基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201605003

地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 836-850.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201605003

基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析

王然^1,²(), 连芳^1,³, 余瀚^1,⁴, 史培军³, 王静爱^1,^2,³()

1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京 100875
2. 北京师范大学区域地理研究实验室,北京 100875
3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
4. 兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,兰州 730101

收稿日期:2016-01-05 修回日期:2016-04-10 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-05-10
作者简介:
作者简介：王然（1989- ）,男,博士研究生,主要从事灾害链和灾害风险研究。E-mail: wangr0225@163.com
基金资助:
教育部—国家外国专家局高等学校创新引智计划项目（B08008）;国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（2012CB955403）

Classification and regional features analysis of global typhoon disaster chains based on hazard-formative environment

Ran WANG^1,²(), Fang LIAN^1,³, Han YU^1,⁴, Peijun SHI³, Jingai WANG^1,^2,³()

1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2. Laboratory of Regional Geography,Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
3. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
4. School of Agriculture & Forestry Economics and Management, Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730101, China

Received:2016-01-05 Revised:2016-04-10 Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-05-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球气候变化与经济一体化的背景下,台风引发的次生灾害构成灾害链,加剧人口、经济等多方面的损失。以2000-2010年案例数据为基础,依据台风所经过区域的孕灾环境特性,提出了全球台风灾害链分类体系,并统计得出类型与强度的区域特征：在西北太平洋,主要发生于山地（丘陵）区（占34.4%）,强度为3.1;在南太平洋,主要发生于岛屿区（占59.2%）,强度为2.6~3.0;在北印度洋,主要发生于河口海岸区（占35.8%）,强度为0.7~0.9;在南印度洋,主要发生于平原区（占31%）,强度为2.6;在北大西洋与东北太平洋,主要发生于平原海岸区（分别占24.7%与31.2%）,强度分别为2.0~2.3和2.3。研究结果可为台风灾害链自动识别、动态模拟与预测提供理论基础,用以支持区域防灾减灾建设与应急响应策略制定。

关键词: 台风灾害链, 分类, 全球, 区域特征, 孕灾环境

Abstract:

In the context of global climate change and economic integration, the catastrophes, which are caused by typhoon occur frequently and bring a great loss to the whole world in the aspect of population, economy and others. As a result, the typhoon catastrophes pose a great threat to regional security. Some secondary disasters such as storm surges, floods, landslides and debris flows, which are triggered by typhoon, constitute disaster chains with an accumulative and amplified effect on disaster losses. According to disaster system theory, this paper proposes a classification system of global typhoon disaster chains with cases data from 2000 to 2010 that is collected from internet and media report, based on the characteristics of hazard-formative environment that typhoons pass over. Then it makes the classified statistics of disaster chains on type and intensity, and obtains regional features of six ocean areas in the world by classifying and analyzing case data. Result of regional features on type and intensity show that: in the Northwest Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in mountainous (or hilly) areas, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 34.4%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 3.1. In the South Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the insular area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 59.2%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.6 to 3.0. In the North India Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the estuarine coastal area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 35.8%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 0.7 to 0.9. In South India Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains mainly occur in the plain area, the total proportion of disaster chains type can be 31%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.6. In the North Atlantic Ocean region and Northeast Pacific Ocean region, typhoon disaster chains occur mainly in the plain coastal area. In addition, the total proportion of North Atlantic Ocean can be 24.7%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.0 to 2.3, the total proportion of Northeast Pacific Ocean can be 31.2%, and the intensity of disaster chains can be 2.3. This research can provide a theoretical basis for automatic recognition, dynamic simulation and forecast of typhoon disaster chains in the world to support infrastructure construction of regional disaster prevention, and help to make regional strategies of disaster mitigation and emergency responses or rescue.

Key words: typhoon disaster chains, classification, global, regional features, hazard-formative environment

王然, 连芳, 余瀚, 史培军, 王静爱. 基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(5): 836-850.

Ran WANG, Fang LIAN, Han YU, Peijun SHI, Jingai WANG. Classification and regional features analysis of global typhoon disaster chains based on hazard-formative environment[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(5): 836-850.

图/表 9

表1

台风灾害链研究所用基础数据[28-32]"

类别	名称	年份	数据规格	来源
地理底图数据	全球基本底图数据（国界、洲界、湖泊等）	2014	矢量数据, 1 $:$ 200000000	Star Map Press, Beijing, China
孕灾环境数据	全球数字高程数据	2010	栅格数据,网格尺寸：1 km×1 km	United States Geological Survey（USGS） http://topotools.cr.usgs.gov/gmted_viewer/gmted2010_global_grids.php
	全球地表坡度数据	2002 2006	栅格数据,网格尺寸：10 km×10 km	International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis - Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) http://www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at
	全球海岸地貌类型数据	2011	栅格数据,网格尺寸：0.5°×0.5°	http://geotypes.net
致灾因子数据	全球台风3 s瞬时风场数据	-	栅格数据,网格尺寸：1 km×1 km	行星边界层模型（PBL）模拟

表1

表2

台风灾害链类型"

地理环境大类		地貌子类（代码）	灾害链大类		代码		灾害链子类	代码		链元数
海洋		岛屿A	台风—风暴潮(海浪)		AI		台风—风暴潮(海浪)	AI-1		2
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪水	AI-2		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—渍涝	AI-3		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪涝	AI-4		3
			台风—暴雨—洪涝		AII		台风—暴雨—洪涝	AII-1		3
							台风—暴雨—渍涝	AII-2		3
							台风—暴雨—洪水	AII-3		3
			台风—暴雨—山洪		AIII		台风—暴雨—山洪	AIII-1		3
			台风—暴雨—山洪		AIII		台风—暴雨—泥石流	AIII-2		3
			台风—暴雨—滑坡/ 崩塌		AIV		台风—暴雨—滑坡	AIV-1		3
			台风—暴雨—滑坡/ 崩塌		AIV		台风—暴雨—崩塌	AIV-2		3
		海域B	台风—风暴潮(海浪)		BI		台风—风暴潮(海浪)	BI-1		2
海岸带		平原海岸C	台风—风暴潮(海浪)		CI		台风—风暴潮(海浪)	CI-1		2
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪水	CI-2		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—渍涝	CI-3		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪涝	CI-4		3
			台风—暴雨—洪涝		CII		台风—暴雨—洪涝	CII-1		3
							台风—暴雨—渍涝	CII-2		3
							台风—暴雨—洪水	CII-3		3
		山地海岸D	台风—风暴潮(海浪)		DI		台风—风暴潮(海浪)	DI-1		2
			台风—暴雨—山洪		DIII		台风—暴雨—山洪	DIII-1		3
			台风—暴雨—滑坡/崩塌/泥石流		DIV		台风—暴雨—滑坡	DIV-1		3
			台风—暴雨—滑坡/崩塌/泥石流		DIV		台风—暴雨—崩塌	DIV-2		3
海岸带		山地海岸D	台风—暴雨—滑坡/崩塌/泥石流				台风—暴雨—泥石流	DIV-3		3
		河口海岸E	台风—风暴潮(海浪)		EI		台风—风暴潮(海浪)	EI-1		2
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪水	EI-2		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—洪涝	EI-4		3
							台风—风暴潮(海浪)—海水倒灌	EI-5		3
			台风—暴雨—洪涝		EII		台风—暴雨—洪涝	EII-1		3
		河口海岸E	台风—暴雨—洪涝		EII		台风—暴雨—涝渍	EII-2		3
		河口海岸E	台风—暴雨—洪涝		EII		台风—暴雨—洪水	EII-3		3
地理环境大类	地貌子类（代码）			灾害链大类	代码	灾害链子类			代码		链元数
陆地	山地(丘陵)F			台风—暴雨—山洪	FIII	台风—暴雨—山洪			FIII-1		3
				台风—暴雨—滑坡/崩塌/泥石流	FIV	台风—暴雨—滑坡			FIV-1		3
						台风—暴雨—崩塌			FIV-2		3
						台风—暴雨—泥石流			FIV-3		3
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—滑坡			FIV-4		4
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—泥石流			FIV-5		4
						台风—暴雨—滑坡—泥石流			FIV-6		4
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—堰塞湖			FIV-7		4
						台风—暴雨—滑坡—堰塞湖			FIV-8		4
						台风—暴雨—泥石流—堰塞湖			FIV-9		4
	平原G			台风—暴雨—洪涝	GII	台风—暴雨—洪涝			GII-1		3
						台风—暴雨—渍涝			GII-2		3
						台风—暴雨—洪水			GII-3		3
	高原(台地)H			台风—暴雨—洪涝	HII	台风—暴雨—洪涝			HII-1		3
						台风—暴雨—渍涝			HII-2		3
						台风—暴雨—洪水			HII-3		3
				台风—暴雨—山洪	HIII	台风—暴雨—山洪			HIII-1		3
				台风—暴雨—滑坡/崩塌/泥石流	HIV	台风—暴雨—滑坡			HIV-1		3
						台风—暴雨—崩塌			HIV-2		3
						台风—暴雨—泥石流			HIV-3		3
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—滑坡			HIV-4		4
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—泥石流			HIV-5		4
						台风—暴雨—滑坡—泥石流			HIV-6		4
						台风—暴雨—崩塌—堰塞湖			HIV-7		4
						台风—暴雨—滑坡—堰塞湖			HIV-8		4
						台风—暴雨—泥石流—堰塞湖			HIV-9		4

表2

表3

图1

图2

图3

图4

表4

台风灾害链类型数量统计"

大类代码		子类代码		案例数量														占比率（%）													总占比率（%）
大类代码		子类代码		WP				NI				NA		EP		SP		SI		WP		NI		NA		EP		SP		SI	WP		NI		NA	EP	SP		SI
AI		AI-1		10		0		24		2		10		5				71.4		-		70.6		100		43.5		50			2.94		0		4.39	1.45	9.71		7.04
		AI-2		3		0		7		0		6		1				21.4		-		20.6		0		26.1		10			0.88		0		1.28	0	5.83		1.41
		AI-3		1		0		1		0		2		2				7.1		-		2.9		0		8.7		20			0.29		0		0.18	0	1.94		2.82
		AI-4		0		0		2		0		5		2				0		-		5.9		0		21.7		20			0		0		0.37	0	4.85		2.82
AII		AII-1		7		0		20		1		23		5				38.9		0		39.2		33.3		71.9		55.6			2.06		0		3.66	0.72	22.3		7.04
		AII-2		5		1		13		0		2		1				27.8				100		25.5		0		6.3			11.1		1.47			1.05		2.38	0	1.94	1.41
		AII-3		6		0		18		2		7		3				33.3				0		35.3		66.7		21.9			33.3		1.76			0		3.29	1.45	6.80	4.23
AIII		AIII-1		2		0		12		1		1		1				66.7		-		63.2		100		100		100			0.59		0		2.19	0.72	0.97		1.41
AIII		AIII-2		1		0		7		0		0		0				33.2				-		36.8		0		0			0		0.29			0		1.28	0	0	0
AIV		AIV-1		6		0		10		0		5		1				100		-		100		-		100		100			1.76		0		1.83	0	4.85		1.41
AIV		AIV-2		0		0		0		0		0		0				0				-		0		-		0			0		0			0		0	0	0	0
BI		BI-1		-		-		-		-		-		-				-		-		-		-		-		-			-		-		-	-	-		-
CI		CI-1		18		10		43		16		7		6				64.3		90.9		46.7		72.7		63.6		85.7			5.29		10.5		7.86	11.6	6.80		8.45
		CI-2		6		1		23		6		1		0				21.4				9.1		25		27.3		9.1			0		1.76			1.05		4.20	4.35	0.97	0
		CI-3		2		0		13		0		1		1				7.1				0		14.1		0		9.1			14.3		0.59			0		2.38	0	0.97	1.41
		CI-4		2		0		13		0		2		0				7.1				0		14.1		0		18.2			0		0.59			0		2.38	0	1.94	0
CII		CII-1		20		6		10		4		6		3		32.3		60		23.3		19		50		37.5		5.88		6.32		1.83	2.90	5.83		4.23
CII		CII-2		16		1		10		6		0		2		25.8				100		23.3		28.6		0		25		4.71			1.05		1.83	4.35	0		2.82
CII		CII-3		26		3		23		11		6		3		41.9		30		53.5		52.4		50		37.5		7.65		3.16		4.20	7.97	5.83		4.23
DI		DI-1		2		0		9		0		0		0		100		-		100		-		-		-		0.59		0		1.65	0	0		0
DIII		DIII-1		0		0		1		0		0		0		-		-		100		-		-		-		0		0		0.18	0	0		0
DIV		DIV-1		0		0		0		0		0		0		-		-		-		-		-		-		0		0		0	0	0		0
		DIV-2		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				-		-		-		-		-		0			0		0	0	0		0
		DIV-3		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				-		-		-		-		-		0			0		0	0	0		0
EI		EI-1		7		13		19		2		4		2		58.3		86.7		37.3		66.7		100		66.7		2.06		13.6		3.47	1.45	3.88		2.82
		EI-2		4		0		10		1		0		0		33.3				0		19.6		33.3		0		0		1.18			0		1.83	0.72	0		0
		EI-3		0		1		2		0		0		0		0				6.7		3.9		0		0		0		0			1.05		0.37	0	0		0
		EI-4		0		1		6		0		0		1		0				6.7		11.8		0		0		33.3		0			1.05		1.10	0	0		1.41
		EI-5		1		0		14		0		0		0		8.3				0		27.5		0		0		0		0.29			0		2.56	0	0		0
EII		EII-1		4		12		8		3		0		2		40		63.2		47.1		100		-		50		1.18		12.6		1.46	2.17	0		2.82
大类代码	子类代码		案例数量														占比率（%）														总占比率（%）
大类代码	子类代码		WP				NI				NA		EP		SP		SI		WP		NI		NA		EP		SP		SI		WP	NI		NA		EP		SP		SI
EII	EII-2		2		2		2		0		0		1				20		10.5		11.8		0		-		25				0.59	2.11		0.37		0		0		1.41
EII	EII-3		4		5		7		0		0		1				40		26.3		41.2		0		-		25				1.18	5.26		1.28		0		0		1.41
FIII	FIII-1		25		0		31		13		1		2				100		-		100		100		100		100				7.35	0		5.67		9.42		0.97		2.82
FIV	FIV-1		68		4		20		7		2		3				73.9		100		37.7		30.4		100		100				20	4.21		3.66		5.07		1.94		4.23
	FIV-2		2		0		0		2		0		0				2.2				0		0		8.7		0				0		0.59			0		0		1.45	0	0
	FIV-3		22		0		33		14		0		0				23.9				0		62.3		60.9		0				0		6.47			0		6.03		10.1	0	0
	FIV-4		0		0		0		0		0		0				0				0		0		0		0				0		0			0		0		0	0	0
	FIV-5		0		0		0		0		0		0				0				0		0		0		0				0		0			0		0		0	0	0
	FIV-6		0		0		0		0		0		0		0				0		0		0		0		0		0			0		0		0		0		0
	FIV-7		0		0		0		0		0		0		0				0		0		0		0		0		0			0		0		0		0		0
	FIV-8		0		0		0		0		0		0		0				0		0		0		0		0		0			0		0		0		0		0
	FIV-9		0		0		0		0		0		0		0				0		0		0		0		0		0			0		0		0		0		0
GII	GII-1		15		18		31		4		5		8		22.1		66.7		27.4		12.1		41.7		36.4		4.41	19		5.67		2.90		4.85		11.27
	GII-2		16		4		22		7		1		3		23.5				14.8		19.5		21.2		8.3		13.6		4.71			4.21		4.02		5.07		0.97		4.23
	GII-3		37		5		60		22		6		11		54.4				18.5		53.1		66.7		50		50		10.88			5.26		10.97		15.94		5.83		15.49
HII	HII-1		0		3		2		2		0		0		-		37.5		33.3		28.6		-		0		0	3.16		0.37		1.45		0		0
	HII-2		0		1		1		3		0		0		-				12.5		16.7		42.9		-		0		0			1.05		0.18		2.17		0		0
	HII-3		0		2		3		2		0		1		-				25		50		28.6		-		100		0			2.11		0.55		1.45		0		1.41
HIII	HIII-1		0		0		9		5		0		0		-		-		100		100		-		-		0	0		1.65		3.62		0		0
HIV	HIV-1		0		1		4		0		0		0		-		50		50		0		-		-		0	1.05		0.73		0		0		0
	HIV-2		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-3		0		1		4		2		0		0		-				50		50		100		-		-		0			1.05		0.73		1.45		0		0
	HIV-4		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-5		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-6		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-7		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-8		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0
	HIV-9		0		0		0		0		0		0		-				0		0		0		-		-		0			0		0		0		0		0

表4

表5

参考文献 21

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基于孕灾环境的全球台风灾害链分类与区域特征分析

Classification and regional features analysis of global typhoon disaster chains based on hazard-formative environment

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大类代码	子类代码	强度（加权平均值）						大类代码	子类代码	强度（加权平均值）
大类代码	子类代码	WP			NI	NA	EP	SP		SI	WP	NI	NA	EP	SP	SI
AI	AI-1	4.1	-	2.5	2.5	2.6	2.5	EII		EII-1	3.2	0.7	2.1	0.0	-	2.0
	AI-2	4.3	-	3.2	-	2.7	0.0			EII-2	2.8	0.0	1.5	-	-	3.0
	AI-3	5.0	-	4.0	-	5.0	5.0			EII-3	2.3	1.6	1.3	-	-	3.0
	AI-4	-	-	0.0	-	4.3	5.0	FIII		FIII-1	3.1	-	1.8	1.2	4.0	4.5
AII	AII-1	4.0	-	2.2	2.0	3.0	3.5	FIV		FIV-1	3.1	2.0	2.3	1.7	0.3	1.5
	AII-2	3.4	0.5	2.0	-	2.7	4.0			FIV-2	5.0	-	-	1.0	-	-
	AII-3	4.2	-	2.2	2.5	2.6	2.3			FIV-3	3.0	-	2.3	1.1	-	-
AIII	AIII-1	4.5	-	2.2	4.0	3.0	4.0		FIV-4	-	-	-	-	-	-
AIII	AIII-2	4.0	-	2.1	-	-	-		FIV-5	-	-	-	-	-	-
AIV	AIV-1	3.7	-	3.2	-	2.0	4.0		FIV-6	-	-	-	-	-	-
AIV	AIV-2	-	-	-	-	-	-		FIV-7	-	-	-	-	-	-
BI	BI-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	FIV-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
CI	CI-1	3.7	2.5	2.3	2.3	1.5	2.4	FIV-9	-	-	-	-	-	-
	CI-2	4.0	4.0	2.4	2.7	0.0	-	GII	GII-1	3.4	1.5	2.0	1.0	1.0	2.8
	CI-3	3.5	-	3.3	-	2.0	4.5		GII-2	2.9	0.0	2.1	3.0	1.0	1.7
	CI-4	4.0	-	2.2	-	0.0	-		GII-3	2.5	0.4	2.0	2.6	1.2	2.6
CII	CII-1	2.8	2.4	2.0	2.2	0.5	2.7	HII	HII-1	-	1.0	1.0	1.0	-	-
	CII-2	2.9	0.0	1.3	2.7	-	3.7		HII-2	-	1.0	2.0	3.0	-	-
	CII-3	3.0	0.0	2.4	1.8	1.4	3.5		HII-3	-	0.0	3.0	0.7	-	3.0
DI	DI-1	4.0	-	1.2	-	-	-	HIII	HIII-1	-	-	2.3	3.0	-	-
DIII	DIII-1	-	-	4.0	-	-	-	HIV	HIV-1	-	2.0	2.3	-	-	-
DIV	DIV-1	-	-	-	-	-	-		HIV-2	-	-	-	-	-	-
	DIV-2	-	-	-	-	-	-		HIV-3	-	1.0	2.2	4.0	-	-
	DIV-3	-	-	-	-	-	-	HIV-4	-	-	-	-	-	-
EI	EI-1	2.9	0.9	4.0	3.0	1.0	2.0	HIV-5	-	-	-	-	-	-
	EI-2	3.0	-	1.9	2.5	-	-	HIV-6	-	-	-	-	-	-
	EI-3	-	4.0	2.3	-	-	-	HIV-7	-	-	-	-	-	-
	EI-4	-	4.0	0.0	-	-	4.0	HIV-8	-	-	-	-	-	-
	EI-5	2.0	-	2.9	-	-	-	HIV-9	-	-	-	-	-	-