地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 731-742.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201704011

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国耕地压力的空间分异及社会经济因素影响——基于342个地级行政区的面板数据

张慧1,2(), 王洋3()   

  1. 1. 湖南大学经济与贸易学院,长沙 410006
    2. 广东药科大学医药经济学院,广州 510006
    3. 广州地理研究所,广州 510070
  • 收稿日期:2016-09-11 修回日期:2017-01-09 出版日期:2017-04-20 发布日期:2017-05-04
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:张慧(1978- ),女,湖南岳阳人,博士研究生,副教授,研究方向为区域经济与粮食安全。E-mail:huizi_zhang@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD052);教育部规划基金项目(13YJA790118);广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划项目(GD16CYJ10)

Spatial differentiation of cropland pressure and its socio-economic factors in China based on panel data of 342 prefectural-level units

Hui ZHANG1,2(), Yang WANG3()   

  1. 1. School of Economic & Trade, Hunan University, Changsha 410006, China
    2. School of Medical Economics, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou 510006, China
    3. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China
  • Received:2016-09-11 Revised:2017-01-09 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-05-04

摘要:

以342个地级行政区为基本单元,利用耕地压力指数、GDI指数、空间自相关、平均增长指数等方法分析2001-2013年中国耕地压力的时空分异格局与过程;在粮食生产因素基础上重点分析社会经济因素对耕地压力变动的影响。结果表明:① 2001年以来中国耕地压力状况逐渐减轻,但空间分异程度扩大、空间集聚趋势增强;② 中国耕地压力格局总体稳定、局部变化,南北分化趋势显著;③ 耕地质量是决定中国耕地压力的基础性因素,农民收入、产业结构和经济水平等社会经济因素对耕地压力变动有更为显著的影响,作用超过了粮食生产投入因素。

关键词: 耕地压力指数, 粮食安全, 空间分异, 社会经济因素, 中国

Abstract:

Cultivated land is the foundation for sustainable development in China. The growth in both population and trade in China has triggered the increasing demand for food in recent years. However, aggressive urbanization continues to appropriate cultivated land. As a result, the conflict between food supply and demand has become prominent, and academics have become increasingly concerned with several challenges regarding cropland pressure. Existing research shows that it is particularly necessary to examine cropland pressure patterns in China at a smaller scale and analyze impact factors from more perspectives. Therefore, this article uses the pressure index of cultivated land to evaluate cropland pressure levels with 342 prefectural-level units. On this basis, we have analyzed the spatial-temporal differentiation and evolution of China's cropland pressure pattern from 2001 to 2013 using the GDI index, spatial autocorrelation, and the average growth index. Finally, based on the dual perspectives of grain production and social economy, we have established the impact factor evaluation system of 'quality of cultivated land + agent of agricultural production input + economic environment + farmers' income' and explored the main impact factors that cause change in China's food security, particularly socioeconomic factors. We found the following results. First, China's cropland pressure has been decreasing since 2001, but greater changes have taken place in the degree of spatial differentiation and the trend of accumulative spatial agglomeration. Specifically, the spatial agglomeration of high cropland pressure areas have become increasingly obvious. Second, China's cropland pressure pattern is generally stable with minor changes, and there is an obvious north-south differentiation trend; cropland pressure in areas along the southwest and southeast coasts increases quickly. Third, socio-economic factors, including farmers' income, economic level, and industrial structure, have a more obvious impact on changes in cropland pressure. The effect of these factors exceeds that of the grain production input factor. Furthermore, the quality of cultivated land is the fundamental factor that determines cropland pressure.

Key words: pressure index of cultivated land, food security, spatial differentiation, socio-economic factor, China