关键词: 收缩城市, 收缩地图, 人口衰减, 城镇化, 湖南省

Abstract:

Using the international "shrinking city" theoretical framework and China's Fifth and Sixth National Population Census data, this study conducted quantitative analyses regarding the shrinking population phenomenon at multiple geographical scales, from provincial to township, in Hunan Province in central China. From a statistically based forecast at the provincial level, a forthcoming slowing of total population growth and an ongoing decline of the labor pool (population aged 16-64 years) was discovered. Based on these predictions, Hunan's urbanization process in the next decade can be expected to be driven mainly by either further in-situ urbanization or the possible return of migrants, which could exacerbate population shrinkage in some marginal areas. By comparing historical demographic data with planning proposals collected at the prefectural level, the study reveals that targets are too high in the expectations for further population growth that are contained within planning documents. In reality, there is a clear mismatch between population distribution, migration patterns, and planned land quota allocation schemes for future development of cities in Hunan. At the county level, this study compared data on population change with the urbanization and gross domestic product growth rates from 2000 to 2010. From this, three main types of shrinkage were identified at the county scale: "population taking over", wherein population outflow and the economy develop slowly in urbanizing areas affected by central cities nearby that develop rapidly; "labor hollowing-out", wherein the population shrinks and the economy develops slowly in low-level urbanizing areas because of labor output; and "resource degrading". Meanwhile, census data at the township level paint a detailed picture of population shrinkage in Hunan Province. It suggests a statistically significant clustering of population growth in major prefecture- and county-level cities, which are surrounded by generally scattered shrinking regions. As shown on the "shrinking map" in this study, county-level cities were seated at the very edge of population gain or loss in the process of urbanization, which means they should function as main destinations of the internally urbanized population in the future (i.e., in-situ urbanization). Finally, this study suggests that the provincial government prepared for coming decades of population shrinkage, and started to find alternative urbanization pathways during the labor population decline. A "compact and shrinking" spatial planning framework is needed to secure sustainable urban growth, while also taking shrinking as an opportunity to develop compact, but higher quality, urban spaces.

Key words: shrinking city, shrinking maps, population decline, urbanization, Hunan