基于LMDI的中国工业污染排放变化影响因素分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201610005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在分析2001-2013年中国工业化特征分析基础上,运用Kaya方程将工业废水和废气排放分解为产值规模、高污染部门比重、产污系数和污染物来源部门结构四个因素,并运用LMDI因素分解法研究四个因素对污染物排放变化的贡献度。研究发现：2001年以来中国工业规模扩张对工业废水和废气排放增长呈正向拉动,单位产值污染物排放量的降低对污染物增长呈负向拉动。高污染部门在工业部门结构及污染物来源部门结构呈现不断增长趋势,其对污染物排放增长皆呈正向拉动,但其绝对值小于产值增长和单位产值污染物排放降低的作用。该现象主要归因于中国的环境治理重末端治理轻源头管控所致,因此建议中国环境管制应注重从产业结构入手,积极促进工业产业结构调整和产业链高级化。

关键词: 工业化, 污染物排放, 影响因素, LMDI因素分解法

Abstract:

With joining into global production network and undertaking international industrial transfer, China has become the world manufacture base with its cheaper labor, land and resource, which promotes a gradual increase of industrial output. While, new international division of labor has made China play a role of global basic raw materials and low-ranking equipment manufacturer and producer, which has led to the fact that the heavy industrialization and high proportion of basic sectors are become main characteristics of Chinese industrialization in recent decades. At the same time, huge scale of industrial development has caused serious environmental pollution, such as smog, water pollution, soil pollution and fragility of ecological environment. The discharges of some industrial pollutants have increased gradually with the industrial development. In order to understand the impact of Chinese industrial development on the change of environmental pollution, this paper built the Kaya Equation between Chinese industrial pollutants discharge with industrial scale, industrial structure (the proportion of high-pollutant loaded sectors in gross industrial output), pollution productive efficiency (the waste discharge per unit of gross industrial output) and waste discharge source structure from 2001 to 2013. Then, the contribution rates of four factors to the change of pollutants discharge were calculated with the approach of LMDI. It can be found that: (1) the expansion of Chinese industrial scale and decrease of pollutant discharge per unit of industrial output are two main factors affecting the change of industrial pollutant discharge. Huge increase of industrial output can lead to a distinct increase of industrial pollutants discharge, whose contribution rates to the change of industrial waste water discharge and gas emission are 6440% and 131% respectively. However, the industrial waste water discharge and waste gas emissions per unit of gross industrial output have been decreased greatly and relieved the increase of industrial pollutant discharge caused by scale expansion, whose contribution rates to the change of industrial waste water discharge and gas emissions are -7290% and -46% respectively. (2) End treatment of high pollutant-loaded sectors has made great contribution to the scale control of the total pollutant discharge, especially in the field of industrial waste water treatment. However, industrial restructuring has little contribution to the pollutant reduction, and their contribution rates to the growth of industrial waste water discharge and gas emissions are positive. This phenomenon may be caused by the Chinese government paying more attention to end treatment and technical upgrading than to structural adjustment. (3) So, this paper suggested that Chinese environment governance should put more concerns on industrial restructuring and industrial chain extension, and promote recycling economy of high-pollutant loaded sectors at the same time.

Key words: industrialization, environmental pollution discharge, factor decomposition, LMDI

马丽. 基于LMDI的中国工业污染排放变化影响因素分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(10): 1857-1868.

Li MA. Decomposition of China's industrial environmentpollution change based on LMDI[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(10): 1857-1868.

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行业	工业废水排放		行业	工业废气排放
行业	在排放总量中的比重(%)		单位产值排放量(t/万元）	在排放总量中的比重（%）	单位产值排放量(m³/元)
造纸及纸制品业	14.91	40.48	电力、热力生产和供应	33.68	12.14
化学原料和化学制品制造	13.87	4.31	黑色金属冶炼及压延加工	25.85	3.93
纺织业	11.21	17.53	非金属矿物制品业	17.98	7.77
煤炭开采和洗选业	7.46	11.26	有色金属冶炼及压延加工	4.88	1.72
农副食品加工业	7.26	9.99	化学原料和化学制品制造	4.71	0.51
电力、热力生产和供应	5.01	5.17	造纸及纸制品业	1.00	0.95
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工	4.95	2.15	农副食品加工业	0.76	0.36
有色金属矿采选业	2.76	26.41	纺织业	0.43	0.23
非金属矿物制品业	1.52	1.88	煤炭开采和洗选业	0.35	0.19
小计	68.965		小计	89.636

年份	工业产值规模（万元）	高污染部门比重（%）	工业废水排放			工业废气排放
年份	工业产值规模（万元）	高污染部门比重（%）	产污系数（t/万元）		污染物来源部门结构倒数	产污系数（m³/元）	污染物来源部门结构倒数
2001	53535.3	45.09	57.5	1.34		5.82	1.08
2002	60428.6	43.40	52.8	1.32		5.80	1.15
2003	70794.1	44.94	37.1	1.40		5.43	1.15
2004	89737.1	45.94	35.7	1.35		5.05	1.14
2005	111851.1	44.84	30.8	1.40		4.69	1.14
2006	142600.3	45.69	23.1	1.38		4.45	1.14
2007	183317.9	46.25	18.9	1.38		3.87	1.18
2008	220262.4	48.71	14.6	1.39		3.33	1.13
2009	229302.1	43.88	14.8	1.40		3.64	1.19
2010	281452.0	47.02	11.4	1.41		3.48	1.13
2011	450660.2	58.32	5.8	1.39		2.28	1.13
2012	368365.3	46.97	8.2	1.44		3.28	1.12
2013	375719.7	54.45	6.3	1.48		2.93	1.12

年份	工业废水排放量变化		产值规模因素		产业结构因素		产污系数因素		污染物来源部门因素
年份	绝对值 (万t)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (万t)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (万t)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (万t)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (万t)	贡献度 (%)
2001-2002	-22860	100	223559	-978	-70267	307	-154077	674	-22075	97
2002-2003	-183918	100	275584	-150	60374	-33	-617781	336	97905	-53
2003-2004	327958	100	429036	131	40017	12	-69113	-21	-71982	-22
2004-2005	181401	100	455493	251	-49972	-28	-300299	-166	76179	42
2005-2006	-79339	100	514866	-649	39746	-50	-611474	771	-22478	28
2006-2007	127126	100	538364	423	26035	20	-434323	-342	-2950	-2
2007-2008	-33791	100	402195	-1190	113362	-335	-569566	1686	20219	-60
2008-2009	-83475	100	85742	-103	-222436	266	39320	-47	13899	-17
2009-2010	28285	100	431239	1525	145321	514	-556799	-1969	8524	30
2010-2011	10451	100	999785	9566	457441	4377	-1420114	-13588	-26662	-255
2011-2012	-95409	100	-419603	440	-450452	472	701130	-735	73517	-77
2012-2013	-119377	100	39009	-33	291819	-244	-503267	422	53062	-44
2001-2013	57052	100	3674055	6440	355852	624	-4159203	-7290	186348	327

	工业废气排放量		产值规模因素		产业结构因素		产污系数因素		污染物来源部门因素
年份	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)
2001-2002	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	绝对值 (亿m³)	贡献度 (%)	22962	100	19776	86	-6216	-27	-533	-2	9935	43
2002-2003	24024	100	29569	123	6478	27	-12092	-50	69	0
2003-2004	38136	100	51584	135	4811	13	-15820	-41	-2440	-6
2004-2005	30871	100	55578	180	-6097	-20	-18611	-60	2	0
2005-2006	62938	100	72478	115	5595	9	-15533	-25	398	1
2006-2007	57149	100	90123	158	4358	8	-50163	-88	12830	22
2007-2008	15727	100	72696	462	20490	130	-59489	-378	-17969	-114
2008-2009	32197	100	16883	52	-43799	-136	37522	117	21591	67
2009-2010	83104	100	97626	117	32899	40	-22387	-27	-25034	-30
2010-2011	155342	100	279369	180	127822	82	-251749	-162	-100	0
2011-2012	-38990	100	-132037	339	-141744	364	238984	-613	-4193	11
2012-2013	33842	100	12895	38	96462	285	-72550	-214	-2964	-9
2001-2013	517302	100	680112	131	65872	13	-238978	-46	10295	2