地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (5): 913-925.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201705009

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

行政区划调整对大城市房价的影响研究

王丰龙1,2(), 张传勇1,2()   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海 200062
    2. 华东师范大学城市发展研究院,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-26 修回日期:2017-03-09 出版日期:2017-05-20 发布日期:2017-05-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王丰龙(1988- ),男,内蒙古赤峰人,博士,讲师,研究方向为行为地理学、政治地理学和计量地理学。E-mail:flwang@iud.ecnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41601144,41371147,41271165,41130747);十三五国家重点研发计划研究专项(2016YFC0502701)

Impacts of administrative division adjustment on housing price in urban China

Fenglong WANG1,2(), Chuanyong ZHANG1,2()   

  1. 1. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2. Institute of Urban Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2016-11-26 Revised:2017-03-09 Online:2017-05-20 Published:2017-05-20

摘要:

随着城市化进程的推进,不少城市进行了“撤县设区”和“城区合并”等行政区划调整。已有研究主要探讨行政区划调整的类型、推动力及其对城市化、经济发展和城镇体系的影响,鲜有研究分析行政区划调整对房价变化的影响。基于1999-2013年280多个地级市和2009-2016年上海市19个区的房价面板数据,采用合成控制法检验撤县设区和城区合并对房价的影响。研究发现:对于特大城市,撤县设区对城市房价有正向影响;对于一般的地级市,撤县设区短期内会减缓城市房价的增速;此外,城区合并对被合并城区的房价往往具有推动作用。本文的研究方法可为其他事件影响的评估研究提供参考。研究结论可为地方政府的房价政策制定提供参考。

关键词: 行政区划调整, 撤县设区, 城区合并, 商品房价格, 合成控制法

Abstract:

With the rapid urbanization, many prefectural cities acquire more land for urban development through annexing the neighboring counties or adjusting the urban boundary in China. There are a number of studies examining the types, driving forces and impacts of administrative division adjustment. However, the existing studies have mainly focused on the impacts of administrative division adjustment on urbanization, economic growth and urban system, while the impacts of administrative division adjustment on housing prices have been scarcely investigated. Moreover, since previous studies on the impacts of administrative division adjustment mainly adopt methods of direct comparison or difference in difference (DID), the findings may be biased by the mixture of temporal trends with effects of adjustment or the selection of irrelevant cases for comparison. This paper tries to narrow this gap by examining the impacts of administrative division adjustment on housing prices in metropolises and megapolises using the Synthetic Control Method. The data are mainly derived from "China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy" and "China City Statistical Yearbook" from 1999 to 2013 and Shanghai housing market data from 2009 to 2016. It is found that the annexation of counties accelerates the rise of housing prices in provincial capitals and megapolises yet tend to slow down the rise of housing prices in other cities at prefecture level; the merge of urban districts is likely to increase the housing price in the merged district. The findings suggest that the local governments, especially those in medium- to large-sized cities, should adopt a moderate way of urban sprawl rather than a radical expansion through administrative adjustment and real estate development. The policy makers in megapolises should also prevent property speculation after administrative division adjustment.

Key words: administrative division adjustment, annexation of counties, merge of urban districts, housing price, synthetic control method