地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1428-1442.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201708003
侯丽1,2(), 李书恒1,2(
), 陈兰1,2, 史阿荣1,2, 白红英1,2, 王俊1,2
收稿日期:
2017-03-15
修回日期:
2017-06-12
出版日期:
2017-08-10
发布日期:
2017-09-04
作者简介:
作者简介:侯丽(1993- ),女,山西晋中人,硕士,主要从事树木年轮与气候变化研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Li HOU1,2(), Shuheng LI1,2(
), Lan CHEN1,2, Arong SHI1,2, Hongying BAI1,2, Jun WANG1,2
Received:
2017-03-15
Revised:
2017-06-12
Online:
2017-08-10
Published:
2017-09-04
摘要:
利用改进的PPR(point-by-point regression)方法,将气温相关系数图与搜索圆进行加权平均得到搜索系数图,选取出秦岭气象站点与气温显著相关的树轮宽度年表,重建了秦岭地区32个气象站点1835-2013年冬末初春2-4月的平均气温。同时在考虑到南北坡差异的影响下,采用基于DEM的克里金(Kriging)插值法,将各气象站点重建序列进行插值,获取了秦岭的历史气温面域数据。取通过检验气象站点重建序列的平均值作为秦岭近200年来2-4月历史气温,重建结果表明:近200年来秦岭地区存在1835-1869年、1874-1886年、1918-1925年、1960-1998年四次偏冷期以及1887-1917年、1926-1959年、1999-2013年三次偏暖期。小波分析显示重建序列存在2~3年、2~5年、7~11年、11年准周期变化。秦岭南北坡冬末初春气候变化整体趋势较一致,但以1959年为转折点,1959年之前北坡较南坡气温变化剧烈,之后南坡比北坡剧烈。插值结果表明秦岭气温受地形影响显著,偏冷期的气温波动值比暖期低1 ℃左右,偏暖期的最低温有逐渐上升趋势。从空间差异来看插值结果发现坡向差异较为明显,北坡气温变化幅度除1960-1998年偏冷期为16.57 ℃外,基本呈缩小趋势,而南坡无明显变化。
侯丽, 李书恒, 陈兰, 史阿荣, 白红英, 王俊. 近200年来秦岭2-4月历史气温重建与空间差异[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1428-1442.
Li HOU, Shuheng LI, Lan CHEN, Arong SHI, Hongying BAI, Jun WANG. Reconstruction of the historical temperature from February to April of the Qinling Mountains in recent 200 years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(8): 1428-1442.
表1
研究所用年表及样点的基本信息"
区域 | 序列号 | 经度 | 纬度 | 树种 | 海拔(m) | 起始年 | SSS≥0.85起始年 | 来源 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
华山 | CHIN056 | 110°05′E | 34°28′N | 华山松 | 1950 | 1458 | 1508 | ITRDB |
华山 | CHIN057 | 110°05′E | 34°28′N | 华山松 | 2050 | 1596 | 1606 | ITRDB |
华山 | CHIN058 | 110°05′E | 34°28′N | 华山松 | 2000 | 1598 | 1599 | ITRDB |
佛坪 | FP2 | 107°50′E | 33°41′N | 秦岭冷杉 | 2350 | 1841 | 1858 | 刘洪滨等[28] |
佛坪 | FP3 | 107°48′E | 33°39′N | 铁杉 | 1540 | 1568 | 1632 | 刘洪滨等[28] |
佛坪 | FPA | 107°48′E | 33°43′N | 铁杉 | 2838 | 1605 | 1639 | 刘洪滨等[28] |
佛坪 | FPB | 107°48′E | 33°43′N | 秦岭冷杉 | 2838 | 1789 | 1827 | 刘洪滨等[28] |
镇安 | ZA1 | 108°45′E | 33°25′N | 秦岭冷杉 | 2500 | 1618 | 1755 | 刘洪滨等[31] |
镇安 | ZA2 | 108°50′E | 33°25′N | 铁杉 | 2200 | 1856 | 1874 | 刘洪滨等[31] |
镇安 | GDF1 | 108°23′49″E | 33°23′49″N | 冷杉 | 2250 | 1878 | 1894 | 采集 |
镇安 | GDF2 | 108°36′48″E | 33°23′50″N | 冷杉 | 2290 | 1871 | 1892 | 采集 |
佛坪 | GWT1 | 107°51′9″E | 33°41′12″N | 冷杉 | 2221 | 1920 | 1938 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | NBL | 108°59′E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2592 | 1856 | 1940 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | CDS1 | 108°58′50″E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2597.3 | 1908 | 1930 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | CDX1 | 108°59′E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2557.7 | 1913 | 1934 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | CTM | 108°59′E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2355.7 | 1960 | 1964 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | NTM1 | 108°59′E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2399 | 1956 | 1966 | 采集 |
牛背梁 | NTM2 | 108°59′E | 33°52′N | 冷杉 | 2425.5 | 1856 | 1964 | 采集 |
光秃山 | SCK1 | 108°46′21″E | 33°50′47″N | 冷杉 | 2550.5 | 1947 | 1973 | 采集 |
光秃山 | SCK2 | 108°46′33″E | 33°50′48″N | 冷杉 | 2564.7 | 1845 | 1965 | 采集 |
光秃山 | SCK3 | 108°46′13″E | 33°50′42″N | 冷杉 | 2522.1 | 1955 | 1964 | 采集 |
光头山 | DST | 108°47′11″E | 33°51′20″N | 冷杉 | 2831.24 | 1923 | 1955 | 采集 |
光头山 | SPZ | 108°46′36″E | 33°51′07″N | 冷杉 | 2627 | 1886 | 1960 | 采集 |
太白山 | YWD | 107°46′E | 33°56′N | 红杉 | 3200-3321 | 1727 | 1849 | 采集 |
太白山 | YWDZ | 107°46′E | 33°50′-55′N | 红杉 | 3093-3124 | 1897 | 1912 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS1 | 107°48′30″E | 34°0′6″N | 红杉 | 3206 | 1849 | 1858 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS2 | 107°48′33″E | 34°0′23″N | 红杉 | 3062 | 1845 | 1879 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS3 | 107°48′37″E | 34°0′22″N | 红杉 | 3068 | 1850 | 1877 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS4 | 107°48′14″E | 33°59′49.19″N | 红杉 | 3402.5 | 1822 | 1952 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS5 | 107°48′4″E | 33°59′29″N | 红杉 | 3346.4 | 1879 | 1958 | 采集 |
太白山 | SBS6 | 107°48′31″E | 34°0′N | 红杉 | 3213.7 | 1902 | 1915 | 采集 |
朱雀 | CDD | 108°36′06″E | 33°50′05″N | 冷杉 | 2640 | 1948 | 1959 | 采集 |
表2
秦岭树轮宽度标准年表统计特征"
统计量 | 平均 敏感度 | 标准差 | 一阶自 相关系数 | 树间平均 相关系数 | 信噪比 | 样本总体 代表性 | 第一主成分所占方差量 | SSS>0.85的第一年(树数) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
宝鸡年表 | 0.2 | 0.27 | 0.62 | 0.44 | 10.59 | 0.91 | 23.6 | 1624(11) |
岐山年表 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.63 | 15.18 | 0.94 | 25.1 | 1783(18) |
眉县年表 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 0.49 | 13.55 | 0.93 | 22.6 | 1674(7) |
周至年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 7.86 | 0.89 | 19.6 | 1549(22) |
户县年表 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 25.72 | 0.96 | 35.2 | 1869(12) |
长安年表 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 8.77 | 0.90 | 17.5 | 1549(24) |
蓝田年表 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 9.13 | 0.90 | 19.8 | 1549(23) |
渭南年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 9.70 | 0.91 | 20 | 1549(22) |
华县年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 9.98 | 0.91 | 19.5 | 1549(22) |
华阴年表 | 0.20 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 0.33 | 14.85 | 0.94 | 26.7 | 1525(13) |
潼关年表 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 8.90 | 0.90 | 21 | 1545(21) |
洛南年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 9.23 | 0.90 | 19.7 | 1549(23) |
凤县年表 | 0.21 | 0.35 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 14.78 | 0.94 | 33.7 | 1858(12) |
太白年表 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 0.53 | 10.64 | 0.91 | 18.9 | 1789(21) |
略阳年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 21.28 | 0.96 | 35.7 | 1848(10) |
留坝年表 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.58 | 0.65 | 11.20 | 0.92 | 18 | 1708(22) |
洋县年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 13.49 | 0.93 | 22.5 | 1712(18) |
城固年表 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 23.64 | 0.96 | 38.8 | 1850(9) |
汉中年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.52 | 32.32 | 0.97 | 39.7 | 1849(9) |
勉县年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 13.02 | 0.93 | 20.9 | 1770(20) |
佛坪年表 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 27.63 | 0.97 | 32.5 | 1858(15) |
宁陕年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.58 | 0.65 | 13.83 | 0.93 | 20.9 | 1771(20) |
石泉年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 13.90 | 0.93 | 22.1 | 1755(19) |
汉阴年表 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.65 | 20.14 | 0.95 | 23.6 | 1755(18) |
紫阳年表 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.68 | 0.60 | 18.92 | 0.95 | 22.8 | 1790(21) |
安康年表 | 0.15 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.56 | 19.71 | 0.95 | 23.4 | 1790(21) |
镇安年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 9.30 | 0.90 | 18.8 | 1549(23) |
旬阳年表 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 9.37 | 0.90 | 20.1 | 1549(22) |
柞水年表 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 1.54 | 0.61 | 27.7 | 1742(7) |
洛南年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 9.23 | 0.90 | 19.7 | 1549(23) |
丹凤年表 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 8.79 | 0.90 | 20.2 | 1549(22) |
山阳年表 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 9.25 | 0.90 | 19.6 | 1549(22) |
表3
回归模型检验统计量"
标准估 计误差 | 复相关 系数 | 方差解 释量 | 调整自由度后方差解释量 | F检验值 | P检验 | D-W值 | 乘积平均 值检验 | 误差缩 减检验 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
宝鸡 | 0.83 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 24.13 | 0.0001 | 1.44 | 12.93 | 0.35 |
岐山 | 0.85 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.40 | 35.37 | 0.0001 | 1.79 | 6.97 | 0.43 |
凤县 | 0.89 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 13.59 | 0.0001 | 1.81 | 4.88 | 0.22 |
太白 | 1.03 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 12.81 | 0.001 | 1.51 | 4.31 | 0.21 |
眉县 | 0.92 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 31.27 | 0.0001 | 1.56 | 5.89 | 0.39 |
佛坪 | 1.05 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 18.79 | 0.0001 | 1.25 | 6.6 | 0.27 |
留坝 | 0.81 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 9.62 | 0.003 | 1.72 | 7.17 | 0.16 |
略阳 | 0.83 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 13.4 | 0.001 | 1.85 | 5.89 | 0.21 |
勉县 | 0.79 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 23.26 | 0.0001 | 1.48 | 4.75 | 0.24 |
汉中 | 0.89 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 12.88 | 0.001 | 1.15 | 6.37 | 0.2 |
城固 | 0.79 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 11.69 | 0.001 | 1.38 | 6.34 | 0.23 |
洋县 | 0.6 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 50.23 | 0.0001 | 1.86 | 13.78 | 0.51 |
周至 | 1.03 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 46.07 | 0.0001 | 1.52 | 7.77 | 0.47 |
户县 | 1.17 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 16.68 | 0.0001 | 1.06 | 5.5 | 0.25 |
长安 | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 47.38 | 0.0001 | 1.65 | 11.6 | 0.48 |
柞水 | 1.8 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 2.72 | 0.103 | 0.34 | 9.18 | 0.05 |
宁陕 | 0.71 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 18.63 | 0.0001 | 1.57 | 5.87 | 0.3 |
镇安 | 1.16 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 24.05 | 0.0001 | 1.41 | 11.14 | 0.32 |
石泉 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 17.76 | 0.0001 | 1.92 | 4.32 | 0.26 |
汉阴 | 0.79 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 16.4 | 0.0001 | 1.32 | 5.23 | 0.31 |
安康 | 0.83 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 24.12 | 0.0001 | 1.44 | 12.92 | 0.35 |
紫阳 | 1.085 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 2.84 | 0.09 | 1.25 | 1.39 | 0.09 |
旬阳 | 1.13 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 11.06 | 0.001 | 0.97 | 6.08 | 0.2 |
潼关 | 1.13 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 29.24 | 0.0001 | 1.43 | 14.3 | 0.37 |
渭南 | 1.03 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 19.98 | 0.0001 | 1.23 | 8.31 | 0.28 |
华县 | 0.81 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.17 | 11.18 | 0.001 | 1.47 | 8.54 | 0.17 |
华阴 | 0.89 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 18.47 | 0.0001 | 1.2 | 14.82 | 0.27 |
蓝田 | 0.87 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 8.66 | 0.005 | 1.2 | 6.57 | 0.17 |
洛南 | 0.86 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 17.74 | 0.0001 | 1.44 | 8.32 | 0.27 |
山阳 | 1.01 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 2.04 | 0.16 | 1.14 | 4.67 | 0.05 |
丹凤 | 1.03 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 4.16 | 0.045 | 1.19 | 3.42 | 0.09 |
商南 | 1.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 1.76 | 0.19 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 0.04 |
表5
秦岭不同冷暖期的重建气温(最低气温 ~ 最高气温)"
年份 | 秦岭气温(℃) | 北坡气温(℃) | 南坡气温(℃) |
---|---|---|---|
1835-1869(冷期) | -7.42~11.40 | -7.42~9.22(16.64) | -6.12~11.40(17.52) |
1874-1886(冷期) | -7.34~11.34 | -7.34~9.18(16.52) | -6.03~11.34(17.37) |
1887-1917(暖期) | -6.80~12.00 | -6.80~9.30(16.1) | -5.55~12.00(17.55) |
1918-1925(冷期) | -7.15~11.68 | -7.15~8.95(16.1) | -5.87~11.68(17.55) |
1926-1959(暖期) | -6.78~12.04 | -6.78~9.31(16.07) | -5.53~12.04(17.57) |
1960-1998(冷期) | -7.46~11.30 | -7.46~9.11(16.57) | -6.15~11.30(17.45) |
1999-2013(暖期) | -6.53~12.00 | -6.53~9.50(16.03) | -5.27~12.00(17.27) |
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