主航道中断背景下集装箱海运网络的脆弱性及其对中国的影响

doi:10.11821/dlyj201704010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究马六甲海峡、苏伊士运河及巴拿马运河等主航道受到攻击时对全球集装箱海运网络的影响,在统计全球集装箱班轮航线及挂靠港的基础上,分别计算三大主航道中断背景下海运网络的网络平均度、孤立节点比例、聚类系数、网络平均距离和网络效率的变化;结合地理特征分析了上述情况对中国集装箱海运产生的影响。研究表明：全球集装箱海运网络对三大主航道的畅通性十分敏感,影响最大的是马六甲海峡,其次是苏伊士运河;当三大主航道遭受攻击时,中国港口与国际其他港口间的网络距离产生了不同程度的增加,网络效率明显下降。为维系中国港口与全球其他港口间运输的畅通,讨论了替代航线,并从保障海运安全的角度提出了相应的对策。

关键词: 马六甲海峡, 苏伊士运河, 巴拿马运河, 集装箱, 网络

Abstract:

The Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal are the main channels in the global container shipping network. As the dependence of the world economy on container shipping constantly increases and terrorism wantonly spread, research of the impact of main channel interruption on the global container shipping network and China container shipping is of great significance in analyzing the vulnerability of the global container shipping network, establishing and improving the security mechanism of the global economy operation and guaranteeing unobstructed container shipping between China and other regions. To study the impact, we performed a statistical analysis of all ports and shipping lines that are operated by the top 100 container shipping companies in 2015, which occupy 93% of the global container shipping capacity. The results indicate that there are 2827 shipping lines and 734 ports in the global container shipping network. Based on the statistics, we calculated the change rates of network average degree, isolated-node proportion, clustering coefficient, network average shortest-path length and network efficiency of the network when the main channels are attacked respectively. The average of the change rates of the network's metrics are 5.61%, 3.50% and 1.89% when the Malacca Strait, the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal are attacked respectively. So the network is sensitive to the three main channels, and the Malacca Strait is the most influential channel, followed by the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal. At the same time, we analyzed the impact on China container shipping by combining the characteristics of global marine geography. The node degrees of 12, 6 and 6 ports in China decrease when the main channels are attacked respectively, and the network shortest-path lengths between the affected ports in China and other ports in the world increase in varying degrees, so the transport efficiency decreases obviously. Finally, to guarantee unobstructed container shipping between China and other regions, we present the alternative shipping lines by detour transportation or sea-land multimodal transportation according to different main channels, and make corresponding policies from the maritime security perspective.

Key words: Malacca Strait, Suez Canal, Panama Canal, container, network

吴迪, 王诺, 吴暖, 林婉妮. 主航道中断背景下集装箱海运网络的脆弱性及其对中国的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 719-730.

Di WU, Nuo WANG, Nuan WU, Wanni LIN. The impact of main channel interruption on vulnerability of container shipping network and China container shipping[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(4): 719-730.

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编号	航道	编号	航道	编号	航道
1	马六甲海峡	9	龙目海峡	17	白令海峡
2	苏伊士运河	10	望加锡海峡	18	土耳其海峡
3	巴拿马运河	11	民都洛海峡	19	德雷克海峡
4	英吉利海峡	12	台湾海峡	20	麦哲伦海峡
5	直布罗陀海峡	13	大隅海峡	21	多佛尔海峡
6	曼德海峡	14	朝鲜海峡	22	莫桑比克海峡
7	霍尔木兹海峡	15	宗谷海峡	23	基尔运河
8	巽它海峡	16	佛罗里达海峡

攻击对象	无	马六甲海峡	苏伊士运河	巴拿马运河
平均节点度	9.19	8.28	8.58	8.92
变化率(%)	-	-9.90	-6.67	-2.87

攻击对象	无	马六甲海峡	苏伊士运河	巴拿马运河
孤立节点数	0	16	7	7
孤立节点比例(%)	-	2.18	0.95	0.95

受攻击航道	港口	原节点度
马六甲海峡	伊利切夫斯特港(乌克兰)	7
	阿巴斯港(伊朗)	5
	塔兰托港(意大利)	4
	威廉港(德国)	4
	山打根港(马来西亚)	4
	纳闽岛港(马来西亚)	4
	斗湖港(马来西亚)	3
	盖梅港(越南)	3
	佩尼谢港(葡萄牙)	2
	埃因苏赫纳港(埃及)	2
	苏科纳港(埃及)	2
	印诺尔港(印度)	2
	蒙格拉港(孟加拉)	2
	米里港(马来西亚)	2
	西港港(马来西亚)	2
	诗巫港(马来西亚)	2
苏伊士运河	塔兰托港(意大利)	4
	威廉港(德国)	4
	延布港(沙特阿拉伯)	3
	盖梅港(越南)	3
	勒波尔港(法国)	2
	贾瓦哈拉尔港(印度)	2
	贝岛港(马达加斯加)	1
巴拿马运河	斯拉维亚卡港(俄罗斯)	4
	科鲁尼亚港(西班牙)	2
	尤日内港(乌克兰)	2
	罗摩港(斯里兰卡)	2
	布拉夫港(新西兰)	2
	科罗内尔港(智利)	2
	圣安德烈斯港(哥伦比亚)	2

参数	未攻击前	马六甲海峡	苏伊士运河	巴拿马运河
聚类系数	0.4973	0.4788	0.4892	0.4934
变化率(%)	-	-3.72	-1.63	-0.78