基于土地利用变化的盐城海岸带生态风险评价

doi:10.11821/dlyj201606002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在GIS和RS技术支持下,以行政区划为评价单元,从景观结构角度构建生态风险评价模型,借助地统计分析及空间自相关分析方法,对盐城海岸带地区2000-2010年景观生态风险的时空分异特征进行定量评价。结果表明：2000-2010年,盐城海岸带地区整体生态环境质量有所下降。10年间,研究区生态风险平均值从0.35增长至0.39,高等级生态风险区不断增加。土地利用生态风险程度整体空间分异性不断增加,局部呈现高—高聚集和低—低聚集。较高风险区和高风险区主要分布于射阳县、大丰市大丰港以北的沿海区域以及东台弶港附近,其原因主要是随着沿海开发的推进,临港产业和临海城镇的发展,海岸带土地利用变化加剧,沿海地区生态系统稳定性被破坏。

关键词: 景观结构, 土地利用变化, 生态风险评价, 海岸带

Abstract:

Based on remote sensing data and land use data supported by the GIS and RS technologies, the land use changes and its transformation have been quantitatively analyzed in the coastal area in Yancheng city during 2000-2010. Furthermore, considering the land use changes and landscape structures with the help of geostatistical analyst and spatial autocorrelation analysis, the ecological risk assessment model has been set up. Thus, we quantitatively evaluated the spatial and temporal dynamic changes of landscape ecological risk. It is shown that the average ecological risk value of the entire region was 0.35 in 2000, and increased from 0.36 in 2005 to 0.39 in 2010. In recent 10 years, the moderate ecological risk level covered the biggest area of the study area; the area of extremely low risk and low ecological risk had no obvious change and mainly located in inland area; the area with high risk and extremely high risk expanded, and its proportion of the total land from 0 in 2000 rose to 14.89% in 2010; the area of high ecological risk increased significantly and was mainly distributed in coastal zone of Sheyang, Dongtai and Dafeng; the degree of ecological risk showed the banded structure clearly, and increased seawards. With the economic boom, especially port industry and new town development in the coastal areas, land use has intensively changed; as a result, the ecological risk increased continuously.

Key words: landscape structure, land use changes, ecological risk assessment, coastal area

周汝佳, 张永战, 何华春. 基于土地利用变化的盐城海岸带生态风险评价[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(6): 1017-1029.

Rujia ZHOU, Yongzhan ZHANG, Huachun HE. Ecological risk assessment based on land use changes in the coastal area in Yancheng city[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(6): 1017-1029.

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2000年	2005年
	耕地		林地		草地		水域		建设用地		未利用地
	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%
耕地	8463.17	99.54	0.99	0.01	0		6.70	0.08	31.09	0.37	0
林地	0		55.48	100.00	0		0		0		0
草地	0.01		33.30	9.48	292.20	83.22	22.45	6.40	3.16	0.9	0
水域	0.58	0.17	7.11	2.11	3.12	0.93	325.68	96.54	0.86	0.26	0
建设用地	10.27	0.83	0.24	0.02	0.18	0.01	1.55	0.13	1221.76	99.01	0
未利用地	0		0		0		0		0		0.14	100.00

2005年	2010年
	耕地		林地		草地		水域		建设用地		未利用地
	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%	km²	%
耕地	8200.16	96.77	0		0		30.53	0.36	219.04	2.58	24.32	0.29
林地	50.50	52.00	44.61	45.93	0		0.74	0.76	1.28	1.32	0
草地	13.94	4.72	0		180.96	61.24	57.27	19.38	21.35	7.23	21.95	7.43
水域	10.19	2.86	0		0.22	0.06	320.10	89.82	20.37	5.71	5.50	1.54
建设用地	4.76	0.38	0		5.92	0.47	198.62	15.80	1038.04	82.59	9.52	0.76
未利用地	0		0		0		0		0.14	100

景观类型	年份	斑块面积（km²)	面积占比（%）	斑块个数	破碎度	分离度	优势度	干扰度	脆弱度
耕地	2000	8501.95	81.13	180	0.0002	0.0081	0.6184	0.0644	0.1905
	2005	8474.04	80.86	172	0.0002	0.0079	0.6180	0.0643	0.1905
	2010	8279.56	78.78	196	0.0002	0.0087	0.6167	0.0644	0.1905
林地	2000	55.49	0.53	19	0.0034	0.4021	0.0202	0.1247	0.0952
	2005	97.13	0.93	61	0.0063	0.4116	0.0411	0.1314	0.0952
	2010	44.61	0.42	22	0.0049	0.5390	0.2032	0.1850	0.0952
草地	2000	351.08	3.35	79	0.0023	0.1296	0.0727	0.0475	0.1429
	2005	295.47	2.82	73	0.0025	0.1480	0.0674	0.0526	0.1429
	2010	187.10	1.78	64	0.0034	0.2192	0.0555	0.0734	0.1429
水域	2000	337.36	3.22	580	0.0172	0.3654	0.2184	0.1418	0.2381
	2005	356.38	3.40	564	0.0158	0.3411	0.2248	0.1343	0.2381
	2010	631.48	6.01	871	0.0138	0.2396	0.2747	0.1076	0.2381
建设用地	2000	1234.01	11.77	3521	0.0285	0.2461	0.4717	0.1381	0.0476
	2005	1256.87	11.99	3399	0.0270	0.2374	0.4900	0.1365	0.0476
	2010	1305.93	12.43	3349	0.0256	0.2271	0.4774	0.1313	0.0476
未利用地	2000	0.14	0.00	1	0.0731	37.4167	0.0006	11.2689	0.2857
	2005	0.14	0.00	1	0.0731	37.4167	0.0006	11.2689	0.2857
	2010	61.29	0.58	13	0.0021	0.3015	0.0180	0.0935	0.2857

年份	模型	块金值	基台值	变程	块金值/基台值（%）	决定系数	残差
2000	球状模型	0.0048	0.0124	56300	38.71	0.950	0.00003
2005	球状模型	0.0066	0.0170	62800	38.85	0.970	0.00004
2010	球状模型	0.0063	0.0212	78000	29.15	0.930	0.00002

	2000年			2005年			2010年
	km²		%		km²	%	km²	%
低生态风险区	327.92	3.12		536.70	5.11		394.28	3.75
较低生态风险区	3124.43	29.77		2764.46	26.34		1755.28	16.68
中生态风险区	7043.42	67.11		6941.10	66.13		6809.35	64.69
较高生态风险区	0.00	0.00		253.46	2.41		1230.11	11.69
高生态风险区	0.00	0.00		0.00	0.00		336.75	3.20