地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (6): 1183-1189.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201706015

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过去300年华南地区冷冬指数序列的重建与特征

丁玲玲1,2(), 郑景云2   

  1. 1. 湖北文理学院汉江研究院,襄阳 441053
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2017-01-11 修回日期:2017-04-09 出版日期:2017-06-30 发布日期:2017-06-30
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:丁玲玲(1984- ),女,河南漯河人,博士,主要研究方向为气候变化。E-mail: linglingding@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41601046,41430528,41630529)

Reconstruction and characteristics of series of winter cold index in South China in the past 300 years

Lingling DING1,2(), Jingyun ZHENG2   

  1. 1. Institute of Hanjiang, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, Hubei, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-01-11 Revised:2017-04-09 Online:2017-06-30 Published:2017-06-30

摘要:

根据华南地区历史文献记录的特点,参照华南地区冬季气候和天气特征,提出利用史料记录重建华南地区冷冬指数的方法,重建1710-2009年华南地区冷冬指数序列,据此分析过去300年华南地区的冬季冷暖变化特征。结果表明:1710-2009年间,华南地区平均冷冬指数为2.2,相邻年最大相差为3.0,相邻年代最大相差为0.7,波动较为明显;过去300年可分为3个时段:1710-1834年相对暖期、1835-1892年相对冷期和1893-2009年的相对暖期;华南地区冬季冷暖变化呈显著变暖趋势;华南地区冷冬指数序列存在显著的100年、50年、40年和8年周期;重建序列与同时期器测序列具有较高的相关性,可从一定程度上反映华南过去300年冬季变化的规律性,对华南地区和中国冬季冷暖变化特征研究可能具有些许参考意义。

关键词: 华南地区, 霜雪冰冻, 冷冬指数, 过去300年

Abstract:

Climate change research in South China extending back before the current century not only has considerable importance to researching the features of climate change and predicting future climate change and climate disasters in South China, but also plays a positive role in analysis of the characteristics of climate change throughout China. In this paper, there are two data sources: historical documents and modern meteorological observations. Historical documents include Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records and collections from local gazettes and other historical data. A total of 1499 records from stations operational from 1736 to 1911 were collected from Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records with about 9 stations recorded yearly, and 1237 records from 1710 to 2000 were collected from other historical documents with about 4 records yearly. Based on the features of records in historical documents and characteristics of winter climate in South China, methods for reconstructing the winter cold index were established to reconstruct the series of winter cold index for analysis of the characteristics of cold and warm in winters in South China from 1710 to 2009 by clustering analysis, the Mann-Kendall method and power spectrum analysis. The results showed the following: (1) The average winter cold index in South China was 2.2 from 1710 to 2009, with a maximum index range of neighboring years of 3.0 (the difference between 1834 and 1835) and maximum index difference of adjacent decades of 0.7 (the difference between the 1890s and 1900s), which indicated an obvious change in winter cold. (2) Winter temperatures were warmer in the 20th century than in the 19th century. (3) The cold and warm changes in winters in South China from 1710 to 2009 could be divided into three stages: warmer winter existed during the two periods from 1710 to 1834 and from 1893 to 2009, while it colder winters were observed in from 1835 to 1892. (4) The cold winter index in South China had no apparent change from 1710 to 2009, with an obvious warming trend indicated by the Mann-Kendall method. (5) The results of spectral analysis showed the cold winter index in South China had dominant cycle of 100, 50, 40, and 8 years. (6) There was a significant correlation between winter cold index and instrumental series in the same periods, which showed that the constructed series could reflect the features of winter change in the past 300 years at some scale and had some reference meaning regarding research into the characteristics of winter of South China and China overall.

Key words: South China, records of frost, snow and freezing, winter cold index, past 300 years