南京市居民购物行为的影响因素和空间效应——基于四种商品的对比研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj201705012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

信息技术的发展和使用不断改变着居民的购物方式和行为,并对城市交通和城市商业空间布局等产生了一系列影响。采用2015年南京市居民购物行为问卷调查数据,通过联合有序probit模型,探讨南京市居民购物行为影响因素和空间效应,并对四种商品进行对比研究。研究表明：① 家庭生命周期、城市建成环境、居民购物态度、机动车保有状况和社会经济人口因素均对居民购物行为有显著影响,且存在产品类型差异;② 不同类型人群对城市交通出行和商业布局的影响不同,且特征人群分布存在空间分异;③ 居民对不同产品类型购物的空间偏好存在差异,且这种偏好受居民主观决策和客观环境共同影响。基于以上发现,对城市交通和商业布局提出相关建议。

关键词: 居民购物行为, 网络购物, 影响因素, 空间效应, 南京

Abstract:

The development of information and communication technology has changed individuals' shopping mode and behavior, which in turn affects urban travel and the spatial distribution of retail businesses. This paper explored the influencing factors of shopping behavior and discussed spatial effects of the shopping behavior by using a comparative study of four types of goods, i.e., clothing, book, daily goods and electronic device. Joint ordered probit models have been applied based on a survey conducted in Nanjing city from April to June in 2015. The survey presents the shopping behavior of 963 residents from 42 residential development and eight metropolitan districts of Nanjing city.The result reveals that: (1) the built environment, shopping attitudes, and demographic characteristics have significant impacts on individual's shopping behavior. At different stages of family life cycle, individuals tend to increase or decrease the frequency of purchasing different types of goods. All these impacts vary in the four types of goods; (2) both substitution effect and complementarity effect of online shopping have been identified. However, the complementarity effect is applied on all the four types of goods and the substitution effect only applied on clothing. Individuals have been categorized into some specific sub-populations to identify and predict the two effects. There is only one sub-population whose online shopping behavior has substitution effect and many others have complementarity effect. The spatial distribution of these specific sub-populations is heterogeneous so that it has great impacts on urban transportation and commercial planning. (3) In terms of different types of goods, individuals have different spatial preferences, which are subject to their desire and the built environment. They prefer purchasing non-daily goods at shopping mall miles away from home and purchasing daily goods at small stores nearby. These preferences would affect the effect of urban commercial zoning. For example, when the density of shopping malls increases, the individuals' travel distance of clothing shopping will decrease but the frequency will increase. The overall travel magnitude is determined by the combined effect of the two models. Based on the results, we proposed some suggestions on urban transportation and commercial land use planning.

Key words: shopping behavior, e-shopping, influencing factors, spatial effects, Nanjing

杜晓娟, 甄峰, CAO Jason. 南京市居民购物行为的影响因素和空间效应——基于四种商品的对比研究[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(5): 957-971.

Xiaojuan DU, Feng ZHEN, Jason CAO. Influential factors and spatial effects of individuals' shopping behavior in Nanjing: A comparative study on four types of goods[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(5): 957-971.

图/表 11

图1

表1

表2

图2

表3

表4

联合有序probit回归结果（1）"

	衣服		书籍
	网络	实体	网络	实体
性别（以男性为参照）	0.507^***（5.87）	0.39^***（4.82）	0.162^**（-2.01）
收入	0.05^**（2.06）	0.057^**（2.39）	0.055^**（2.25）
教育水平		-0.076^*（-1.84）	0.246^***（5.58）
家庭生命周期（以单身为参照）
新婚	0.12（1.09）	-0.172^*（-1.67）	-0.202^*（-1.77）	-0.395^***（-3.18）
满巢I	0.219^*（1.74）	-0.213^*（-1.81）	0.042（0.34）	-0.251^*（-1.86）
满巢Ⅱ	0.038（0.28）	-0.225^*（-1.78）	0.400^***（3.03）	0.063（0.45）
满巢Ⅲ	-0.119（-0.67）	-0.025（-0.15）	0.193（1.03）	0.144（0.77）
空巢	-0.404^*（-2.34）	0.088（0.58）	0.299^*（1.76）	0.286^*（1.72）
居住地类型（以城区为参照）	0.201^**（2.44）
通勤类型（以工作和居住在同一行政区为参照）	0.166^**（2.02）
购物出行时耗	-0.108^***（-3.88）	-0.053^**（-2.03）		-0.059^**（-2.27）
上网时长	0.098^**（2.44）
求新心理	0.081^*（1.95）	0.086^**（2.19）	0.078^**（1.96）
成本节约意识		-0.072^*（-1.92）
冲动消费心理	0.123^***（2.88）	0.077^*（1.95）	-0.075^*（-1.86）
时间节约意识	0.089^**（2.13）	0.157^***（3.98）
机动车数量	0.117^***（2.65）	0.105^**（2.59）	0.102^**（2.33）	0.127^***（2.79）
驾照	0.186^**（2.07）	0.265^***（3.14）
$ε 网络$ 和 $ε 实体$ 相关性	0.242^***（5.42）		0.511^***（9.34）
似然比（LR）检验	LR chi2(31)=208.24^***		LR chi2(18) =113.58^***
对数似然值	-2217.742		-1549.9871
样本量	801		814

表4

表5

联合有序probit回归结果（2）"

	日用百货		电子类产品
	网络	实体	网络	实体
性别（以男性为参照）	0.198^**（2.52）	0.273^***（3.6）	-0.353^***（-3.51）	-0.280^***（-2.7）
收入	0.042^*（1.78）	0.068^***（3.17）
教育水平	0.120^***（2.76）
家庭生命周期（以单身为参照）
新婚	0.116（1.13）	0.222^**（2.31）	0.036（0.28）	0.210^*（1.65）
满巢I	0.350^***（2.94）	0.260^**（2.34）	0.118（0.8）	-0.278^*（-1.68）
满巢Ⅱ	0.129（1.01）	0.250^**（2.08）	-0.027（-0.16）	-0.044（-0.26）
满巢Ⅲ	-0.163（-0.94）	0.088（0.56）	-0.109（-0.48）	-0.088（-0.39）
空巢	-0.223（-1.34）	0.037（0.26）	-0.06（-0.28）	0.164（0.83）
居住地类型（以城区为参照）	0.212^***（2.75）
通勤类型（以工作和居住在同一行政区为参照）	0.149^*（1.92）		0.259^***（2.83）
购物出行时耗		-0.163^***（-6.1）
求新心理	0.215^***（5.29）	0.129^***（3.51）	0.15^***（3.09）	0.203^***（4.09）
购物享受心理		0.083^**（2.21）		-0.115^**（-2.38）
成本节约意识				-0.129^***（-2.98）
冲动消费心理	0.092^**（2.32）
时间节约意识				0.109^**（2.26）
驾照			0.229^**（2.1）	0.252^**（2.33）
$ε 网络$ 和 $ε 实体$ 相关性	0.256^***（5.86）		0.718^***（9.55）
似然比（LR）检验	LR chi2(22)=185.74^***		LR chi2(20)=95.47^***
对数似然值	-2511.8594		-923.34061
样本量	905		913

表5

表6

图3

图4

图5

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	样本属性	样本量	均值或比例
年龄	年龄	923	31.48（均值）
性别	男	404	42.1%
性别	女	555	57.9%
学历	小学及以下	5	0.5%
	初中	43	4.5%
	高中/中专	104	10.8%
	大专	226	23.5%
	本科	448	46.6%
	研究生及以上	135	14.1%
家庭平均月收入(元)	<1000	4	0.4%
	1000~1999	27	2.8%
	2000~2999	75	7.9%
	3000~4999	204	21.5%
	5000~6999	206	21.8%
	7000~9999	168	17.7%
	10000~14999	135	14.2%
	15000~19999	68	7.2%
	>200000	62	6.5%
居住地	市区	534	55.5%
居住地	郊区	429	44.5%

购物频率	衣服		书籍		日用百货		电子产品
购物频率	网络	实体	网络	实体	网络	实体	网络	实体
很少	25.92%	29.04%	55.39%	70.66%	30.58%	16.21%	79.68%	83.12%
二个月一次	19.94%	25.37%	21.56%	14.30%	13.97%	12.92%	12.06%	11.01%
一个月一次	19.41%	24.00%	13.42%	8.73%	26.03%	21.29%	8.26%	5.87%
一个月两次	14.06%	12.37%	9.62%	6.31%	13.97%	21.29%
一个月三次及以上	20.67%	9.23%			15.45%	28.29%
样本量	953	954	946	951	945	944	945	954

家庭生命周期	定义	比例(%)
单身	成年之后到结婚	29.78
新婚	从结婚到孩子出生	26.41
满巢I	孩子学龄前阶段(0~5岁)	17.07
满巢II	孩子小学阶段(6~11岁)	13.04
满巢III	孩子中学阶段(包括初中和高中)(12~17岁)	5.98
空巢	孩子上大学或者参加工作(18岁及以上)	7.72

关系	特征描述		对出行的影响
关系	人群特征	商品类型	对出行的影响
网络购物增加,实体购物减少（替代）	满巢Ⅰ	衣服	减少出行
网络购物和实体购物均增加（补充）	女性、高收入者、具有求新心理、冲动消费心理、时间节约意识、机动车保有数量多、拥有驾照	衣服	增加出行
	空巢、拥有驾照	书籍
	女性、高收入者、满巢I、具有求新心理	日用百货
	男性、具有求新心理、拥有驾照	电子类产品
网络购物和实体购物均减少	新婚	书籍	减少出行
网络购物和实体购物均减少	购物出行时耗增加	衣服	减少出行