地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (2): 345-360.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201702012

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

1961-2013年黄土高原地区旱涝特征及极端和持续性分析

刘宇峰1(), 原志华2, 李文正1, 孔伟3, 张莉4, 吴林5   

  1. 1. 咸阳师范学院资源环境与历史文化学院,咸阳 712000
    2. 咸阳师范学院经济与管理学院,咸阳 712000
    3. 河北北方学院生态建设与产业发展研究中心,张家口 075000
    4. 陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院,西安 710062
    5. 中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心,石家庄 050021
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-24 修回日期:2016-12-17 出版日期:2017-02-20 发布日期:2017-02-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘宇峰(1981- ),男,讲师,博士,主要从事区域环境演变研究。E-mail:yfliu518@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41271159);陕西省社会科学基金项目(2014D20);陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(16JK1828);陕西省普通高等学校优势学科建设项目(历史地理学:0602)

Extreme and persistent analysis of drought-flood variationin the Loess Plateau during 1961-2013

Yufeng LIU1(), Zhihua YUAN2, Wenzheng LI1, Wei KONG3, Li ZHANG4, Lin WU5   

  1. 1. College of Resources Environment and History Culture, Xianyang Normal University, Xianyang 712000, Shaanxi, China
    2. College of Economics and Management, Xianyang Normal University, Xianyang 712000, Shaanxi, China
    3. Research Center of Ecological Construction and Industrial Development, Hebei North University, Zhangjiakou 075000, Hebei, China
    4. Center for Historical Environment and Socioeconomic Development in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710026, China
    5. The Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, CAS, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2016-09-24 Revised:2016-12-17 Online:2017-02-20 Published:2017-02-20

摘要:

基于1961-2013年黄土高原地区54个气象站点逐日降水和气温资料,采用降水和蒸发均一化旱涝指数,从多时间尺度对旱涝的演变特征及极端和持续性旱涝事件进行分析,结果表明:① 近53年,黄土高原地区具有明显的变旱趋势。② 年代变化上,20世纪60-80年代整体偏涝,90年代整体偏旱,21世纪初进入全面干旱期;季节变化上,春、夏、秋、冬四季均呈变旱趋势,且最显著的是春、夏、秋三季;年代际旱涝变化存在突变现象,突变时间发生在1992年。③ 空间变化上,在降水和温度双重因子的共同驱动下,年际旱涝指数表示的变旱区域涉及整个黄土高原,四季的旱涝变化具有一定区域差异,但以大范围的涝转旱为主;春季显著变旱决定着年际变旱的空间分布。④ 年代际极端洪涝总体为减少趋势,而极端干旱则为增加趋势;春、夏、秋三季极端旱涝发生频次较多且最多的是夏季,春、冬两季极端洪涝的发生频次多于极端干旱,而夏、秋两季极端干旱的发生频次多于极端洪涝;极端干旱与极端洪涝分别在1989年和1996年发生增多和减少突变;增温对极端干旱/极端洪涝的影响越来越突出,是促进和维持极端干旱、抑制和减少极端洪涝的重要因素。⑤ 持续性干旱事件有增多的趋势,但干旱强度却呈减弱趋势;持续性洪涝事件总体为减少趋势,但洪涝强度并没有明显的趋势;持续性干旱事件与洪涝事件多发区主要集中在黄土高原西北部和东南部。

关键词: 旱涝演变, 极端旱涝, 持续性旱涝, 黄土高原

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 54 meteorological stations in the Loess Plateau during 1961-2013, by using homogenized drought-flood index (DFI) of precipitation and latency evaporation,extreme and persistent characteristics of drought-flood are analyzed in multi-time scale. The results showed that: (1) The Loess Plateau saw a significant drought trend in recent 53 years. (2) On the interdecadal timescale, water-loggings were frequent in the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, while the 1990s was drouthy, then total drought period occurred since the early 21st century. On the inter-seasonal scales, drought trends were found in four seasons, among them spring, summer and autumn were remarkable; Moreover, the interdecadal variation presented a jump phenomenon in 1992. (3) In spatial variation, driven by both precipitation and temperature factors, the interannual DFI indicated that there was a consistent drought trend in the whole Loess Plateau. There existed a regional difference of seasonal drought and flood variation, but the drought trend covered the wide range. The spatial distribution of interannual drought was determined by drought areas in spring. (4) The interdecadal extreme flood frequency decreased, while extreme drought increased. The extreme drought-flood frequencies were higher in spring, summer and autumn, especially in summer. The frequency of extreme flood was higher than that of extreme drought in spring and winter, however, in summer and autumn, it occurred in the other way. An abrupt increase of extreme drought occurred in 1989 while the number of extreme flood events was reducing since 1996. The impacts of temperature increase on extreme drought and flood were becoming more and more prominent, which was the important factor promoting and sustaining extreme drought, as well as repressing and reducing extreme flood. (5) A growing trend of persistent drought events was going on, while the intensity was weakening. The persistent flood events showed a decreasing trend, while their intensity was not obvious. The northwest and southeast parts of the Loess Plateau were frequency-occurring areas of persistent drought and flood events.

Key words: variation of drought-flood, extreme drought-flood, persistent drought-flood, Loess Plateau