高速铁路与汽车和航空的竞争格局分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201701014

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

通过分析高铁开通前后旅客在不同距离上的交通方式选择偏好,得出高铁在100~300 km、700~1000 km分别对汽车和航空市场造成冲击。基于函数模型和典型航线的数据指标,进一步探究高铁与汽车和航空的竞争格局。结果显示：① 高铁与汽车的市场临界点为152 km;② 高铁与航空的市场临界点是633 km;③ 高铁对航线影响的一般规律：首先,一次性通车的高铁对重合航线的影响大于分段开通的高铁;其次,大型交通枢纽城市之间航线最易受高铁影响,且影响存在“马太效应”;第三,商贸繁荣、旅游发达,或受地形影响的两地航线更能抵御高铁冲击;第四,高铁对纵向航线的冲击大于横向航线。最后,提出汽车和航空应采取的应对措施,以期为建成和完善全国现代综合交通运输体系提供参考。

关键词: 高速铁路, 汽车, 航空, 竞争格局

Abstract:

After comparing the preference of transportation at different distances before and after high-speed rail opened, the paper discovers high-speed rail produces great impacts on highways and aviation markets in the distance ranges of 100-300 km and 700-1000 km, respectively. Then the paper further explores the competition patterns between high-speed rail and highways and high-speed rail and aviation by applying the Logit model and analyzing data indicators of typical air routes. The results show that: (1) the market boundary distance between high-speed rail and highways is 152 km; (2) the market boundary distance between high-speed rail and aviation is 633 km; (3) the general laws of the influence of high-speed rail on aviation routes are as follows: first of all, the impact of simultaneously established high-speed rails on aviation routes is greater than that of sectionally established ones. Secondly, routes between cities with large transport hubs are most likely to be affected by high-speed rail with the "Matthew effect". Thirdly, routes between cities with flourishing trade, well-developed tourism or those influenced by topography are more likely to withstand the impacts brought by high-speed rail. Fourthly, longitudinal routes are affected more than lateral ones. At last, based on these conclusions, the paper puts forward measures that should be taken by highways and air transportation systems in order to provide reference for the construction and improvement of a national modern integrated transport system.

Key words: high-speed rail, highways, aviation, competition pattern

孙枫, 汪德根, 牛玉. 高速铁路与汽车和航空的竞争格局分析[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(1): 171-187.

Feng SUN, Degen WANG, Yu NIU. Competition patterns of high-speed rail versushighways and aviation[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(1): 171-187.

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班线(km)	影响	应对措施	资料来源
宁杭线 (236)	2013年7月宁杭高铁开通后,宁杭班线当月实载率由去年同期54.39%降至28.51%,日发送旅客由500人降至150人,日营业收入由5万元降至1.6万元	① 压缩班次;② 大幅度车票打折;③ 推出豪华、高品质服务班车	南京日报（2013-09-12）
京津线 (112)	2008年8月京津高铁开通,一年后京津班线每日出发班次由83班减至43班,月均发送旅客量由4.74万降至3.67万	① 下调路桥费,降低汽车票价;② 发挥点对点优势,提升客运服务水平	中国客车信息网(http://www.chinabus.info/html/2011-5/2011517100323.htm)
合福线 (675)	2015年6月合福高铁开通,与其重合的客运班线因无客源停运或减少班次,福州至南平班线客流量下降40%	① 加强中短途运输;② 推动旅游包车客运市场发展,提升服务质量	中华铁路网(http://www.chnrailway.com/html/20150724/1222607.shtml)
长娄线 (114)	2014年12月沪昆高铁湖南段正式运行,1个月后长沙汽车西站和南站去往怀化、凤凰、娄底和邵阳方向的客流量分别下降超过50%和80%	① 串联整合中短途客运站点,淘汰部分长途线路;② 提供“门对门、面对面”定制式便民服务,提高实载率	华声新闻(http://hunan.voc.com.cn/article/201503/2015 03260825532635.html)
深广线 (105)	2011年12月武广高铁深广段开通,1个月后春运期间广州发送东莞和深圳方向旅客同比分别下降19.13%和30.32%	① 降低票价;② 发展省内短途汽车客运,联动高速铁路和城际铁路	腾讯财经(http://finance.qq.com/a/22011021/000182.htm)

路线(km)	班次数量(次)			运行时间(h)			票价花费(元)
路线(km)	高铁		汽车		高铁	汽车	高铁(一等座)	高铁(二等座)	汽车
长沙—株洲(42)	27	128		0.25	0.7		39.5	24.5	20
广州—中山(70)	52	318		0.46	0.8		35	25	46
北京—天津(112)	133	32		0.5	1.5		65.5	54.5	35
上海—杭州(166)	125	27		0.9	1.8		117	73	68
成都—重庆(260)	47	11		1.7	3.2		246.5	154	123
北京—济南(366)	84	24		1.7	4.5		314.5	184.5	130
北京—郑州(622)	51	8		3.3	7.5		495	309	175
武汉—广州(832)	63	9		4.3	9.9		738.5	463.5	260
北京—上海(1088)	38	1		5.5	12.1		933	553	354

路线(km)	班次数量(次)		运行时间(h)		票价花费(元)
路线(km)	高铁	航空	高铁	航空	高铁(一等座)	高铁(二等座)	航空(经济舱)
北京—济南(366)	84	2	1.7	1.2	314.5	184.5	603
上海—合肥(408)	24	2	3	1.3	300.5	203.5	540
上海—福州(613)	10	44	4.5	1.8	629.5	377.5	580
北京—沈阳(626)	10	22	4.3	1.5	414	295	935
北京—郑州(622)	51	6	3.3	1.7	495	309	803
上海—济南(730)	56	5	4	1.7	673.5	398.5	790
武汉—广州(832)	63	21	4.3	2.1	738.5	463.5	790
北京—西安(907)	13	66	5.3	2.3	824.5	515.5	848
北京—上海(1088)	38	106	5.5	2.2	933	553	921
北京—长沙(1336)	16	41	7	2.7	1038	649	832
北京—福州(1558)	7	36	9.3	2.8	1210.5	719	1416
北京—广州(1887)	5	70	9.7	3.3	1380	862	1488