不同时间尺度周期的旅游客流量波动特征研究——以西藏林芝市为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201612013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用季节指数、滤波分析和集中指数、饱和曲线与峰值指数等方法,对林芝地区旅游客流波动特征从年际、月份和日变化三个尺度进行分析。结果表明：1990年-2014年,林芝地区旅游接待总人数呈现大幅度增长,绝大比例来自国内旅游;旅游发展经历了探索期（1990-2000年）、参与期（2001-2006年）和发展期（2007年至今）三个阶段;旅游季节性波动特征明显,且季节强度指数呈现出明显的“倒V”型,其中每年5月-10月为旅游旺季;相对于季节波动地区日变化更为突出,在五一、端午、十一等小长假期间出现高峰且节假日客流分布集中。分析认为,国家和地方的政策制度、交通可达性、突发事件对林芝地区旅游的发展影响很大,造成入林客流量不同程度的波动变化。

关键词: 旅游客流量, 时间尺度, 波动, 西藏林芝

Abstract:

Variation of tourist flow with time has been a major subject in mainstream tourism research. With the development of sustainable tourism and the change of post-modern tourism, frontier areas have become the popular place for adventure and experience among the young and middle-aged. These places have gradually evolved into tourist hotspots. Nyingchi, located in the southeast of Tibet, has a vast frontier with 13 minority groups. Hence, it spawns rich and unique natural resources and colorful mix of human resources. This article analyzes the tourist flow and spatial characteristics of this area and provides some suggestions for its tourism development. This article analyzes the dynamic features of the annual, monthly and daily tourist flows in Nyingchi using the filter analysis method under the seasonal index, concentration index, saturated curve, and the peak index. Results show that for the period from 1990 to 2014, the total number of visitors has risen since 2001, and achieves sustained growth, except 2008. Most of the visitors are domestic tourists. The industry went through three stages: the exploration period (1990-2000), the participation period (2001-2006) and the development period (2007 to present). Tourism presented seasonal dynamic features and its seasonal strength index showed an obvious 'inverted-V' shape. Peak season is from May to October; the daily variation is more prominent than its seasonal fluctuation. Tourist distribution is concentrated on May 1 and October 1 which are major holidays across the country. Analysis shows that national and local policies and traffic accessibility have a great impact on the development of the tourism industry in Nyingchi. Therefore, according to the time scale of the annual, monthly and daily fluctuation characteristics of Nyingchi, we should further strengthen domestic and foreign advertisement to attract tourists to Tibet. In addition, we should adjust the management and development strategy, and gain more tourism benefits in order to achieve sustainable development in the future.

Key words: the number of tourists, time scale, fluctuation, Nyingchi city, Tibet

吴江, 张秀香, 叶玲翠, 黄震方, 曹芳东. 不同时间尺度周期的旅游客流量波动特征研究——以西藏林芝市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(12): 2347-2362.

Jiang WU, Xiuxiang ZHANG, Lingcui YE, Zhenfang HUANG, Fangdong CAO. A time scale study on the tourist flow in Nyingchi, Tibet[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2016, 35(12): 2347-2362.

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检验值		t统计量	P值
ADF		4.046241	0.9999
临界值	1%	-2.664853
	5%	-1.955681
	10%	-1.608793

名称	HP周期	BK周期	CFa周期	CFb周期
HP周期	1.000	0.925	0.876	0.775
BK周期		1.000	0.990	0.947
CFa周期			1.000	0.963
CFb周期				1.000

检验值		t统计量	P值
ADF		1.365011	0.9989
临界值	1%	-3.466994
	5%	-2.877544
	10%	-2.575381

时段		桃花节	清明节	五一	端午节	中秋节	国庆节	G指标
2013年	客流规模（人次）	10377	5104	9068	19502	18947	38224	48.56
	客流规模比例（%）	10.25	5.04	8.96	19.27	18.72	37.76
	峰值指数	0.2428	0.1733	0.1907	0.4898	0.2522	1
2014年	客流规模（人次）	11476	6219	9964	19551	16943	38998	48.08
	客流规模比例（%）	11.13	6.03	9.66	18.95	16.43	37.81
	峰值指数	0.2352	0.1681	0.1681	0.4987	0.2878	1