中国户籍人口城镇化率的核算方法与分布格局

doi:10.11821/dlyj201704002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“提高户籍人口城镇化率”被列为全面建成小康社会新的目标要求,户籍人口城镇化研究对中国新型城镇化发展和理解中国城镇化发展规律具有重要参考。通过厘清中国户籍人口城镇化率的“本地”“城镇”“户籍”等指标的统计口径,提出直接核算法、间接核算法两种中国户籍人口城镇化率测算方法。根据第六次人口普查数据,核算出中国县市尺度的户籍人口城镇化率,并与县市尺度的常住人口城镇化率与半城镇化率对比分析,得出主要结论：① 中国户籍人口城镇化率显著滞后于常住人口城镇化率。2010年,中国常住人口城镇化率达50.27%,但户籍人口城镇化率仅有39.34%。常住人口城镇化率的较高的单元往往与户籍人口城镇化率差距较大,形成较高的半城镇化率,外来流入人口对常住人口城镇化具有显著的拉动作用。② 中国户籍人口城镇化率的分布格局与非农就业机会呈现显著的正相关性,沿海、沿江、北部沿边等地区的户籍人口城镇化率显著高于内陆地区。流入人口主要在沿海城市群地区以及中西部省会或首府等大城市高度集聚,半城镇化率呈现显著的极化格局,使得户籍人口城镇化率的高值区相对常住人口城镇化率高值区显著收缩。③ 中国三分之二的县市的户籍人口城镇化率、常住人口城镇化率、半城镇化率均低于全国平均水平。沿海城市群地区及省会或首府等发达城市的半城镇化水平较高,应积极促进流动人口市民化提升户籍人口城镇化水平,而中西部的城镇化水平普遍偏低,应积极促进就地城镇化提升户籍人口城镇化水平。

关键词: 户籍人口, 城镇化率, 核算方法, 分布格局

Abstract:

Improving the urbanization rate of registered population is regarded as a new target of building a moderately prosperous society in China. The gap between urbanization rates of residential population and registered population is caused by the large floating population. The research on urbanization rate of registered population is helpful for understanding the new urbanization process in China. This paper clarified the statistic definitions of "local", "nonlocal" and "urban" for urbanization rate of registered population. Then two calculation methods, which were direct method and indirect method, were put forward to measure urbanization rate of registered population. Based on the 6th census data in China, the urbanization rate of registered population at county scale in 2010 was calculated. Besides, the comparison was conducted between urbanization rates of registered population, residential population and floating population. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Urbanization rate of registered population was obviously lower than that of residential population. In 2010, the urbanization rate of residential population reached 50.27%, while that of registered population was only 39.34%. The cities and counties with a large immigrant floating population usually have a relatively high urbanization rate of residential population. (2) The urbanization rate of registered population had a significant positive correlation with non-agricultural opportunities. Thus the urbanization rates of registered population in the coastal area, areas along the Yangtze River and in northern border area were relative higher than that in the inland area. The immigrant floating population mostly gathered in urban agglomeration area and provincial capital cities. As a result, in these areas and cities, urbanization rates of residential population were usually higher than that of registered population. (3) In China, two thirds of cities and counties had a relatively low urbanization level. The urbanization rates of all the three types in these cities and counties were below the national average level. The central and western regions of China should raise urbanization rate of registered population through encouraging local urbanization development. While those well-developed urban agglomerations and provincial capital cities should upgrade urbanization rate of registered population through promoting citizenization of immigrant floating population.

Key words: registered population, urbanization rate, calculation method, spatial pattern

戚伟, 刘盛和, 金浩然. 中国户籍人口城镇化率的核算方法与分布格局[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 616-632.

Wei QI, Shenghe LIU, Haoran JIN. Calculation method and spatial pattern of urbanization rate of registered population in China[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(4): 616-632.

图/表 13

图1

表1

2010年全国主要城市的城镇化率指标（按城区人口规模等级排序）"

县市名	城市规模等级	户籍人口城镇化率(%)	户籍人口城镇化率排序	常住人口城镇化率(%)	常住人口城镇化率排序	半城镇化率(%)	半城镇化率排序
上海市	超大城市	53.28	207	90.60	62	37.32	25
北京市	超大城市	51.03	244	87.36	86	36.32	30
深圳市	超大城市	20.71	1940	100.00	1	79.29	1
广州市	特大城市	49.13	273	87.63	80	38.50	21
天津市	特大城市	59.06	148	86.22	99	27.16	82
重庆市	特大城市	51.22	239	68.68	224	17.46	190
武汉市	特大城市	54.17	193	77.07	162	22.90	116
东莞市	特大城市	18.32	2039	88.46	72	70.13	2
佛山市	特大城市	44.83	381	94.09	41	49.26	11
成都市	特大城市	50.67	249	85.18	109	34.51	37
沈阳市	特大城市	74.69	44	91.41	56	16.71	204
南京市	特大城市	58.61	154	81.33	128	22.72	117
西安市	I型大城市	57.13	171	80.08	145	22.95	113
哈尔滨市	I型大城市	66.21	87	83.91	114	17.70	185
杭州市	I型大城市	48.30	290	82.70	118	34.40	38
大连市	I型大城市	65.71	90	95.47	27	29.75	63
郑州市	I型大城市	51.58	235	86.44	97	34.86	35
青岛市	I型大城市	63.62	109	94.65	33	31.03	56
济南市	I型大城市	57.88	163	81.36	126	23.47	110
长春市	I型大城市	63.91	107	81.35	127	17.45	191
昆明市	I型大城市	58.39	157	91.82	55	33.43	42
合肥市	I型大城市	58.98	150	93.61	45	34.63	36
太原市	I型大城市	68.36	75	92.05	54	23.69	108
厦门市	Ⅱ型大城市	34.84	934	88.33	74	53.49	9
苏州市	Ⅱ型大城市	45.08	375	81.09	135	36.02	31
长沙市	Ⅱ型大城市	63.23	114	95.83	26	32.60	49
乌鲁木齐市	Ⅱ型大城市	56.50	175	94.19	38	37.69	23
石家庄市	Ⅱ型大城市	75.92	35	97.72	17	21.81	126
福州市	Ⅱ型大城市	59.29	145	96.67	21	37.38	24
无锡市	Ⅱ型大城市	48.59	284	77.82	156	29.23	68
温州市	Ⅱ型大城市	34.52	953	88.40	73	53.88	8
贵阳市	Ⅱ型大城市	53.14	210	83.04	115	29.90	62
南宁市	Ⅱ型大城市	43.88	409	77.48	157	33.60	40
兰州市	Ⅱ型大城市	67.88	79	92.78	50	24.90	95
汕头市	Ⅱ型大城市	59.36	144	68.38	227	9.03	415
宁波市	Ⅱ型大城市	41.23	543	73.98	183	32.75	47
南昌市	Ⅱ型大城市	69.60	66	94.31	35	24.71	97
包头市	Ⅱ型大城市	59.37	143	90.63	61	31.26	55
中山市	Ⅱ型大城市	38.24	710	87.82	77	49.57	10

表1

图2

表2

表3

图3

表4

图4

图5

图6

表5

图7

表6

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[1]	孙红玲, 唐未兵, 沈裕谋. 论人的城镇化与人均公共服务均等化. 中国工业经济, 2014, (5): 18-30.

城镇化率(%)	按户籍人口城镇化率划分		按常住人口城镇化率划分		按半城镇化率划分
城镇化率(%)	县市数量 (个)	本地户籍城镇人口(万人)	县市数量(个)	城镇总人口 (万人)	县市数量 (个)	外地户籍城镇人口(万人)
0~10	71(3.09%)	59(0.11%)	49(2.13%)	51(0.07%)	1923(83.72%)	2011(13.81%)
10~30	923(40.18%)	9213(17.57%)	776(33.78%)	7490(11.18%)	313(13.63%)	5601(38.45%)
30~50	1043(45.41%)	23558(44.93%)	1007(43.84%)	18933(28.26%)	52(2.26%)	5156(35.40%)
50~70	196(8.53%)	15897(30.32%)	250(10.89%)	10847(16.19%)	7(0.30%)	399(2.74%)
70~100	64(2.79%)	3708(7.07%)	215(9.36%)	29679(44.30%)	2(0.09%)	1398(9.60%)

省级行政区	所属区域	户籍人口城镇化率(%)	户籍人口城镇化率排序	常住人口城镇化率(%)	常住人口城镇化率排序	半城镇化率(%)	半城镇化率排序
北京	东部	50.63	4	85.96	2	35.33	2
天津	东部	55.41	1	79.44	3	24.02	4
河北	东部	39.21	14	43.94	20	4.73	29
上海	东部	52.70	3	89.30	1	36.60	1
江苏	东部	47.39	7	60.22	7	12.83	8
浙江	东部	39.45	13	61.64	6	22.19	5
福建	东部	38.71	16	57.09	8	18.38	6
山东	东部	42.66	9	49.71	13	7.05	19
广东	东部	38.17	17	66.17	4	28.00	3
海南	东部	37.16	21	49.69	15	12.53	9
山西	中部	41.25	11	48.05	16	6.80	20
安徽	中部	37.34	20	42.99	23	5.64	27
江西	中部	39.19	15	43.75	21	4.57	30
河南	中部	34.26	23	38.52	27	4.26	31
湖北	中部	42.14	10	49.70	14	7.55	18
湖南	中部	37.54	19	43.31	22	5.77	26
辽宁	东北	53.12	2	62.15	5	9.03	14
吉林	东北	47.72	6	53.36	11	5.64	28
黑龙江	东北	49.38	5	55.66	9	6.28	24
内蒙古	西部	41.05	12	55.53	10	14.48	7
广西	西部	32.29	26	40.02	26	7.72	16
重庆	西部	42.95	8	53.03	12	10.07	13
四川	西部	32.27	27	40.22	25	7.95	15
贵州	西部	27.89	30	33.78	30	5.89	25
云南	西部	27.93	29	34.72	29	6.78	21
西藏	西部	16.16	31	22.67	31	6.51	22
陕西	西部	38.03	18	45.70	18	7.67	17
甘肃	西部	29.50	28	35.94	28	6.44	23
青海	西部	33.36	24	44.72	19	11.36	10
宁夏	西部	36.61	22	47.96	17	11.35	11
新疆	西部	32.32	25	42.79	24	10.47	12

城镇化率(%)	按户籍人口城镇化率划分		按常住人口城镇化率划分		按半城镇化率划分
城镇化率(%)	省级单元数量(个)	本地户籍城镇人口(万人)	省级单元数量(个)	城镇总人口(万人)	省级单元数量(个)	外地户籍城镇人口(万人)
0~10	0(0%)	0(0%)	0(0%)	0(0%)	18(58.06%)	5782(39.69%)
10~30	4(12.90%)	3056(5.82%)	1(3.23%)	68(0.10%)	11(35.48%)	7249(49.77%)
30~50	23(74.20%)	44132(84.17%)	18(58.06%)	35844(53.50%)	2(6.46%)	1535(10.54%)
50~70	4(12.90%)	5247(10.01%)	9(29.03%)	26319(39.28%)	0(0%)	0(0%)
70~100	0(0%)	0(0%)	3(9.68%)	4769(7.12%)	0(0%)	0(0%)

被解释变量	逐步回归次数	解释变量
被解释变量	逐步回归次数	地形起伏度	二三产业人口比例	万人拥有本科以上人数	人均GDP	平均工资
户籍人口城镇化率	1	排除	0.746^***	排除	排除	排除
	2	-0.209^***	0.678^***	排除	排除	排除
	3	-0.238^***	0.552^***	0.186^***	排除	排除
	4	-0.214^***	0.573^***	0.190^***	排除	-0.076^***
常住人口城镇化率	1	排除	0.851^***	排除	排除	排除
	2	排除	0.672^***	0.288^***	排除	排除
	3	-0.127^***	0.613^***	0.317^***	排除	排除
	4	-0.121^***	0.579^***	0.302^***	0.074^***	排除
	5	-0.108^***	0.587^***	0.303^***	0.083^***	-0.040^***
半城镇化率	1	排除	排除	0.702^***	排除	排除
	2	排除	0.412^***	0.446^***	排除	排除
	3	排除	0.320^***	0.412^***	0.190^***	排除
	4	0.137^***	0.377^***	0.378^***	0.205^***	排除
	5	0.124^***	0.369^***	0.377^***	0.196^***	0.041^***

县市类型	县市数量(个)	地域面积(万km²)	城镇总人口(万人)	本地户籍城镇人口(万人)	外地户籍城镇人口(万人)
HHH型	240(10.45%)	114(12.09%)	28824(43.02%)	19751(37.67%)	9073(62.29%)
HLH型	59(2.57%)	20(2.15%)	5098(7.61%)	2083(3.97%)	3014(20.68%)
LLH型	43(1.87%)	50(5.30%)	840(1.25%)	571(1.09%)	269(1.85%)
HHL型	161(7.01%)	75(7.90%)	6486(9.68%)	5833(11.12%)	654(4.49%)
LHL型	252(10.97%)	61(6.44%)	6567(9.80%)	6203(11.83%)	364(2.50%)
LLL型	1542(67.13%)	625(66.12%)	19186(28.64%)	17993(34.32%)	1193(8.19%)