社会—生态系统体制转换视角下的黄土高原乡村转型发展——以长武县洪家镇为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201608009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

社会—生态系统理论为中国乡村转型发展的过程格局研究提供了新的分析思路,运用体制转化理论及其研究框架,选取陕西省长武县洪家镇为案例地,从村域尺度社会—生态系统体制变化为切入点揭示了当地乡村转型的背景和环境因素,重点探讨农户尺度的社会—生态系统体制转换影响因素及其稳健性,从微观角度审视西北乡村转型的基本特征,主要结论包括：① 当地乡村社会—生态系统体制已由传统农业体制转变为新型农业体制,其中某些家庭体制正在向非农体制转换。② 家庭特征是农户体制发生转换的客观条件;耕地质量、劳动力数量与质量是农户体制转换的内在动因;户主年龄、文化水平及社会网络是农户体制转换方向的决定因素。③ 农户家庭体制转换呈现出发散和聚合并存现象,且不同家庭的稳健性存在明显差异,基于种植业结构和收入对农户家庭进行分类,不同类型农户家庭体制的稳健型依次表现为其：苹果非农均衡型>非农收入主导型>粮食非农均衡型>苹果收入主导型>传统收入主导型。最后基于农户视角对乡村转型的微观研究进行探讨,并提出后续深化研究的方向和实践启示。

关键词: 乡村转型, 社会—生态系统（SESs）, 体制转换, 农户, 黄土高原

Abstract:

Socio-ecological systems theory offers a conceptual model that has not been applied in analyses of the process and evolution of rural transformation in China. Drawing on a system transformation theoretical framework, we selected the town of Hongjia in Changwu County as a case study to explore the context of local rural transformation and associated environmental factors. We examined village-level socio-ecological system changes, with a particular emphasis on influencing factors associated with regime shifts and the robustness of rural socio-ecological systems. Our findings were as follows. First, the local rural socio-ecological regime has evolved through the transformation of the traditional agricultural regime, with some of the household regimes shifting to a non-agricultural system. Second, family characteristics constitute the objective conditions for the transformation of household regimes. Internal factors driving the transformation process include: the quantity of the household's cultivated land as well as labor quality and quality. Furthermore, householders' ages, culture level, and social networks are major determinants of the direction of transformation of the household regime. Third, the shift in household regimes presents a scattered and aggregated pattern, with evident differences in the robustness of households. Rural households are classified according to the planting structure and households' incomes. Differences in the robustness of different types of rural households can, in turn, be expressed as follows: apple+non-agricultural production > non-agricultural production > grain + non-agricultural production > apple production > agricultural production. Lastly, we discuss the findings of this microstudy of rural transformation, and its practical implications, proposing future research directions.

Key words: rural transformation, socio-ecological systems, regime shift, rural household, Loess Plateau

王子侨, 石翠萍, 蒋维, 杨新军. 社会—生态系统体制转换视角下的黄土高原乡村转型发展——以长武县洪家镇为例[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(8): 1510-1524.

Ziqiao WANG, Cuiping SHI, Wei JIANG, Xinjun YANG. Rural transformation from the perspective of regime shifts of socio-ecological systems in the Loess Plateau:A case study of Hongjia town in Changwu county, China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(8): 1510-1524.

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	类型1	类型2	类型3	类型4	类型5
主要收入方式	苹果	苹果+非农业	非农业	粮食/养殖	粮食+非农业
状态命名	苹果收入主导型	苹果非农均衡型	非农收入主导型	传统收入主导型	粮食非农均衡型
农户比例（%）	45	28	20	3	4

		苹果种苗面积	粮食播种面积比	农业劳动力比	农业收入比
苹果种植面积	coefficient	1	-0.955^**	-0.795^**	-0.848^**
	Sig.		0.000	0.000	0.000
	N	33	33	33	33

		类型Ⅰ		类型Ⅱ		类型Ⅲ		类型Ⅳ			类型Ⅴ
状态变量		传统收入主导型		粮食非农均衡型		苹果收入主导型		苹果非农均衡型			非农主导型
劳动力投入结构（人）	劳动力	1.64		2.29		2.21		2.98			2.67
	务农人口	1.55	77%		0.93		38%	1.75	79%	1.64	56%	1.28	44%
	兼业人口	0.36	17%		0.86		45%	0.32	15%	0.52	22%	0.47	24%
	非农业人口	0.18	6%		0.64		26%	0.38	14%	1.04	32%	1.12	39%
土地利用结构（亩）	耕种面积	4.06		8.7		6.4		5.61			5.06
	粮食面积	3.09	70%		7.41		80%	2	28%	1.78	20%	2.84	48%
	果树面积	1.18	24%		1.68		15%	4.43	79%	3.89	75%	2.24	50%
	幼树面积	0.48	6%		1.14		5%	0.27	3%	0.14	5%	0.33	2%
收入结构（万元）	家庭总收入	1.32		2.66		4.09		5.73			4.77
	苹果收入	0.21	5%		0.06		3%	3.36	81%	2.81	49%	0.78	13%
	传统收入	0.74	52%		1.09		40%	0.23	7%	0.14	3%	0.23	6%
	非农业收入	0.07	4%		1.41		52%	0.31	6%	2.71	46%	3.68	78%
	补贴收入	0.30	38%		0.06		3%	0.17	5%	0.07	2%	0.08	3%

解释变量	模型Ⅰ			模型Ⅱ		模型Ⅲ			模型Ⅳ
解释变量	系数		标准误		系数	标准误	系数	标准误	系数	标准误
截距	19.97	14.81		0.878	3.89	-9.708	2.491		-2.869	2.247
家庭规模	-2.929	2.404		0.070^*	0.65	1.580^***	0.375		0.658^*	0.342
家庭生命周期	2.983	1.921		-0.183	0.581	-0.165	0.297		-0.697^**	0.301
家庭代数	1.345	2.597		1.079^*	1.088	1.021^*	0.582		0.076	0.561
家庭耕地面积	-0.325	0.344		0.03	0.099	-0.035	0.057		-0.075	0.067
耕地质量	1.626	1.358		-1.332^**	0.855	-1.006^*	0.601		-1.070^*	0.628
劳动力数量	-3.896^**	1.818		-0.379	0.745	0.941^**	0.428		-0.45	0.39
劳动力比重	-6.194^*	3.478		-2.038^*	3.091	8.136^***	2.121		-0.319	1.868
劳动力文化水平	-11.296^**	5.297		0.68	3.135	1.834	1.652		2.325^*	1.597
户主年龄	0.552^*	0.757		-0.454^*	0.418	-0.606^**	0.242		-0.156^*	0.227
户主文化水平	-0.511	2.331		-3.198	2.307	1.004^*	1.236		1.811^**	1.224
关系网络	-0.001^**	0.001		0.000^*	0	0.000^*	0		0.000^*	0

目标层	准则层	一级指标层	二级指标层	指标描述及赋值	指标性质	指标权重
农户体制稳健性指数	内外部扰动	外部扰动	自然灾害	家庭生计风险的农户感知,农户感知为生计风险赋值为1,否则赋值为0	-	0.1455
			苹果价格		-	0.1062
			苹果销路		-	0.0654
			失业风险		-	0.0249
		内部驱动	抚养系数	家庭中被抚养人口占总人口的比例	-	0.0272
			残疾或重病人口	家庭中残疾或重病人口数量	-	0.0098
			适婚男子数量	家庭中适婚男子数量,依据国家法定年龄22岁	-	0.0077
			借贷款	农户是否有借贷款债务,是为1,否为0	-	0.0684
	缓冲能力	人力资本	劳动力比重	家庭劳动力占总人口的比例	+	0.0275
		人力资本	劳动力受教育水平	家庭劳动力文化水平均值,不识字为,小学为0.25,初中为0.5,高中/中专/技校为0.75,大专及以上为1	+	0.0317
		经济资本	人均纯收入	家庭人均纯收入	+	0.0040
			存款	家庭是否有存款,是赋值为1,否赋值为0	+	0.1419
			收入多样性	家庭收入多样性指数Dincome	+	0.0265
		社会资本	关系网络	家庭年礼金数额	+	0.0537
			物资借用	邻里农用物资借用顺利性感知,分为1~5级,5为最顺利,1为最不顺利	+	0.0118
			帮助人数	可以提供资金帮助的亲友人数	+	0.0840
		物质资本	住房状况	房屋间数和用料等权重加权,土木结构赋值为0.5,砖混结构赋值为1	+	0.0216
		物质资本	生产工具及耐用消费品拥有情况	家庭生产工具及耐用消费品数量占被调查项目的比例	+	0.0399
		自然资本	拥有耕地面积	家庭所拥有的耕地面积	+	0.0246
		自然资本	种植结构多元化	家庭种植结构多元化指数Dlanduse	+	0.0779