近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201605005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用GAEZ模型,综合考虑气象、土壤、地形等因素,估算1961-2010年东北玉米生产潜力,分析50年来气候变化导致的东北玉米生产潜力时空格局演变特征。研究发现：① 1961-2010年,东北玉米平均生产潜力波动较大,整体上以每10年80 kg/hm²的线性倾向率增加;② 由于气候变化,20世纪末、21世纪初玉米生产潜力变化较为频繁;③ 玉米生产潜力总值黑龙江省始终处于最高,近50年间增长幅度黑龙江省>吉林省>辽宁省;④ 近50年来,黑龙江省玉米生产潜力的波动较为剧烈,吉林省和辽宁省相对稳定;⑤ 近50年东北玉米适宜种植区有所增加,主要集中在黑龙江省西北地区,高生产潜力区域增加明显,呈现北移趋势。研究可为东北地区高效利用气候和土地资源,优化玉米生产布局提供依据。

关键词: 气候变化, 玉米, 生产潜力, GAEZ模型, 东北地区

Abstract:

Using GAEZ (Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model, the agro-climatic constraints, soil, topography and other factors were used to estimate maize production potential in Northeast China during 1961-2010, and the spatial and temporal patterns of maize production potential caused by climate change in this region in the past 50 years were analyzed. Results are shown as follows: (1) The average maize production potential had a larger fluctuation in Northeast China during 1961-2010. The maize production potential increased by 80.00 kg/hm²per decade in Northeast China in the past 50 years; (2) Frequent changes of the maize production potential took place at the turn of the 20th century due to the changes in climate; (3) Heilongjiang province saw the highest total production potential of maize, namely, the increasing range of maize production potential was the highest, followed by Jilin province, and Liaoning province was the lowest in the past 50 years; (4) The production potential of maize fluctuated dramatically in Heilongjiang in the years of 1961-2010, while Jilin and Liaoning were in a relatively stable state; (5) In the past 50 years, maize suitable planting areas slightly increased in Northeast China, which was mostly found in the northwestern Heilongjiang. Meanwhile, the area with higher production potential increased significantly and showed the trend of northward movement. This study provides a theoretical basis for efficient utilization of climate and land resources and the optimization of maize production distribution.

Key words: climate change, maize, production potential, GAEZ model, Northeast China

杜国明, 张露洋, 徐新良, 王介勇. 近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(5): 864-874.

Guoming DU, Luyang ZHANG, Xinliang XU, Jieyong WANG. Spatial-temporal characteristics of maize production potential change under the background of climate change in Northeast China over the past 50 years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(5): 864-874.

图/表 12

图1

图2

图3

表1

图4

图5

图6

图7

表2

图8

图9

图10

参考文献 23

[1]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2014.
[2]	《第三次气候变化国家评估报告》编写委员会. 第三次气候变化国家评估报告. 北京: 科学出版社, 2015.
	[Editing Commission of the Third National Report on Climate Change of China. The Third National Report on Climate Change. Beijing: Science Press, 2015.]
[3]	覃志豪, 唐华俊, 李文娟, 等. 气候变化对农业和粮食生产影响的研究进展与发展方向. 中国农业资源与区划, 2013, 34(5): 1-7. doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501
	[Qin Zhihao, Tang Huajun, Li Wenjuan, et al.Progress and directions in studying the impacts of climate change on agriculture and grain production in China. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2013, 34(5): 1-7.] doi: 10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130501
[4]	杨晓光, 刘志娟, 陈阜. 全球气候变暖对中国种植制度可能影响(I): 气候变暖对中国种植制度北界和粮食产量可能影响的分析. 中国农业科学, 2010, 43(2): 329-336.
	[Yang Xiaoguang, Liu Zhijuan, Chen Fu.The possible effects of global warming on cropping systems in China (I): The possible effects of climate warming on northern limits of cropping systems and crop yields in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2010, 43(2): 329-336.]
[5]	卞娟娟, 郝志新, 郑景云, 等. 1951-2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动. 地理研究, 2013, 32(7): 1179-1187.
	[Bian Juanjuan, Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, et al.The shift on boundary of climate regionalization in China from 1951 to 2010. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(7): 1179-1187.]
[6]	李祎君, 王春乙, 赵蓓, 等. 气候变化对中国农业气象灾害与病虫害的影响. 农业工程学报, 2010, 26(S1): 263-271.
	[Li Yijun, Wang Chunyi, Zhao Bei, et al.Effects of climate change on agricultural meteorological disaster and crop insects diseases. Transactions of the CSAE, 2010, 26(S1): 263-271.]
[7]	奥德姆. 生态学基础. 北京: 人民教育出版社, 1981.
	[Odum E P. Ecology Foundation.Beijing: Renmin Education Press, 1981.]
[8]	杨重一, 庞士力, 孙彦坤. 作物生产潜力研究现状与趋势. 东北农业大学学报, 2008, 39(7): 140-144. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-9369.2008.07.031
	[Yang Zhongyi, Pang Shili, Sun Yankun.Current status and trend of crop potential productivity. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University, 2008, 39(7): 140-144.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-9369.2008.07.031
[9]	段增强, 宋静, 黄秀兰, 等. 耕地粮食生产能力估算模型研究进展. 东北农业大学学报, 2012, 43(8): 139-144. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-9369.2012.08.029
	[Duan Zengqiang, Song Jing, Huang Xiulan, et al.Study on the models of cultivated grain production capacity. Journal of Northeast Agricultural University, 2012, 43(8): 139-144.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-9369.2012.08.029
[10]	马树庆, 王琪, 罗新兰. 基于分期播种的气候变化对东北地区玉米(Zea mays)生长发育和产量的影响. 生态学报, 2008, 28(5): 2131-2139.
	[Ma Shuqing, Wang Qi, Luo Xinlan.Effect of climate change on maize (Zea mays) growth and yield based on stage sowing. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008, 28(5): 2131-2139.]
[11]	Fischer G, Sun L X.Model based analysis of future land-use development in China. Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment, 2001, 85(1/3): 163-176. doi: 10.1016/S0167-8809(01)00182-7
[12]	Fischer G, Shah M, van Velthuizen H, et al. Agro-ecological zones assessments: Land use and land cover. In: Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO. Oxford, UK: Eolss Publishers, 2006.
[13]	纪瑞鹏, 张玉书, 姜丽霞, 等. 气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响. 地理研究, 2012, 31(2): 290-298.
	[Ji Ruipeng, Zhang Yushu, Jiang Lixia, et al.Effect of climate change on maize production in Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(2): 290-298.]
[14]	魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.
	[Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007.]
[15]	王石立, 庄立伟, 王馥棠. 近20年气候变暖对东北农业生产水热条件影响的研究, 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2): 152-164. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.02.003
	[Wang Shili, Zhuang Liwei, Wang Futang.Impacts of climate warming on thermal and moisture conditions in Northeast China in recent 20 years. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2003, 14(2): 152-164.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2003.02.003
[16]	贺伟, 布仁仓, 熊在平, 等. 1961-2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势. 生态学报, 2013, 33(2): 0519-0531. doi: 10.5846/stxb201111241799
	[He Wei, Bu Rencang, Xiong Zaiping, et al.Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Northeastern China from 1961 to 2005. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(2): 0519-0531.] doi: 10.5846/stxb201111241799
[17]	刘博, 杨晓光, 王式功. 东北地区主要粮食作物气候生产潜力估算与分析. 吉林农业科学, 2012, 37(3): 57-60. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8701.2012.03.016
	[Liu Bo, Yang Xiaoguang, Wang Shigong.Calculation and analysis of climate productive potential of major grain crops in Northeast China. Journal of Jilin Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 37(3): 57-60.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-8701.2012.03.016
[18]	王静, 杨晓光, 吕硕, 等. 黑龙江省春玉米产量潜力及产量差的时空分布特征. 中国农业科学, 2012, 45(10): 1914-1925. doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.10.004
	[Wang Jing, Yang Xiaoguang, Lv Shuo, et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of potential yields and yield gaps of spring maize in Heilongjiang province. Scientia Agricultura Sinica, 2012, 45(10): 1914-1925.] doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2012.10.004
[19]	周秀杰, 王凤玲, 吴玉影, 等. 近60年来黑龙江与东北及全国气温变化特点分析. 自然灾害学报, 2013, 22(2): 124-129.
	[Zhou Xiujie, Wang Fengling, Wu Yuying, et al.Analysis of temperature change characteristics of Heilongjiang Province, northeast China and whole country in recent 60 years. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2013, 22(2): 124-129.]
[20]	徐新创, 张学珍, 戴尔阜, 等. 1961-2010年中国降水强度变化趋势及其对降水量影响分析. 地理研究, 2014, 33(7): 1335-1347. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407013
	[Xu Xinchuang, Zhang Xuezhen, Dai Erfu, et al.Research of trend variability of precipitation intensity and their contribution to precipitation in China from 1961 to 2010. Geographical Research, 2014, 33(7): 1335-1347.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201407013
[21]	杜国明, 刘彦随, 刘阁. 黑龙江省近30年来粮食生产变化及增产因素分析. 农业现代化研究, 2014, 35(5): 519-524.
	[Du Guoming, Liu Yansui, Liu Ge.The analysis of changes in grain production and driving factors in Heilongjiang province recent 30 years. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014, 35(5): 519-524.]
[22]	吴海燕, 孙甜田, 范作伟, 等. 东北地区主要粮食作物对气候变化的响应及其产量效应. 农业资源与环境学报, 2014, 31(4): 299-307. doi: 10.13254/j.jare.2014.0087
	[Wu Haiyan, Sun Tiantian, Fan Zuowei, et al.The major food crops in response to climate change and its yield effect in Northeast of China. Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment, 2014, 31(4): 299-307.] doi: 10.13254/j.jare.2014.0087
[23]	张春华, 王宗明, 居为民, 等. 松嫩平原玉米带农田土壤氮密度时空格局. 生态学报, 2012, 32(4): 1220-1229. doi: 10.5846/stxb201012231834
	[Zhang Chunhua, Wang Zongming, Ju Weimin, et al.Spatial and temporal variations of total nitrogen density in agricultural soils of the Songnen Plain Maize Belt. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2012, 32(4): 1220-1229.] doi: 10.5846/stxb201012231834

	<1000 kg/hm²	1000~3000 kg/hm²	3000~5000 kg/hm²	5000~7000 kg/hm²	7000~9000 kg/hm²	>9000 kg/hm²
黑龙江	11.31	13.36	12.78	17.90	27.92	16.73
吉林	14.47	18.55	20.36	19.59	20.22	6.81
辽宁	17.40	20.73	16.06	17.36	17.05	11.41

	总生产潜力变化幅度（10⁴t/10a）	年均生产潜力平均值（kg/hm²）	平均生产潜力变化幅度（kg/(hm²·10a)）
黑龙江	5457.6	4679.02	134.17
吉林	934.34	4477.94	47.61
辽宁	54.64	4495.02	6.68