生成周期视角下旅游业内部绩效评价及其影响机制——以张家界为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201610016

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在旅游业绩效内涵及相关理论研究基础上,界定旅游业内部绩效概念及其特征,从产业生成周期视角,评价和探讨旅游业内部绩效及其影响机制。采用1989-2013年张家界旅游相关数据,结合小波分析、耦合—协调模型和路径分析等研究方法,研究发现：① 出现期,张家界旅游处于投入阶段,产业结构极度失调,高度化上下波动,内部绩效均值为1.199;② 生成期,旅游经济快速增长,结构合理性中度失调,高度化周期波动,内部绩效均值为6.265,经济绩效表现较好;③ 发展期,旅游经济绩效经历了三次下降,产业结构优质协调,高度化在调整中稳步前进,内部绩效均值为47.885,结构绩效表现较好;④ 影响机制：总体来说,经济水平、交通、旅游总需求社会固定资产和政府支出是主要影响因子,但不同阶段作用机理有所差异。研究对张家界旅游业理性发展及可持续发展具有一定科学指导意义。

关键词: 产业生成周期, 旅游业内部绩效, 影响机制, 张家界

Abstract:

Based on the connotation and theoretical research of tourism industry performance, this paper defined the concept and characteristics of tourism internal performance, used the related data of Zhangjiajie from 1989 to 2013 and combined with wavelet analysis, coupling coordination model and path analysis to evaluate and discuss the development level and influence mechanism of tourism internal performance from the perspective of industry generation cycle. The study arrives at the following results: Firstly, emerging stage demonstrated an extremely imbalanced tourism industrial structure in Zhangjiajie as its progress experienced ups and downs with internal performance mean value at 1.199; in addition, tourism was mainly invested in construction during this period. Secondly, in generation stage, the progress of tourism industrial structure presented periodic fluctuations with internal performance mean value at 6.265, the rapid growth of tourism economy and moderately imbalanced industrial structure brought improved economic performance. Thirdly, in developing stage, the performance of tourism economy experienced three decreases, industrial structure was coordinated with high quality, its high development progressed steadily in adjustment, the internal performance mean value was 47.885, and the structural performance was good. What's more, influence mechanism of tourism internal performance varied in different stages with economic development, transportation, total tourism demand, social fixed assets and government expenditure as the key influencing factors. Finally, according to the research conclusions, this paper puts forward the optimization on the tourism internal performance from the perspective of transportation, tourism investment, government and tourism industrial structure. It is hoped that the research has certain reference value for the rational and sustainable development of tourism in Zhangjiajie.

Key words: industry generation cycle, tourism internal performance, influence mechanism, Zhangjiajie

麻学锋, 刘雨婧. 生成周期视角下旅游业内部绩效评价及其影响机制——以张家界为例[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(10): 1983-1998.

Xuefeng MA, Yujing LIU. Tourism internal performance evaluation and its influence mechanism from the perspective of generation cycle: A case study of Zhangjiajie[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(10): 1983-1998.

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目标层	系统层	指标层
旅游经济绩效（A）	旅游经营效益B₁（0.4689）	国内旅游收入C₁（0.2501）;国际旅游收入C₂（0.2484）;旅游收入占GDPC₃（0.1370）;国际旅游收入占地区出口总额C₄（0.3645）
	旅游就业贡献B₂（0.1051）	旅游直接就业人数C₅（0.4103）;旅游相关产业就业人数C₆（0.3036）;第三产业就业人数C₇（0.2861）
	旅游市场规模B₃（0.4260）	国内旅游人数C₈（0.2168）;入境旅游人数C₉（0.2685）;入境旅游人均花费C₁₀（0.0736）;国内旅游人数占第三产业就业人数C₁₁（0.1983）;入境旅游人数占第三产业就业人数C₁₂（0.2428）

结构模型	绝对适配指数					增值适配指数						精简适配指数
结构模型	χ²/df		GFI		AGFI	RMR	NFI	RFI	CFI	TLI	IFI	PCFI	PNFI	PGFI
理想值	1-3	>0.9	>0.9	<0.05		>0.9	>0.9	>0.9	>0.9	>0.9		0-1	0-1	>0.5
生成期模型	2.307	0.672	0.863	0.003		0.864	0.762	0.914	0.850	0.918		0.571	0.494	0.499
发展期模型	2.756	0.681	0.882	0.101		0.846	0.730	0.891	0.809	0.896		0.509	0.483	0.503