人口城市化与土地城市化耦合发展关系及其机制研究——以江苏省为例

doi:10.11821/dlyj201701012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

改革开放以来,中国的城市化发展迅速,在推动国民经济和社会发展的同时,人口城市化与土地城市化之间也表现为不协调发展的格局,两者的相互作用机制愈加复杂。以江苏省为例,基于协整理论和自回归模型对人口城市化和土地城市化耦合发展的作用关系和程度进行评价。1991-2010年前后十年的分析结果表明,人口城市化对土地城市化的作用相对减弱,而土地城市化对人口城市化的作用明显增强。针对这一结果,分别从城市化的发展阶段、发展动力和调控政策,以及耦合发展过程中存在的集聚、转移和滞后效应等方面对两者相互作用关系的演化进行了解析,揭示了人口城市化和土地城市化耦合发展的作用机制。研究成果进一步充实了城市化复杂系统理论,也为协调城市化快速发展阶段的人地关系提供科学依据。

关键词: 人口城市化, 土地城市化, 协整理论, AR模型, 耦合, 江苏省

Abstract:

Urbanization has developed rapidly in China since the reform and opening-up, while for its promotion to the socioeconomic increase and development, there has been uncoordination between population and land urbanization, and the interaction mechanism of urbanization has also become more and more complicated. This paper, taking Jiangsu province as an example, analyzes the relationship and extent of coupling development between population and land urbanization by co-integration theory and autoregression model. The results indicate that: (1) Population urbanization took a positive promotion to land urbanization in the first decade (1991-2000), and the promotion reduced relatively in the second decade (2001-2010); On the contrary, the effect of land urbanization on population urbanization has enhanced obviously from the first decade to the second. (2) Furthermore, AR model evaluates the relationship of land and population urbanization quantitatively in different periods. With a 1% increase in population urbanization, there is a 1.5% increase in land urbanization in the first decade, and the figure falls to 1.03% in the second decade; On the other hand, with a 1% increase in land urbanization, the number is (0.4390+0.3410)% in the first decade, and up to (0.9097+0.4131)% in the second decade (0.9097 means the regression coefficient of the explanatory variable, and 0.4131 means the regression coefficient of standard deviation, according to the adjusted AR model). (3) Thirdly, this paper explains the reduced effect of population urbanization in the following three aspects: developing stage, driving force and regulatory policies; As well as the enhanced effect of land urbanization in the other three aspects: agglomeration, transfer and hysteresis. In conclusion, the results not only reveal the mechanism of coupling interaction between population and land urbanization, but also enrich the complex system theory of urbanization, and provide scientific basis for the human-environment interaction in the era of rapid urbanization.

Key words: population urbanization, land urbanization, co-integration theory, AR model, coupling, Jiangsu province

王亚华, 袁源, 王映力, 张小林, 乔伟峰. 人口城市化与土地城市化耦合发展关系及其机制研究——以江苏省为例[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(1): 149-160.

Yahua WANG, Yuan YUAN, Yingli WANG, Xiaolin ZHANG, Weifeng QIAO. Relationship and mechanism of coupling development between population and land urbanization: A case study of Jiangsu province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(1): 149-160.

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阶段	人口城市化			土地城市化
阶段	阶段		增长率（%）	阶段	增长率（%）
初期	1992-1996年	3.40		1992-1995年	6.32
加速	1996-2001年	8.30		1995-2003年	7.14
稳定	2001-2009年	3.69		2003-2010年	6.16

数据名称	研究用途	来源说明
1991-2010年江苏省全省城镇人口、城镇建设用地面积	分析江苏省人口、土地城市化整体水平,并从经济、社会、政策等方面研究人口与土地城市化耦合发展作用机制	《中国城市统计年鉴》（1992-2011）、江苏省土地利用变更调查数据（1996-2008年）、第二次全国土地调查数据
1991-2010年江苏省13个地级市城区非农业人口、建成区面积	评价13个地级市城区建成区内的人口与土地城市化耦合作用关系与程度	《江苏省城乡建设统计年报》（1990-2010）、《江苏省建设事业统计资料暨成就汇编（1991-2000）》

期间	没有协整关系的原假设	单位根	统计量		5%显著水平临界值	伴随概率
期间	没有协整关系的原假设	单位根	Trace		5%显著水平临界值	λλ
1999-2000年	None	0.9420	25.3931	—	12.3209	0.0002
1999-2000年		0.9420	—	22.7830	11.2248	0.0003
2001-2010年		0.8508	19.1990	—	12.3209	0.0030
2001-2010年	—	0.8508		15.2188	11.2248	0.0095

检验项目		接受概率
检验项目		1991-2000年	2001-2010年
LM自相关检验	一阶	0.1166	0.9628
LM自相关检验	二阶	0.1951	0.9199
White异方差检验	不带交叉项	0.0645	0.2045
White异方差检验	带交叉项	0.0645	0.2045

检验项目		接受概率
检验项目		1991-2000年	2001-2010年
LM自相关检验	一阶	0.7682	0.0604
LM自相关检验	二阶	0.4520	0.1194
White异方差检验	不带交叉项	0.5274	0.0923
White异方差检验	带交叉项	0.5245	0.0799