测量上海产业网络的点入度和点出度——超越后工业化社会的迷思

doi:10.11821/dlyj201611014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用上海市2007年144个部门投入产出表,计算基于投入产出完全消耗系数的点入度和点出度,将产业划分为Ⅰ型（高点入度、高点出度）,Ⅱ型（低点入度、高点出度）,Ⅲ型（低点入度、低点出度）,Ⅳ型（高点入度、低点出度）。研究发现：① Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型和Ⅳ型制造业点入度均值分别比各类型服务业高0.52、0.45、0.04、0.27,表明制造业相对服务业具有更强的后向拉动效应。② Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型服务业点出度均值分别高于Ⅱ型和Ⅳ型制造业0.29、0.16,而Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型服务业点出度均值分别小于Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型制造业0.32、0.17,表明服务业的前向拉动效应存在着分异。③ Ⅰ型、Ⅳ型制造业及服务业的点出度对GDP均具有正向的相关性,提高对这些产业的使用有利于提升GDP。Ⅱ型服务业的点入度对GDP具有负向的相关性,点入度较低的房地产开发经营业、银行业、证券业GDP分别为该类服务业前3名。Ⅱ型服务业点出度、Ⅲ型制造业和服务业点入度和点出度对GDP的回归系数均未通过显著性检验。尽管制造业GDP占比下降,制造业仍在上海产业网络中发挥着重要的作用。上海应超越后工业化的迷思,降低对房地产业的依赖,加强制造业与服务业的融合发展,特别是加强金融对制造业等实体经济的支持,提升产业网络关联多样性和非关联多样性,促进航空、航天、机器人等新兴产业的发展。

关键词: 后工业化社会, 投入—, 产出表, 上海, 点出度, 点入度, 完全消耗系数, 产业网络

Abstract:

： In 1973, Daniel Bell coined the term "post-industrial society". According to Bell, the era of the service economy is coming up and the role of manufacturing industries tends to decline. This study aims to explore the economic transition towards a 'post-industrial society' in Shanghai through the lens of an industrial input-out network. The empirical analysis is based on an input-output table among 144 industries in Shanghai for the year 2007. More specifically, an industrial network is created based on complete consumption coefficients and reveals direct and indirect connections among individual industries. Social network analysis is then applied to calculate in- and out-degrees of individual industries. The in-degree of an industry captures both direct and indirect inputs from all other industries to the industry under investigation, whereas the out-degree of an industry characterizes the (direct and indirect) flows from that industry. A typology of industries is identified based on individual industries' in- and out- degrees. The analysis further elaborates the difference between manufacturing and service sectors in terms of in- and out-degrees as well as characterizes the relationship between industrial connections and GDP growth. Despite the fact that manufacturing sector's share in GDP has been declining in the past few decades, the current study suggests that manufacturing maintains strategic positions within input-output networks among industries. In other words, manufacturing is still a relevant and integral part of Shanghai's economy. As for policy recommendations, the paper suggests that Shanghai should strengthen the integration of manufacturing and producer services, promote industrial clusters (i.e., improve related variety and unrelated variety among individual industries), as well as incubate emerging industries such as aerospace technology and engineering.

Key words: post-industrial society, input-output table, Shanghai, in-degree, out-degree, complete consumption coefficient, industrial network

李仙德. 测量上海产业网络的点入度和点出度——超越后工业化社会的迷思[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(11): 2185-2200.

Xiande LI. Measuring the in- and out-degrees of industrial networks in Shanghai: Beyond the myth of "Post-industrial Society"[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(11): 2185-2200.

图/表 10

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

表4

上海Ⅳ型产业点入度和点出度"

行业	点入度	点出度	行业	点入度	点出度
家用视听设备制造业	3.24	0.51	文教体育用品制造业	2.18	0.41
通信设备制造业	2.94	0.53	锅炉及原动机制造业	2.18	0.43
雷达及广播设备制造业	2.92	0.13	皮革、毛皮、羽毛（绒）及其制品业	2.18	0.25
家用电力和非电力器具制造业	2.85	0.60	其他食品制造业	2.17	0.66
其他电子设备制造业	2.70	0.30	其他服务业	2.17	0.40
文化、办公用机械制造业	2.66	0.54	调味品、发酵制品制造业	2.13	0.40
电线、电缆、光缆及电工器材制造业	2.64	1.77	地质勘查业	2.11	0.18
汽车制造业	2.59	1.35	船舶及浮动装置制造业	2.09	0.60
纺织制成品制造业	2.54	0.36	工艺品及其他制造业	2.07	0.25
农林牧渔专用机械制造业	2.52	0.08	石墨及其他非金属矿物制品制造业	2.07	0.57
其他交通运输设备制造业	2.52	0.79	木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业	2.05	0.84
其他电气机械及器材制造业	2.49	0.61	家具制造业	2.04	0.03
毛纺织和染整精加工业	2.48	0.63	铁路运输设备制造业	2.03	0.82
建筑装饰业	2.46	0.87	专业技术服务业	2.02	1.40
起重运输设备制造业	2.45	0.56	水产品加工业	2.02	0.63
针织品、编织品及其制品制造业	2.43	0.63	屠宰及肉类加工业	2.02	1.07
泵、阀门、压缩机及类似机械的制造业	2.42	1.48	液体乳及乳制品制造业	2.01	0.15
印刷业和记录媒介的复制业	2.41	1.12	纺织服装、鞋帽制造业	2.00	0.77
矿山、冶金、建筑专用设备制造业	2.41	0.37	管道运输业	1.99	0.31
房屋和土木工程建筑业	2.38	1.71	医药制造业	1.98	0.83
建筑安装业	2.37	0.60	其他房地产活动	1.98	0.76
其他专用设备制造业	2.37	0.92	玻璃及玻璃制品制造业	1.97	1.37
输配电及控制设备制造业	2.33	0.40	饲料加工业	1.96	0.61
金属加工机械制造业	2.30	0.41	农药制造业	1.95	0.65
橡胶制品业	2.26	1.11	日用化学产品制造业	1.91	0.44
其他建筑业	2.26	0.14	其他金融活动	1.91	0.57
化学纤维制造业	2.25	1.19	物业管理业	1.90	1.76
餐饮业	2.22	1.08	化工、木材、非金属加工专用设备制造业	1.90	0.12
电机制造业	2.20	0.90

表4

表5

表6

表7

表8

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行业	点入度	点出度	行业	点入度	点出度
商务服务业	2.07	13.23	塑料制品业	2.58	3.59
基础化学原料制造业	2.03	11.84	专用化学产品制造业	1.93	3.58
钢压延加工业	1.97	10.94	造纸及纸制品业	2.65	3.52
有色金属冶炼及合金制造业	2.59	7.48	棉、化纤纺织及印染精加工业	2.27	3.30
电子元器件制造业	2.68	6.95	装卸搬运和其他运输服务业	2.41	2.96
有色金属压延加工业	2.75	6.89	保险业	2.17	2.75
金属制品业	2.27	5.53	涂料、油墨、颜料及类似产品制造业	2.10	2.59
废品废料	3.14	5.05	植物油加工业	2.90	2.58
水上运输业	2.08	4.28	仪器仪表制造业	2.36	2.58
合成材料制造业	2.90	4.21	道路运输业	2.46	2.49
计算机服务业	1.95	3.66	航空运输业	2.30	2.47
电子计算机制造业	3.39	3.64	其他通用设备制造业	2.57	1.99

行业	点入度	点出度
电力、热力的生产和供应业	1.29	13.13
软件业	1.61	9.96
批发业	0.67	9.34
石油及核燃料加工业	1.66	8.99
银行业	0.75	8.53
石油和天然气开采业	0.57	8.14
煤炭开采和洗选业	0.00	6.41
零售业	0.88	5.56
电信和其他信息传输服务业	1.19	5.43
农业	1.22	3.79
证券业	1.07	2.97
黑色金属矿采选业	0.00	2.41
房地产开发经营业	0.92	2.28
租赁业	1.56	2.28
炼钢业	1.40	1.97

行业	点入度	点出度	行业	点入度	点出度
广播、电视、电影和音像业	1.88	0.28	酒精及酒的制造业	1.54	0.37
卫生	1.88	0.08	体育	1.52	0.00
畜牧业	1.86	0.75	铁合金冶炼业	1.51	0.47
燃气生产和供应业	1.85	1.57	新闻出版业	1.49	0.15
麻纺织、丝绢纺织及精加工业	1.84	0.16	谷物磨制业	1.48	0.87
环境管理业	1.83	0.07	耐火材料制品制造业	1.47	0.93
软饮料及精制茶加工业	1.83	0.22	林业	1.47	0.61
水泥及石膏制品制造业	1.83	0.60	炼焦业	1.43	0.75
旅游业	1.82	0.44	娱乐业	1.42	0.05
方便食品制造业	1.82	0.02	城市公共交通业	1.41	0.38
炼铁业	1.80	0.72	农、林、牧、渔服务业	1.39	0.09
渔业	1.80	1.40	房地产中介服务业	1.32	0.15
研究与试验发展业	1.78	0.71	邮政业	1.28	0.22
水的生产和供应业	1.77	0.32	社会福利业	1.22	0.01
仓储业	1.76	1.82	水利管理业	1.20	0.03
水泥、石灰和石膏制造业	1.73	1.88	铁路运输业	1.19	1.15
科技交流和推广服务业	1.71	0.11	文化艺术业	1.18	0.36
其他食品加工业	1.70	0.08	居民服务业	1.02	0.35
砖瓦、石材及其他建筑材料制造业	1.69	0.44	教育	0.83	0.30
肥料制造业	1.69	0.49	社会保障业	0.76	0.00
公共管理和社会组织	1.68	0.07	烟草制品业	0.43	0.16
公共设施管理业	1.64	0.14	非金属矿及其他矿采选业	0.00	1.67
陶瓷制品制造业	1.58	0.18	有色金属矿采选业	0.00	0.99
住宿业	1.55	0.86	制糖业	0.00	0.11

自变量	标准化回归系数	t	Sig.	R²
I型制造业点入度	-0.260	-1.041	0.314	0.067
I型制造业点出度	0.523^*	-2.375	0.0031	0.225
I型服务业点入度	-0.490	-1.255	0.265	0.240
I型服务业点出度	0.891^**	4.384	0.007	0.794

自变量	标准化回归系数	t	Sig.	R²
Ⅱ型服务业点入度	-0.888^**	-4.730	0.003	0.789
Ⅱ型服务业点出度	0.299	0.768	0.471	0.090