||
Relatedness*West | -16.69** | ||
(7.628) | |||
Relatedness*Labor | -7.001 | ||
(5.520) | |||
Relatedness*Capital | -1.403 | ||
(5.930) | |||
Relatedness*Tech | 22.04** | ||
(8.867) | |||
Constant | -68.51*** | -69.24*** | -68.64*** |
(2.723) | (2.779) | (2.783) | |
R2 | 0.0728 | 0.0694 | 0.0637 |
Observations | 255301 | 255301 | 255301 |
表6
技术关联与其他交叉变量回归结果"
模型(7) | 模型(8) | 模型(9) | |
---|---|---|---|
Relatedness | 64.28*** | 66.70*** | 65.31*** |
(2.624) | (2.972) | (2.930) | |
SIZE | 0.139*** | 0.151*** | 0.142*** |
(0.0449) | (0.0470) | (0.0468) | |
FDI | -4.100* | -3.822* | -4.032* |
(2.235) | (2.258) | (2.255) | |
COMP | 0.633*** | 0.568*** | 0.633*** |
(0.166) | (0.169) | (0.168) | |
PGDP | -6.22*** | -5.58*** | -6.34*** |
(2.01) | (2.04) | (2.03) | |
URBAN | -0.455 | -0.485 | -0.506 |
(0.653) | (0.657) | (0.657) | |
MARK | 11.35*** | 11.36*** | 11.32*** |
(0.987) | (0.997) | (0.997) | |
TRAN | 3.901*** | 3.957*** | 3.971*** |
(0.718) | (0.723) | (0.723) | |
Relatedness*SIZE | 8.936** | ||
(4.526) | |||
Relatedness*FDI | -3.403 | ||
(3.931) | |||
Relatedness*COMP | 12.73** | ||
(4.288) | |||
Relatedness*PGDP | -5.806 | ||
(3.191) | |||
Relatedness*URBAN | -2.007 | ||
(5.717) | |||
Relatedness*MARK | 23.19** | ||
(9.916) | |||
Relatedness*TRAN | 16.84** | ||
(7.381) | |||
Constant | -68.51*** | -67.76*** | -69.35*** |
(2.723) | (2.620) | (2.514) | |
R2 | 0.0728 | 0.0671 | 0.0609 |
Observations | 255301 | 255301 | 255301 |
[1] |
Lucas R.On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, 22: 3-42.
doi: 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7 |
[2] | Jacobs J.The Economy of Cities. New York: Vintage, 1996. |
[3] |
Porter M.The Competitive Advantage of Nations. New York: The Free Press, 1990.
doi: 10.1002/cir.3880010112 |
[4] |
Batisse C.Dynamic externalities and local growth: A panel data analysis applied to Chinese provinces. China Economic Review, 2002, 13(2-3): 231-251.
doi: 10.1016/S1043-951X(02)00068-8 |
[5] | 薄文广. 外部性与产业增长: 来自中国省级面板数据的研究. 中国工业经济, 2007, (1): 37-44. |
[Bo Wenguang.Externalities and Industrial economic growth-evidences from Chinese provincial panel data. China Industrial Economy, 2007, (1): 37-44.] | |
[6] | 吴三忙, 李善同. 专业化、多样化与产业增长关系: 基于中国省级制造业面板数据的实证研究. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2011, 28(8): 21-34. |
[Wu Sanmang, Li Shantong.Specialization, diversity and industrial growth. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2011, 28(8): 21-34.] | |
[7] |
孙晓华, 周玲玲. 多样化、专业化、城市规模与经济增长: 基于中国地级市面板数据的实证检验. 管理工程学报, 2013,27(2): 71-78.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-6062.2013.02.010 |
[Sun Xiaohua, Zhou Lingling.Diversification, specialization, city size and economic growth: An empirical analysis based on panel data of prefecture-level cities of China. Journal of Industrial Engineering Management, 2013, 27(2): 71-78.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-6062.2013.02.010 |
|
[8] |
Romer P.Increasing returns and long run growth. Journal of Political Economy, 1986, 94(5): 1002-1037.
doi: 10.1086/261420 |
[9] | Grossman G, Helpmen E.Innovation and Growth in the World Economy. Cambirdge: MIT Press, 1991. |
[10] | Marshall A.Principles of Economics. London: Macmillan, 1920. |
[11] |
Quigley J.Urban diversity and economic growth. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1998, 12(2): 127-138.
doi: 10.1257/jep.12.2.127 |
[12] |
Glaeser E, Kallal H, Scheinkman A, et al.Growth in cities. The Journal of Political Economy, 1992, 100(6): 1126-1152.
doi: 10.1086/261856 |
[13] | Henderson V, Kuncoro A, Turner M, et al.Industrial development in Cities. Journal of Political Economy, 1995, 103(5): 1067-1085. |
[14] |
Combes P.Economic structure and local growth: France, 1984-1993. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000, 47(3): 329-355.
doi: 10.1006/juec.1999.2143 |
[15] |
Jaffe A.The importance of spillovers in the policy mission of the advanced technology program. The Journal of Technology Transfer, 1998, 23(2): 11-19.
doi: 10.1007/BF02509888 |
[16] |
Nooteboom B, Van Haverbeke W, Duysters G, et al.Optimal cognitive distance and absorptive capacity. Research Policy,2007, 36(7): 1016-1034.
doi: 10.1016/j.respol.2007.04.003 |
[17] |
Porter M.The economic performance of regions. Regional Studies, 2003, 37(6-7): 545-546.
doi: 10.1080/0034340032000108688 |
[18] |
Potter A, Watts H.Revisiting Marshall's agglomeration economies: Technological relatedness and the evolution of the Sheffield metals cluster. Regional Studies, 2014, 48(4): 603-623.
doi: 10.1080/00343404.2012.667560 |
[19] | Frenken K, Van Oort F, Verburg T, et al.Related variety, unrelated variety and regional economic growth. Regional Studies, 2007, 41(5): 685-697. |
[20] |
Boschma R, Iammarino S.Related variety, trade linkages, and regional growth in Italy. Economic Geography, 2009, 85(3): 289-311.
doi: 10.1111/j.1944-8287.2009.01034.x |
[21] |
Boschma R, Frenken K.The emerging empirics of evolutionary economic geography. Journal of Economic Geography, 2011, 11(2): 295-307.
doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbq053 |
[22] |
Hidalgo C, Klinger B, Barabasi A, et al.The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 2007, 317(5837): 482-487.
doi: 10.1126/science.1144581 pmid: 17656717 |
[23] |
Fan Bohong, Lang Xianpin.The measurement of relatedness: an application to corporate diversification. Journal of Business, 2002,73(4): 629-660.
doi: 10.1086/209657 |
[24] | 文东伟. FDI、出口开放与中国省区产业增长. 金融研究, 2013, (6): 104-117. |
[Wen Dongwei.FDI、Export openness and Chinese provincial industry growth. Journal of Financial Research, 2013, (6): 104-117.] | |
[25] | 彭向, 蒋传海. 产业集聚、知识溢出与地区创新: 基于中国工业行业的实证检验. 经济学(季刊), 2011, 10(2): 913-934. |
[Peng Xiang, Jiang Chuanhai.Industrial agglomeration, technological spillovers and regional innovation: Evidences from China. China Economic Quarterly, 2011, 10(2): 913-934.] | |
[26] |
Feldman P, Audretsch B.Innovation in cities: Science-based diversity, specialization and localized competition. European Economic Review, 1999, 43(2): 409-429.
doi: 10.1016/S0014-2921(98)00047-6 |
[27] | 贺灿飞, 潘峰华. 中国城市产业增长研究: 基于动态外部性与经济转型视角. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 726-737. |
[He Canfei, Pan Fenghua.City industry growth in China: Perspectives of dynamic externalities and economic transition. Geographical Research, 2009, 28(3): 726-737.] | |
[28] | 贺灿飞, 谢秀珍, 潘峰华, 等. 中国制造业省区分布及其影响因素. 地理研究, 2008, 27(3): 623-635. |
[He Canfei, Xie Xiuzhen, Pan Fenghua, et al.Locaitonal studies of Chinese manufacturing industries. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(3): 623-635.] | |
[29] |
周其仁. 城乡中国. 北京:中信出版社, 2014.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2781.2014.31.003 |
[Zhou Qiren.Urban and Rural China. Beijing: China Citi Press, 2014.]
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-2781.2014.31.003 |
|
[30] | Guo Qi, He Canfei.Evolution of production space and regional industrial structures in China. Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, 2015, 15(21): 1-27. |
[31] |
Jankowska A, Nagengast A, Perea J, et al.The product space and the middle-income trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American experiences. OECD Development Centre Working Papers, 2012, 311: 1-2.
doi: 10.1787/5k8x7gwqsllp-en |
[1] | 朱晟君, 殷子涵, 杨博飞, 贺灿飞. 从生产能力到转产能力——基于对疫情期间中国转产情况的思考[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(2): 293-309. |
[2] | 李振发, 贺灿飞. 中国电子机械制造业产品内出口贸易空间布局[J]. 地理研究, 2021, 40(1): 119-137. |
[3] | 马双, 曾刚, 张翼鸥. 技术关联性、复杂性与区域多样化——来自中国地级市的证据[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(4): 865-879. |
[4] | 郝均, 曾刚, 赵建吉, 胡志强. 中国中部地区技术关联对产业创新的影响研究[J]. 地理研究, 2020, 39(3): 601-610. |
[5] | 王然, 连芳, 余瀚, 史培军, 王静爱. 基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(5): 836-850. |
[6] | 贺灿飞, 潘峰华. 中国城市产业增长研究: 基于动态外部性与经济转型视角[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(3): 726-737. |
[7] | 安介生. 历史时期中国人口迁移若干规律的探讨[J]. 地理研究, 2004, 23(5): 667-676. |
[8] | 韩茂莉. 近三百年来承德地区的经济开发过程及其区域特征[J]. 地理研究, 1996, 15(1): 50-57. |
[9] | 刘燕华, 李钜章, 赵跃龙. 中国近期自然灾害程度的区域特征*[J]. 地理研究, 1995, 14(3): 14-25. |
|