地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 149-160.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201701012

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

人口城市化与土地城市化耦合发展关系及其机制研究——以江苏省为例

王亚华1,2(), 袁源1,2, 王映力1,2, 张小林1,2(), 乔伟峰1,2   

  1. 1. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
    2. 江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京 210023
  • 收稿日期:2016-08-15 修回日期:2016-12-09 出版日期:2017-01-20 发布日期:2017-01-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王亚华(1975- ),男,江苏东台人,博士,高级实验师,主要研究方向为城乡发展与土地规划。E-mail: 09123@njnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371172,41571164,41501187);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(164320H101)

Relationship and mechanism of coupling development between population and land urbanization: A case study of Jiangsu province

Yahua WANG1,2(), Yuan YUAN1,2, Yingli WANG1,2, Xiaolin ZHANG1,2(), Weifeng QIAO1,2   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
    2. Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information ResourceDevelopment and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Received:2016-08-15 Revised:2016-12-09 Online:2017-01-20 Published:2017-01-22

摘要:

改革开放以来,中国的城市化发展迅速,在推动国民经济和社会发展的同时,人口城市化与土地城市化之间也表现为不协调发展的格局,两者的相互作用机制愈加复杂。以江苏省为例,基于协整理论和自回归模型对人口城市化和土地城市化耦合发展的作用关系和程度进行评价。1991-2010年前后十年的分析结果表明,人口城市化对土地城市化的作用相对减弱,而土地城市化对人口城市化的作用明显增强。针对这一结果,分别从城市化的发展阶段、发展动力和调控政策,以及耦合发展过程中存在的集聚、转移和滞后效应等方面对两者相互作用关系的演化进行了解析,揭示了人口城市化和土地城市化耦合发展的作用机制。研究成果进一步充实了城市化复杂系统理论,也为协调城市化快速发展阶段的人地关系提供科学依据。

关键词: 人口城市化, 土地城市化, 协整理论, AR模型, 耦合, 江苏省

Abstract:

Urbanization has developed rapidly in China since the reform and opening-up, while for its promotion to the socioeconomic increase and development, there has been uncoordination between population and land urbanization, and the interaction mechanism of urbanization has also become more and more complicated. This paper, taking Jiangsu province as an example, analyzes the relationship and extent of coupling development between population and land urbanization by co-integration theory and autoregression model. The results indicate that: (1) Population urbanization took a positive promotion to land urbanization in the first decade (1991-2000), and the promotion reduced relatively in the second decade (2001-2010); On the contrary, the effect of land urbanization on population urbanization has enhanced obviously from the first decade to the second. (2) Furthermore, AR model evaluates the relationship of land and population urbanization quantitatively in different periods. With a 1% increase in population urbanization, there is a 1.5% increase in land urbanization in the first decade, and the figure falls to 1.03% in the second decade; On the other hand, with a 1% increase in land urbanization, the number is (0.4390+0.3410)% in the first decade, and up to (0.9097+0.4131)% in the second decade (0.9097 means the regression coefficient of the explanatory variable, and 0.4131 means the regression coefficient of standard deviation, according to the adjusted AR model). (3) Thirdly, this paper explains the reduced effect of population urbanization in the following three aspects: developing stage, driving force and regulatory policies; As well as the enhanced effect of land urbanization in the other three aspects: agglomeration, transfer and hysteresis. In conclusion, the results not only reveal the mechanism of coupling interaction between population and land urbanization, but also enrich the complex system theory of urbanization, and provide scientific basis for the human-environment interaction in the era of rapid urbanization.

Key words: population urbanization, land urbanization, co-integration theory, AR model, coupling, Jiangsu province