长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应

doi:10.11821/dlyj201706004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取长三角地区各城市2001-2012年专利申请受理量作为表征各城市创新水平指标,采用变异系数、基尼系数、赫芬达尔指数和空间自相关指标和方法,考察长三角地区创新空间格局演变特征,并使用空间回归分析方法,探讨长三角地区创新空间差异的影响因素。研究表明：① 长三角地区整体创新空间差异和创新集中度呈下降趋势,近年来已趋向稳定。② 长三角地区创新空间格局仍处在动态变化之中,但已基本形成以上海、南京为端点的创新高值集聚带。长三角地区创新空间已表现出正的空间相关性,但呈现出波动变化特征,空间相关性并不显著,仍存在一定程度的空间异质性。③ 城市创新已表现出一定程度的空间溢出效应。创新综合投入、创新环境和创新规模是长三角地区创新空间差异的主要影响因素。

关键词: 创新, 空间自相关, 空间溢出, 影响因素, 长三角地区

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate and evaluate the spatial distribution of urban innovation in the Yangtze River Delta. In this study, the data of innovation ability of 16 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2001 to 2012 were selected. Based on the coefficient of variation, Gini coefficient, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression analysis method, combined with GIS spatial analysis, SPSS data analysis tools and Geoda software, this paper examines the spatiotemporal change and influencing factors of innovation capability in the Yangtze River Delta cities. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The overall spatial differentiation and innovation concentrations of the region have been stable in recent years. (2) The spatial pattern of innovation is still in dynamic change, but a high innovation output zone which consist of Shanghai, Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou and Nanjing has formed. The innovation space in the delta has shown fluctuating characteristics, with a minor positive spatial correlation among cities. This indicates that a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity exists in the Yangtze River Delta region. (3) Urban innovation has shown a certain degree of spatial spillover effect. The level of investment, environment and scale of the innovation are the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of innovation capacity of cities in the region. The research results provide some guidance for the improvement of city innovation capacity and regional sustainable development of the Yangtze River Delta.

Key words: innovation, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spillover, influencing factors, Yangtze River Delta

王承云, 孙飞翔. 长三角城市创新空间的集聚与溢出效应[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(6): 1042-1052.

Chengyun WANG, Feixiang SUN. Spatial agglomeration and spillover effects of urban innovation in Yangtze River Delta[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(6): 1042-1052.

图/表 9

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

OLS模型与空间回归模型估计结果比较"

变量	OLS			SLM			SEM
变量	系数	t统计量	95%置信区间	系数	Z值	95%置信区间	系数	Z值	95%置信区间
常数	4.531	68.857	[4.388,4.674]	6.647	4.634	[3.490,9.804]	4.529	63.245	[4.373,4.685]
F₁	0.151^**	2.229	[0.003,0.300]	0.135^**	2.447	[0.014,0.257]	0.155^***	2.663	[0.028,0.282]
F₂	0.272^***	3.995	[0.123,0.420]	0.262^***	4.799	[0.142,0.383]	0.291^***	4.784	[0.159,0.424]
F₃	0.127^*	1.865	[-0.021,0.275]	0.116^**	2.104	[-0.005,0.237]	0.132^**	2.321	[0.008,0.256]
R²	0.670			0.716			0.675
Log likelihood	0.955			1.865			0.998
LM-Error	3.457^*
Robust LM-Error	0.067
LM-Lag	5.608^**
Robust LM-Lag	1.087^*
空间滞后项 $ρ$				-0.461	-1.475	[-1.679,0.237]
空间误差项 $λ$							0.209	0.596	[-0.555,0.973]

表5

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	2001年	2004年	2008年	2012年
第一象限（HH）	上海、苏州、无锡、杭州、台州	上海、苏州、无锡、杭州、台州	上海、苏州、无锡、杭州	上海、苏州、无锡、南通、常州、南京、杭州
第二象限（LH）	湖州、嘉兴、舟山	湖州、嘉兴、舟山、泰州、常州	常州、嘉兴、湖州、舟山、泰州、台州	扬州、镇江、泰州、湖州、嘉兴、台州、舟山
第三象限（LL）	扬州、镇江、泰州、南通、绍兴	扬州、镇江、南通、绍兴	扬州、镇江	绍兴
第四象限（HL）	南京、常州、宁波	南京、宁波	南京、南通、宁波、绍兴	宁波

符号	变量说明	符号	变量说明
X₁	普通高等学校数	X₁₁	科学与教育财政支出
X₂	高校在校大学生数	X₁₂	年末金融机构贷款余额
X₃	研发经费占GDP比例	X₁₃	实际利用外资投资金额
X₄	公共图书馆图书藏量	X₁₄	人均生产总值
X₅	国际互联网用户数	X₁₅	市辖区年末总人口
X₆	规模以上工业企业数	X₁₆	邮电业务收入
X₇	外商投资企业数	X₁₇	移动电话用户数
X₈	信息传输、计算机服务业和软件业及科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业从业人员	X₁₈	地方财政科技支出占地方财政支出比重
X₉	工业增加值占GDP比例	X₁₉	固定资产投资额
X₁₀	高新技术产业总产值

符号	变量说明	正交旋转后的因子载荷矩阵			符号	变量说明	正交旋转后的因子载荷矩阵
符号	变量说明	F₁			F₂	F₃	F₁	F₂	F₃
X₁	普通高等学校数	0.881	0.442	0.038	X₁₁	科学与教育财政支出	0.850	0.218	0.455
X₂	高校在校大学生数	0.792	0.572	0.004	X₁₂	年末金融机构贷款余额	0.918	0.193	0.277
X₃	研发经费占GDP比例	0.590	0.746	0.186	X₁₃	实际利用外资投资金额	0.476	0.741	0.441
X₄	公共图书馆图书藏量	0.894	0.319	0.182	X₁₄	人均生产总值	0.082	0.865	0.416
X₅	国际互联网用户数	0.553	0.456	0.247	X₁₅	市辖区年末总人口	0.863	0.303	0.081
X₆	规模以上工业企业数	0.537	0.274	0.768	X₁₆	邮电业务收入	0.866	0.163	0.454
X₇	外商投资企业数	0.560	0.406	0.707	X₁₇	移动电话用户数	0.853	0.150	0.486
X₈	信息传输、计算机服务业和软件业及科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业从业人员	0.932	0.314	-0.018	X₁₈	地方财政科技支出占地方财政支出比例	0.484	0.519	0.464
X₉	工业增加值占GDP比例	-0.171	0.275	0.928	X₁₉	固定资产投资额	0.705	0.512	0.403
X₁₀	高新技术产业总产值	0.493	0.592	0.552