中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比

doi:10.11821/dlyj201609006

地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 1659-1671.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201609006

中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比

刘斌¹(), 刘健^1,^2,³(), 王志远¹

1. 虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏省地理环境演化国家重点实验室培育建设点,南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
2. 江苏省大规模复杂系统数值模拟重点实验室,南京师范大学数学科学学院,南京 210023
3. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023

收稿日期:2016-03-07 修回日期:2016-07-14 出版日期:2016-09-10 发布日期:2016-09-23
作者简介:
作者简介：刘斌（1991- ）,男,山西寿阳人,博士研究生,主要从事气候模拟与全球变化研究。E-mail: gisliubin@126.com
基金资助:
高等学校博士学科点专项基金项目（20133207110015）;国家自然科学基金项目（41371209,41420104002）;江苏省高校自然科学研究重大项目（14KJA170002）;江苏高校优势学科建设项目（164320H116）

Inter-hemispheric comparison of characteristics and causes of climate change during the Medieval Warm Period based on CESM simulation

Bin LIU¹(), Jian LIU^1,^2,³(), Zhiyuan WANG¹

1. Key Laboratory for Virtual Geographic Environment, Ministry of Education; State Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Evolution, Jiangsu Provincial Cultivation Base; School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
2. Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems; School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
3. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China

Received:2016-03-07 Revised:2016-07-14 Online:2016-09-10 Published:2016-09-23

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用通用地球系统模式CESM过去1500年气候模拟试验结果,对比分析中世纪暖期南、北半球气候变化特征及成因,对认识南、北半球暖期气候变化规律及其与外强迫变化的关系有重要科学意义。结果表明：中世纪暖期全球及南、北半球总体是变暖的,但仍存在峰谷变化,高纬地区增温幅度大于低纬地区,北半球中世纪暖期比南半球更为明显,其距平变幅也大于南半球。全球降水距平基本为正,南、北半球降水变幅基本相当,降水变化显著区域集中于低纬地区。太阳辐射是影响中世纪暖期全球及半球气温变化最显著的因素,火山活动对北半球气温变化也有较显著的影响。从全球尺度来看,降水由太阳辐射和火山活动共同影响,其中太阳辐射影响最为显著,但从半球尺度来看,火山活动是影响半球降水的重要因素。

关键词: 中世纪暖期, 气候模拟, 北半球, 南半球, 气候变化

Abstract:

The characteristics and causes of the climate change over Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) are analyzed in this paper, based on the climatic simulation results over the past 1500 years using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Moreover, the commonality and difference in the variations of temperature and precipitation between the NH and SH are also investigated. Six experiments are compared in this study, including Control experiment (Ctrl), Total solar irradiation experiment (TSI), Volcanic eruptions experiment (Vol), Greenhouse gases experiment (GHGs), Land use and land cover change experiment (LUCC) and All forcings experiment (All). Based on the comparison of simulated results with observation and proxy records, the CESM’s performance of simulating MWP is verified. The characteristics of the simulated temperature and precipitation by the CESM show similarity to the observation and reconstructions. The results show that the MWP is a global phenomenon. However, the MWP is not a steady and continuous warm period, and there are peak-valley oscillation in it. The global climate is warm and moist as a whole during the MWP. Both the NH temperature variations and the SH temperature variations are generally consistent with those of the whole globe. During the MWP, the NH warming is more obvious than the SH warming and the temperature anomaly amplitude in the NH is significantly larger than the SH counterpart, because the land area of NH is larger than that of SH, and the SH is mainly covered by ocean. The high heat capacity of the ocean leads to the smaller anomaly amplitude of temperature change in the SH compared to its NH counterpart. Besides, during the MWP, the warming in the high latitudes of the NH and SH is stronger than that in the low latitudes. For the precipitation variations, the global mean precipitation anomaly is basically positive. But unlike the temperature, the amplitude of precipitation anomaly in the NH is almost equal to the SH counterpart. The significant precipitation change area is mainly distributed in the tropics. The main cause of the global and hemispheric temperature change is the total solar radiation during the MWP. Moreover, the volcanic eruption is also an important factor leading to the NH temperature change. In addition, the global precipitation change is caused by both the total solar radiation and the volcanic eruption, and the influence of the total solar radiation is more significant. However, for hemispheric precipitation change, the volcanic eruption is the most important factor for NH and SH precipitation change during the MWP.

Key words: Medieval Warm Period, climate simulation, Northern Hemisphere, Southern Hemisphere, climate change

刘斌, 刘健, 王志远. 中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(9): 1659-1671.

Bin LIU, Jian LIU, Zhiyuan WANG. Inter-hemispheric comparison of characteristics and causes of climate change during the Medieval Warm Period based on CESM simulation[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(9): 1659-1671.

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试验名称	简称	驱动因子	积分时间(模式年)
控制试验	Ctrl	与NCAR参加CMIP5控制试验设置相同^[33]	2400
太阳辐射敏感性试验	TSI	Shapiro等2000年重建结果^[29]	2000
火山活动敏感性试验	Vol	Gao等1500年重建结果^[30]	1500
温室气体敏感性试验	GHGs	Macfarling等2000年重建结果^[31]	2000
土地利用/覆盖敏感性试验	LUCC	Kaplan等2000年重建结果^[32]	2000
全强迫试验	All	太阳辐射+火山活动+温室气体+土地利用/土地覆被	2000

中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比

Inter-hemispheric comparison of characteristics and causes of climate change during the Medieval Warm Period based on CESM simulation

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