地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1138-1146.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201706011

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基于高精度地形表面模型的城市雨洪情景模拟与应急响应能力评价

殷杰1,2()   

  1. 1. 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海 200241
    2. 华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海 200241
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-21 修回日期:2017-04-11 出版日期:2017-06-30 发布日期:2017-07-18
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:殷杰(1983- ),男,江苏泰州人,博士,研究员,主要从事城市自然地理与灾害风险管理研究。E-mail: jyin@geo.ecnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41371493,41201550);上海市气象科技联合研究中心项目(2015-03)

Urban pluvial flood scenario modeling and emergency response assessment using high resolution Lidar-DSM

Jie YIN1,2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Geo-information Science of the Ministry of Education, East China NormalUniversity, Shanghai 200241, China
    2. School of Geographic Sciences, East China NormalUniversity, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2017-01-21 Revised:2017-04-11 Online:2017-06-30 Published:2017-07-18

摘要:

在气候变化和城市化背景下,日益频发的暴雨洪涝对城市人员、财产及功能造成了严重的灾害影响,突出表现为城市路网被淹导致的交通与公共服务中断。因此,城市暴雨洪涝灾害的应急管理与风险防范已经成为当前自然灾害研究的热点问题之一。选取受暴雨洪涝灾害影响严重的上海市中心城区(南京东路CBD)为研究区,采用高精度暴雨洪涝数值模拟与GIS空间分析相结合的研究方法,评估了不同降水强度情景和积水深度条件下,城市路网的可通行性与城市关键公共服务部门(医疗和公安)的应急响应能力。研究表明,基于高精度地形表面模型的城市雨洪模拟与应急响应能力评估方法,具有较高的实用性和有效性,可为城市洪灾应对与精细化应急管理提供科学支撑。

关键词: 暴雨洪涝, 情景模拟, 公共服务, 应急响应, 上海

Abstract:

In the context of climate change and urbanization, increasing pluvial flood disasters leads to severe losses and impacts of urban inhabitants, properties and functions, particularly in the interruption of public services (e.g. urban transportation and emergency response). Therefore, the emergency management and risk adaptation of urban pluvial flooding have been one of the hotspots in natural hazards research. The city center (East Nanjing Road-Central Business District) of Shanghai, China has been selected as a study area because it exhibits enhanced consequences of pluvial flooding. A simple 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-HydroInundation2D), which couples hydrological processes with surfacewater flow modeling in urban environment, was used to derive pluvial flood inundation associated with urban road network. Furthermore, GIS-based spatial analysis (network analysis and cost distance algorithm) was employed to evaluate the transportation conditions and emergency responses (accessibility and service coverage) of critical public service sectors (Medical Treatment and Public Security) under multiple scenarios of rainfall magnitudes (1 in 10 year and 1 in 100 year return periods) and flood thresholds (30 cm and 50 cm). The results show that: (1) at normal (no rainfall or less than 1 in 1 year rainfall) condition, urban emergency response could cover almost the total (more than 99%) area in 10 minutes or less, among which ambulances and police vehicles could reach the majority (82% and 87%) of the study area within 5 minutes. (2) During 1 in 10 year rainfall scenario, most of the urban roadways was predicted to be accessible and more than 90% of the city center would be reachable in 10 minutes. The response areas of large or medium emergency vehicles with better performance of water-wading (above 50 cm) would even be close to the service coverage at normal condition. (3) Under 1 in 100 year rainfall scenario, as the rainfall intensity significantly overwhelm the design capacity of storm sewer drainage system, majority of the urban road network would be highly inundated. Over half of the study area could be completely inaccessible within 10 minutes, according to 30 cm threshold. By contrast, the emergency service area would largely increase to about 93% of the city center when flood restriction subject to 50 cm threshold. This study suggests that the framework developed for coupling high resolution pluvial flood modeling with urban emergency response assessment, is proved to be practical and effective and will provide a scientific basis for urban flood mitigation and smart emergency management.

Key words: pluvial flooding, scenario modeling, public service, emergency response, Shanghai