地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (5): 875-884.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201605006

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于生态足迹的天山北坡经济带生态承载力评价与预测

向秀容1,2, 潘韬1, 吴绍洪1, 刘卫东3, 马丽3, 王晓峰2, 尹云鹤1, 李静4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐 830054
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    4. 环境保护部卫星环境应用中心,北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-05 修回日期:2016-03-14 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-05-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:向秀容(1990- )女,重庆丰都人,硕士,研究方向为少数民族地区资源与环境经济学。E-mail: 1326510409@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院科技服务网络计划(STS计划)项目(KFJ-EW-STS-003);新疆师范大学地理学博士点支撑学科开放基金(XJNU-DL-2014-22)

Assessment and prediction of ecological carrying capacity for the Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains

Xiurong XIANG1,2, Tao PAN1, Shaohong WU1, Weidong LIU3, Li MA3, Xiaofeng WANG2, Yunhe YIN1, Jing LI4   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Geography and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. Satellite Environment Center, Ministry of Environment Protection, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2015-12-05 Revised:2016-03-14 Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-05-10

摘要:

生态承载力是测度区域社会经济发展对资源与环境系统压力程度的重要标尺。基于生态足迹法,构建生态承载力的评价与预测模型,分别评价和预测了2010年与2015年天山北坡经济带的生态足迹和承载力。结果表明:2010年天山北坡经济带生态足迹组分以草地和能源用地为主,约占足迹总量的93%,人均生态承载力总体高于人均生态足迹;2015年生态承载状况仍然总体盈余。但随着人口快速增长以及人均消费能力提高,2015年人均生态承载力已经低于2010年水平,城镇化对未利用地的开发形成用地总量供给的增加可能是维持生态盈余的主要原因之一。经济发展与城镇化进程对区域可持续发展造成一定压力,需要对资源环境承载能力加强监测预警。

关键词: 生态足迹, 生态承载力预测, 天山北坡经济带, 可持续发展

Abstract:

A balanced ecological carrying capacity is important to achieve sustainable development for human enterprise. However, few studies have predicted the ecological carrying capacity after a regional development planning such as Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains (NSEBTM) which is an important node area of Silk Road Economic Belt. Here, we use the "Ecological Footprint" method to assess and predict the NSEBTM's ecological carrying capacity of years 2010 and 2015 respectively. Results show that grassland and energy-oriented land are the main components of the ecological footprints in 2010 which takes about 93% of the total. The per capita ecological carrying capacity is higher than per capita ecological footprint which shows the study area is in a good ecological carrying status and has ecological surplus. For 2015, the ecological carrying status of NSEBTM is still in a good condition and most areas of the region have ecological surplus. However, because of the fast growth of population and consuming level of local residents, the ecological carrying capacity of 2015 is lower than that of 2010. The utilization of unused land in the urbanization could provide more land. So the region can keep an ecological surplus status. The per capita ecological footprint of urban residents in 2010 and 2015 are the 1.974 and 2.3 times respectively of the rural residents. The urbanization has a certain pressure on regional sustainability. Resources and environmental carrying capacity need to be monitored and early warned.

Key words: ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity prediction, Northern Slope Economic Belt of Tianshan Mountains, sustainable development