近200年来秦岭2-4月历史气温重建与空间差异

doi:10.11821/dlyj201708003

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用改进的PPR（point-by-point regression）方法,将气温相关系数图与搜索圆进行加权平均得到搜索系数图,选取出秦岭气象站点与气温显著相关的树轮宽度年表,重建了秦岭地区32个气象站点1835-2013年冬末初春2-4月的平均气温。同时在考虑到南北坡差异的影响下,采用基于DEM的克里金（Kriging）插值法,将各气象站点重建序列进行插值,获取了秦岭的历史气温面域数据。取通过检验气象站点重建序列的平均值作为秦岭近200年来2-4月历史气温,重建结果表明：近200年来秦岭地区存在1835-1869年、1874-1886年、1918-1925年、1960-1998年四次偏冷期以及1887-1917年、1926-1959年、1999-2013年三次偏暖期。小波分析显示重建序列存在2~3年、2~5年、7~11年、11年准周期变化。秦岭南北坡冬末初春气候变化整体趋势较一致,但以1959年为转折点,1959年之前北坡较南坡气温变化剧烈,之后南坡比北坡剧烈。插值结果表明秦岭气温受地形影响显著,偏冷期的气温波动值比暖期低1 ℃左右,偏暖期的最低温有逐渐上升趋势。从空间差异来看插值结果发现坡向差异较为明显,北坡气温变化幅度除1960-1998年偏冷期为16.57 ℃外,基本呈缩小趋势,而南坡无明显变化。

关键词: 改进PPR, 树轮宽度, 气温重建, 历史气温插值

Abstract:

In the study, we applied a revised PPR (point-by-point regression) method to obtain the search coefficient chart based on the weighted average values of the temperature-related coefficients and the search circles. The tree-ring width chronologies significantly correlated with the air temperature of the meteorological stations in the Qinling Mountains region were selected to reconstruct the average temperatures from February to April during 1835-2013 at 32 meteorological stations. Considering the variations between the north and south slopes, the reconstructed sequences of the meteorological stations were interpolated by the Kriging based on DEM. The average values of the reconstructed sequence of the meteorological stations were used as the historic temperatures from February to April during recent 200 years in the Qinling Mountains region. The reconstructed results show that: in the 200 years, the Qinling Mountains region experienced four colder periods (1835-1869, 1874-1886, 1918-1925 and 1960-1998), and three warmer periods (1887-1917, 1926-1959 and 1999-2013). Wavelet analysis indicates that there were multi-scale cycles such as 2 to 3 years, 2 to 5 years, 7 to 11 years and 11 years in the reconstructed sequence. The overall trend of temperature change on the north and south slopes of the Qinling Mountains is consistent with that from late winter to early spring, and 1959 is the turning point. The temperature on the north slope changed more sharply than that on the south slope before 1959, while the more severe opposite characteristic occurred after 1959. The interpolation results show that the temperatures of the Qinling Mountains were significantly affected by the topographic factor. The range of about 1 ℃ in the colder period is lower than that in the warmer period. In addition, there was a rising trend of the lowest temperatures in the warmer period. The interpolation results show significant differences between the north and south slopes. The ranges of temperature on the north slope presented a declining trend (except the period 1960-1998, the range of temperature change was 16.57 ℃), while there was no significant change on the south slope.

Key words: revised PPR, tree-ring width, temperature reconstruction, interpolation of historic temperature data

侯丽, 李书恒, 陈兰, 史阿荣, 白红英, 王俊. 近200年来秦岭2-4月历史气温重建与空间差异[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1428-1442.

Li HOU, Shuheng LI, Lan CHEN, Arong SHI, Hongying BAI, Jun WANG. Reconstruction of the historical temperature from February to April of the Qinling Mountains in recent 200 years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(8): 1428-1442.

图/表 11

图1

表1

研究所用年表及样点的基本信息"

区域	序列号	经度	纬度	树种	海拔(m)	起始年	SSS≥0.85起始年	来源
华山	CHIN056	110°05′E	34°28′N	华山松	1950	1458	1508	ITRDB
华山	CHIN057	110°05′E	34°28′N	华山松	2050	1596	1606	ITRDB
华山	CHIN058	110°05′E	34°28′N	华山松	2000	1598	1599	ITRDB
佛坪	FP2	107°50′E	33°41′N	秦岭冷杉	2350	1841	1858	刘洪滨等^[28]
佛坪	FP3	107°48′E	33°39′N	铁杉	1540	1568	1632	刘洪滨等^[28]
佛坪	FPA	107°48′E	33°43′N	铁杉	2838	1605	1639	刘洪滨等^[28]
佛坪	FPB	107°48′E	33°43′N	秦岭冷杉	2838	1789	1827	刘洪滨等^[28]
镇安	ZA1	108°45′E	33°25′N	秦岭冷杉	2500	1618	1755	刘洪滨等^[31]
镇安	ZA2	108°50′E	33°25′N	铁杉	2200	1856	1874	刘洪滨等^[31]
镇安	GDF1	108°23′49″E	33°23′49″N	冷杉	2250	1878	1894	采集
镇安	GDF2	108°36′48″E	33°23′50″N	冷杉	2290	1871	1892	采集
佛坪	GWT1	107°51′9″E	33°41′12″N	冷杉	2221	1920	1938	采集
牛背梁	NBL	108°59′E	33°52′N	冷杉	2592	1856	1940	采集
牛背梁	CDS1	108°58′50″E	33°52′N	冷杉	2597.3	1908	1930	采集
牛背梁	CDX1	108°59′E	33°52′N	冷杉	2557.7	1913	1934	采集
牛背梁	CTM	108°59′E	33°52′N	冷杉	2355.7	1960	1964	采集
牛背梁	NTM1	108°59′E	33°52′N	冷杉	2399	1956	1966	采集
牛背梁	NTM2	108°59′E	33°52′N	冷杉	2425.5	1856	1964	采集
光秃山	SCK1	108°46′21″E	33°50′47″N	冷杉	2550.5	1947	1973	采集
光秃山	SCK2	108°46′33″E	33°50′48″N	冷杉	2564.7	1845	1965	采集
光秃山	SCK3	108°46′13″E	33°50′42″N	冷杉	2522.1	1955	1964	采集
光头山	DST	108°47′11″E	33°51′20″N	冷杉	2831.24	1923	1955	采集
光头山	SPZ	108°46′36″E	33°51′07″N	冷杉	2627	1886	1960	采集
太白山	YWD	107°46′E	33°56′N	红杉	3200-3321	1727	1849	采集
太白山	YWDZ	107°46′E	33°50′-55′N	红杉	3093-3124	1897	1912	采集
太白山	SBS1	107°48′30″E	34°0′6″N	红杉	3206	1849	1858	采集
太白山	SBS2	107°48′33″E	34°0′23″N	红杉	3062	1845	1879	采集
太白山	SBS3	107°48′37″E	34°0′22″N	红杉	3068	1850	1877	采集
太白山	SBS4	107°48′14″E	33°59′49.19″N	红杉	3402.5	1822	1952	采集
太白山	SBS5	107°48′4″E	33°59′29″N	红杉	3346.4	1879	1958	采集
太白山	SBS6	107°48′31″E	34°0′N	红杉	3213.7	1902	1915	采集
朱雀	CDD	108°36′06″E	33°50′05″N	冷杉	2640	1948	1959	采集

表1

表2

秦岭树轮宽度标准年表统计特征"

统计量	平均敏感度	标准差	一阶自相关系数	树间平均相关系数	信噪比	样本总体代表性	第一主成分所占方差量	SSS>0.85的第一年（树数）
宝鸡年表	0.2	0.27	0.62	0.44	10.59	0.91	23.6	1624（11）
岐山年表	0.16	0.27	0.69	0.63	15.18	0.94	25.1	1783（18）
眉县年表	0.15	0.27	0.68	0.49	13.55	0.93	22.6	1674（7）
周至年表	0.18	0.20	0.41	0.31	7.86	0.89	19.6	1549（22）
户县年表	0.15	0.19	0.57	0.48	25.72	0.96	35.2	1869（12）
长安年表	0.17	0.20	0.44	0.32	8.77	0.90	17.5	1549（24）
蓝田年表	0.18	0.19	0.39	0.32	9.13	0.90	19.8	1549（23）
渭南年表	0.18	0.20	0.38	0.32	9.70	0.91	20	1549（22）
华县年表	0.18	0.20	0.39	0.33	9.98	0.91	19.5	1549（22）
华阴年表	0.20	0.21	0.34	0.33	14.85	0.94	26.7	1525（13）
潼关年表	0.17	0.19	0.40	0.32	8.90	0.90	21	1545（21）
洛南年表	0.18	0.20	0.38	0.32	9.23	0.90	19.7	1549（23）
凤县年表	0.21	0.35	0.66	0.49	14.78	0.94	33.7	1858（12）
太白年表	0.15	0.27	0.68	0.53	10.64	0.91	18.9	1789（21）
略阳年表	0.15	0.20	0.60	0.50	21.28	0.96	35.7	1848（10）
留坝年表	0.15	0.19	0.58	0.65	11.20	0.92	18	1708（22）
洋县年表	0.15	0.20	0.60	0.67	13.49	0.93	22.5	1712（18）
城固年表	0.15	0.19	0.57	0.55	23.64	0.96	38.8	1850（9）
汉中年表	0.15	0.20	0.60	0.52	32.32	0.97	39.7	1849（9）
勉县年表	0.15	0.20	0.59	0.62	13.02	0.93	20.9	1770（20）
佛坪年表	0.14	0.19	0.52	0.53	27.63	0.97	32.5	1858（15）
宁陕年表	0.15	0.20	0.58	0.65	13.83	0.93	20.9	1771（20）
石泉年表	0.15	0.20	0.59	0.64	13.90	0.93	22.1	1755（19）
汉阴年表	0.15	0.20	0.57	0.65	20.14	0.95	23.6	1755（18）
紫阳年表	0.16	0.27	0.68	0.60	18.92	0.95	22.8	1790（21）
安康年表	0.15	0.27	0.69	0.56	19.71	0.95	23.4	1790（21）
镇安年表	0.18	0.20	0.38	0.33	9.30	0.90	18.8	1549（23）
旬阳年表	0.18	0.19	0.39	0.32	9.37	0.90	20.1	1549（22）
柞水年表	0.17	0.23	0.55	0.54	1.54	0.61	27.7	1742（7）
洛南年表	0.18	0.20	0.38	0.32	9.23	0.90	19.7	1549（23）
丹凤年表	0.18	0.19	0.39	0.31	8.79	0.90	20.2	1549（22）
山阳年表	0.18	0.20	0.40	0.32	9.25	0.90	19.6	1549（22）

表2

图2

表3

回归模型检验统计量"

	标准估计误差	复相关系数	方差解释量	调整自由度后方差解释量	F检验值	P检验	D-W值	乘积平均值检验	误差缩减检验
宝鸡	0.83	0.32	0.32	0.31	24.13	0.0001	1.44	12.93	0.35
岐山	0.85	0.41	0.41	0.40	35.37	0.0001	1.79	6.97	0.43
凤县	0.89	0.22	0.22	0.20	13.59	0.0001	1.81	4.88	0.22
太白	1.03	0.20	0.20	0.19	12.81	0.001	1.51	4.31	0.21
眉县	0.92	0.40	0.40	0.36	31.27	0.0001	1.56	5.89	0.39
佛坪	1.05	0.31	0.31	0.26	18.79	0.0001	1.25	6.6	0.27
留坝	0.81	0.16	0.16	0.14	9.62	0.003	1.72	7.17	0.16
略阳	0.83	0.21	0.21	0.20	13.4	0.001	1.85	5.89	0.21
勉县	0.79	0.31	0.31	0.30	23.26	0.0001	1.48	4.75	0.24
汉中	0.89	0.20	0.20	0.19	12.88	0.001	1.15	6.37	0.2
城固	0.79	0.23	0.23	0.21	11.69	0.001	1.38	6.34	0.23
洋县	0.6	0.52	0.52	0.48	50.23	0.0001	1.86	13.78	0.51
周至	1.03	0.50	0.50	0.46	46.07	0.0001	1.52	7.77	0.47
户县	1.17	0.25	0.25	0.23	16.68	0.0001	1.06	5.5	0.25
长安	0.77	0.50	0.50	0.47	47.38	0.0001	1.65	11.6	0.48
柞水	1.8	0.05	0.05	0.03	2.72	0.103	0.34	9.18	0.05
宁陕	0.71	0.27	0.27	0.25	18.63	0.0001	1.57	5.87	0.3
镇安	1.16	0.32	0.32	0.30	24.05	0.0001	1.41	11.14	0.32
石泉	0.72	0.27	0.27	0.26	17.76	0.0001	1.92	4.32	0.26
汉阴	0.79	0.24	0.24	0.22	16.4	0.0001	1.32	5.23	0.31
安康	0.83	0.32	0.32	0.31	24.12	0.0001	1.44	12.92	0.35
紫阳	1.085	0.05	0.05	0.03	2.84	0.09	1.25	1.39	0.09
旬阳	1.13	0.18	0.18	0.16	11.06	0.001	0.97	6.08	0.2
潼关	1.13	0.36	0.36	0.34	29.24	0.0001	1.43	14.3	0.37
渭南	1.03	0.28	0.28	0.26	19.98	0.0001	1.23	8.31	0.28
华县	0.81	0.19	0.19	0.17	11.18	0.001	1.47	8.54	0.17
华阴	0.89	0.27	0.27	0.26	18.47	0.0001	1.2	14.82	0.27
蓝田	0.87	0.20	0.20	0.13	8.66	0.005	1.2	6.57	0.17
洛南	0.86	0.26	0.26	0.25	17.74	0.0001	1.44	8.32	0.27
山阳	1.01	0.04	0.04	0.02	2.04	0.16	1.14	4.67	0.05
丹凤	1.03	0.08	0.08	0.06	4.16	0.045	1.19	3.42	0.09
商南	1.01	0.03	0.03	0.01	1.76	0.19	1.54	2.27	0.04

表3

图3

图4

图5

表4

图6

表5

参考文献 67

[1]	吴祥定. 树木年轮与气候变化. 北京: 气象出版社, 1990.
	[Wu Xiangding.Tree Rings and Climate Change. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1990.]
[2]	葛全胜, 郑景云, 郝志新, 等. 过去2000年中国气候变化研究的新进展. 地理学报, 2014, 69(9): 1248-1258.
	[Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, et al.States-of-the-arts in the study of climate changes over China for the past 2000 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(9): 1248-1258.]
[3]	郑景云, 邵雪梅, 郝志新, 等. 过去2000年中国气候变化研究. 地理研究, 2010, 29(9): 1561-1570.
	[Zheng Jingyun, Shao Xuemei, Hao Zhixin, et al.An overview of research on climate change in China during the past 2000 years. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(9): 1561-1570.]
[4]	刘斌, 刘健, 王志远. 中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比. 地理研究, 2016, 35(9): 1659-1671. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201609006
	[Liu Bin, Liu Jian, Wang Zhiyuan.Inter-hemispheric comparison of characteristics and causes of climate change during the Medieval Warm Period based on CESM simulation. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(9): 1659-1671.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201609006
[5]	杨保, 史峰, Sonechkin D M, 等. 过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(2): 485-491. doi: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1306-0039
	[Yang Bao, Shi Feng, Sonechkin D M, et al.Research progress in millennium paleoclimate reconstructions. Journal of Desert Research, 2011, 31(2): 485-491.] doi: 10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1306-0039
[6]	Jones P, Mann M.Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 2004, 42(2): 1-42.
[7]	Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Hughes M K, et al.Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008, 105(36): 13252-13257.
[8]	Rutherford S, Mann M E, Osborn T J, et al.Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions: Sensitivity to method, predictor network, target season, and target domain. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(13): 2308-2329. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3351.1
[9]	Mann M E, Rutherford S, Wahl E, et al.Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstruction of past climate. Journal of Climate, 2005, 18(20): 4097-4107. doi: 10.1175/JCLI3564.1
[10]	Waple A M, Mann M E, Bradley R S.Long-term patterns of solar irradiance forcing in model experiments and proxy based surface temperature reconstructions. Climate Dynamics, 2002, 18(7): 563-578. doi: 10.1007/s00382-001-0199-3
[11]	Fischer E M, Luterbacher J, Zorita E, et al.European climate response to tropical volcanic eruptions over the last half millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 2007, 34(5): 306-316. doi: 10.1029/2006GL027992
[12]	Lee T C K, Zwiers F W, Tsao M. Evaluation of proxy-based millennial reconstruction methods. Climate Dynamics, 2008, 31(2): 263-281. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0351-9
[13]	Cook E R, Briffa K R, Jones P D.Spatial regression methods in dendroclimatology: A review and comparison of two techniques. International Journal of Climatology, 1994, 14(4): 379-402. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370140404
[14]	Neukom R, Luterbacher J, Villalba R, et al.Multiproxy summer and winter surface air temperature field reconstructions for southern South America covering the past centuries. Climate Dynamics, 2011, 37(1-2): 35-51. doi: 10.1007/s00382-010-0793-3
[15]	Cook E R, Meko D M, Stahle D W, et al.Drought reconstructions for the Continental United States. Journal of Climate, 1999, 12(4): 1145-1162.
[16]	Cook E R, Esper J, D'Arrigo R D. Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2004, 23(20-22): 2063-2074. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.08.013
[17]	Brrffa K R, Jones P D, Wigley T M L, et al. Climate reconstrution from tree rings: Part 2, Spatial reconstruction of summer mean sea-level pressure patterns over Great Britain. Journal of Climatology, 1986, 6(1): 1-15. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370060102
[18]	方克艳. 近四百年来西北地区气候变化的树轮记录研究. 兰州: 兰州大学博士学位论文, 2010.
	[Fang Keyan.Climate change over the past 400 years in northwestern China as inferred from tree rings. Lanzhou: Doctoral Dissertation of Lanzhou University, 2010.]
[19]	李颖俊. 祁连山地区树轮记录的气候变化研究. 兰州: 兰州大学博士学位论文, 2011.
	[Li Yingjun.Tree-ring based climate reconstruction for Qilian Mountains. Lanzhou: Doctoral Dissertation of Lanzhou University, 2011.]
[20]	Cook E R, Woodhouse C A, Eakin C M, et al.Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States. Science, 2004, 306(5): 1015-1018. doi: 10.1126/science.1102586 pmid: 15472040
[21]	Meko D, Cook E R, Stahle D W, et al.Spatial patterns of tree-growth anomalies in the United States and Southeastern Canada. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6(9): 1773-1786.
[22]	Cook E R, Seager R, Kushnir Y, et al.Old world megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Journal of Climatology, 2015, 6(1): 1-9. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500561 pmid: 4640589
[23]	Cook E R, Anchukaitis K J, Buckley B M, et al.Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science, 2010, 328(5977): 486-489. doi: 10.1126/science.1185188 pmid: 2041349851012
[24]	邵雪梅, 吴祥定. 华山树木年轮年表的建立. 地理学报, 1994, 49(2): 174-181.
	[Shao Xuemei, Wu Xiangding.Tree-ring chronologies for Pinus armandi franch from Huashan, China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1994, 49(2): 174-181.]
[25]	吴祥定, 邵雪梅. 树木年轮资料的可靠性分析: 以陕西华山松为例. 地理科学进展, 1997, 16(1): 51-56. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.1997.01.009
	[Wu Xiangding, Shao Xuemei.A study on the reliability of tree-ring data: An example of Huashan pine from Shaanxi. Progress in Geography, 1997, 16(1): 51-56.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.1997.01.009
[26]	吴祥定, 邵雪梅. 中国秦岭地区树木年轮密度对气候响应的初步分析. 应用气象学报, 1994, 5(2): 253-256.
	[Wu Xiangding, Shao Xuemei.A preliminary analysis on response of tree-ring density to climate in the Qinling Mountains of China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1994, 5(2): 253-256.]
[27]	刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 采用秦岭冷杉年轮宽度重建陕西镇安1755年以来的初春温度. 气象学报, 2000, 58(2): 223-233. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2000.023
	[Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei.Reconstruction of early-spring temperature at Zhennan from 1755 using tree ring chronology. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2000, 58(2): 223-233.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2000.023
[28]	刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 秦岭南坡佛坪1789年以来1-4月平均温度重建. 应用气象学报, 2003, 14(2): 188-196.
	[Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei.Reconstruction of January to April mean temperature at Qinling Mts from1789 to 1992 using tree ring chronologies. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2003, 14(2): 188-196.]
[29]	刘禹, 马利民, 蔡秋芳, 等. 依据陕西秦岭镇安树木年轮重建3-4月份气温序列. 自然科学进展, 2001, 11(2): 157-162.
	[Liu Yu, Ma Limin, Cai Qiufang, et al.Reconstruction of March to April temperature using tree ring data of Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi province. Progress in Natural Science, 2001, 11(2): 157-162.]
[30]	刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 利用树轮重建秦岭地区历史时期初春温度变化. 地理学报, 2003, 58(6): 879-884.
	[Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei.Reconstruction of early-spring temperature of Qinling Mountains using tree-ring chronologies. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(6): 879-884.]
[31]	刘洪滨, 邵雪梅. 秦岭镇安和佛坪地区树轮宽度年表的建立. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(2): 235. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2003.02.018
	[Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei.Tree-ring width chronologies of Zhen'an and Foping, Qinling Mountains region. Quaternary Sciences. 2003, 23(2): 235.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2003.02.018
[32]	蔡秋芳, 刘禹, 王艳超. 陕西太白山树轮气候学研究. 地球环境学报, 2012, 3(3): 874-880.
	[Cai Qiufang, Liu Yu, Wang Yanchao.Dendroclimate investigation of Chinese Pine in Taibai Mountain, Shaanxi province. Journal of Earth Environment, 2012, 3(3): 874-880.]
[33]	刘禹, 刘娜, 宋慧明, 等. 以树轮宽度重建秦岭中段分水岭地区1-7月平均气温. 气候变化研究进展, 2009, 5(5): 260-265. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2009.05.003
	[Liu Yu, Liu Na, Song Huiming, et al.Reconstructed mean air temperature from January to July at the divide sampling site in the Mid-Qinling Mountains with tree-ring widths. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2009, 5(5): 260-265.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2009.05.003
[34]	Liu Y, Linderholm H W, Song Huiming, et al.Temperature variations recorded in Pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains, central China. Boreas, 2008, 38(2): 285-291. doi: 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2008.00065.x
[35]	秦进, 白红英, 李书恒, 等. 太白山南北坡高山林线太白红杉对气候变化的响应差异. 生态学报, 2016, 36(17): 1-10. doi: 10.5846/stxb201502060304
	[Qin Jin, Bai Hongying, Li Shuheng, et al.Differences in growth response of Larix chinensis to climate change at the upper timberline of southern and northern slopes of Mt. Taibai in central Qinling Mountains, China. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(17): 1-10.] doi: 10.5846/stxb201502060304
[36]	Dang Haishan, Zhang Yanjun, Jiang Mingxi, et al.Growth performance and range shift of the subalpine fir (Abies fargesii) in the Qinling Mountains, China. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 2010, 17(2): 162-171. doi: 10.1080/13504500903565037
[37]	Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshou, et al.Tree-ring based temperature reconstruction for the west Qinling Mountains (China): Linkages to the High Asia, solar activity and Pacific-Atlantic Ocean. Geochronometria, 2014, 41(3): 234-244. doi: 10.2478/s13386-013-0159-9
[38]	Song H, Liu Y, Li Q, et al.Tree-ring based May-July temperature reconstruction since AD 1630 on the western Loess Plateau, China. Plos One, 2014, 9(4): e93504. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0093504 pmid: 3972095
[39]	刘禹, 田沁花, 宋慧明, 等. 以树轮宽度重建公元1558年以来华山5-6月平均温度及20世纪中后期升温. 第四纪研究, 2009, 29(5): 888-895.
	[Liu Yu, Tian Qinhua, Song Huiming, et al.Tree-ring width based May-June mean temperature reconstruction for Huashan since A.D.1558 and 20th century warming. Quaternary Sciences, 2009, 29(5): 888-895.]
[40]	史江峰, 鹿化煜, 万建东, 等. 采用华山松树轮宽度重建秦岭东缘近百年冬半年温度. 第四纪研究, 2009, 29(4): 831-836. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2009.04.20
	[Shi Jiangfeng, Lu Huayu, Wan Jiandong, et al.Winter-half year temperature reconstruction of last century using Pinus armandii franch tree-ring width chronology in the eastern Qinling Mountains. Quaternary Sciences, 2009, 29(4): 831-836.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-7410.2009.04.20
[41]	田沁花, 刘禹, 蔡秋芳, 等. 油松树轮记录的过去134年伏牛山5-7月平均最高温度. 地理学报, 2009, 64(7): 879-887. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.07.012
	[Tian Qinhua, Liu Yu, Cai Qiufang, et al.The maximum temperature of May-July inferred from tree-ring in Funiu Mountain since 1874 AD. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(7): 879-887.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2009.07.012
[42]	Chen Feng, Zhang Ruibo, Wang Huiqin, et al.Recent climate warming of Central China reflected by temperature-sensitive tree growth in the eastern Qinling Mountains and its linkages to the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Journal of Mountain Science, 2015, 12(2): 396-403. doi: 10.1007/s11629-014-3196-9
[43]	Chen Feng, Yuan Yujiang, Wei Wenshou, et al.Reconstructed precipitation for the north-central China over the past 380 years and its linkages to East Asian summer monsoon variability. Quaternary International, 283: 36-45.
[44]	Yang F, Wang N, Shi F, et al.Multi-proxy temperature reconstruction from the West Qinling Mountains, China for the past 500 years. Plos One, 2013, 8(2): e57638. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0057638 pmid: 3579785
[45]	Yang F, Wang N, Shi F, et al.The spatial distribution of precipitation over the West Qinling region, China, AD 1470-2000. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 2016, 443: 278-285. doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.003
[46]	白红英. 秦巴山区森林植被对环境变化的响应. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014.
	[Bai Hongying.The Response of Forse Vegetation to Environment Changes in Qinba Mountains. Beijing: Science Press, 2014.]
[47]	张静静, 郑辉, 朱连奇, 等. 豫西山地植被NDVI及其气候响应的多维变化. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 765-778. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201704014
	[Zhang Jingjing, Zheng Hui, Zhu Lianqi, et al.Multi-dimensional changes of vegetation NDVI and its response to climate in Western Henan Mountains. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(4): 765-778.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201704014
[48]	Wigley T M L, Briffa K R, Jones P D. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 1984, 23: 201-213.
[49]	Stokes M A, Smiley T Y.An Introduction to Tree Ring Dating. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1968.
[50]	何海. 使用WinDENDRO测量树轮宽度及交叉定年方法. 重庆师范大学学报: 自然科学版. 2005, 22(4): 39-44.
	[He Hai.Measurement of tree-ring width with WinDENDRO and crossdating methods. Journal of Chongqing Journal of Chongqing Normal University: Natural Science, 2005, 22(4): 39-44.]
[51]	Holmes R L.Dendrochronology Program Library Users Manual. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, Tucson: University of Arizona, 1994.
[52]	Cook E R.A time series analysis approach to tree ring standardization. Tucson: University of Arizona, 1985.
[53]	Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A.Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1990. doi: 10.2307/1551446
[54]	李颖俊, 王尚义, 牛俊杰, 等.芦芽山华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii)树轮宽度年表对气候因子的响应. 生态学报. 2016, 36(6): 1608-1618.
	[Li YingJun, Wang Shangyi, Niu Junjie, et al. Climate-adial growth relationship of Larix principis-rupprechtii at different. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2016, 36(6): 1608-1618.]
[55]	Walpol R E, Myers R H, Myers S L, et al.Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. New York: Macmillan Pubishing Company, 1985.
[56]	Duibin J, Watson G S.Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression. Biometrika, 1950, 37(3-4): 409-428. doi: 10.1007/978-1-4612-4380-9_21 pmid: 14801065
[57]	Torrence C, Compo G P.A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(1): 61-78.
[58]	史江峰, 刘禹, 蔡秋芳, 等.贺兰山过去196年降水的树轮宽度重建及降水变率. 海洋地质与第四纪地质. 2007, 27(1): 95-99.
	[Shi Jiangfeng, Liu Yu, Cai Qiufang, et al.Tree ring width in the Helan Mountains of north China and the precipitattion variability. Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 2007, 27(1): 95-99.]
[59]	Morlet G A, Fourgeau I, Giard D.Wave propagation and sampling theory. Geophysics, 1982, 47: 203-236.
[60]	刘洪斌, 邵雪梅, 黄磊. 中国陕西关中及周边地区近500年来初夏干燥指数序列的重建. 第四纪研究, 2002, 22(3): 220-229. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2002.03.004
	[Liu Hongbin, Shao Xuemei, Huang Lei.Reconstruction of early-summer drought indices in mid-north of China after 1500 using tree ring chronologies. Quaternary Sciences, 2002, 22(3): 220-229.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1001-7410.2002.03.004
[61]	郑景云, 刘洋, 葛全胜, 等. 华中地区历史物候记录与1850-2008年的气温变化重建. 地理学报, 2015, 70(5): 696-704. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201505002
	[Zheng Jingyun, Liu Yang, Ge Quansheng, et al.Spring phenofate records derived from historical documents and reconstrution on temperature change in Central China during 1850-2008. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(5): 696-704.] doi: 10.11821/dlxb201505002
[62]	李金建, 邵雪梅, 李媛媛, 等. 1854-2010年川西高原北部初夏气温变化与全球海表温度关系初探. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(4): 1024-1035. doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00178
	[Li Jinjian, Shao Xuemei, Li Yuanyuan, et al.The relationship between early summer air temperature and the global sea surface temperature in the north of western Sichuan Plateau from 1854 to 2010. Journal of Desert Research, 2015, 35(4): 1024-1035.] doi: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-694X.2014.00178
[63]	唐国利, 任国玉. 近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析. 气候与环境研究, 2005, 10(4): 791-798. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.010
	[Tang Guoli, Ren Guoyu.Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100 years over China. Climatic and Environmental Research, 2005, 10(4): 791-798.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.04.010
[64]	王绍武, 叶瑾琳, 龚道溢, 等. 近百年中国年气温序列的建立. 应用气象学报, 1998, 9(4): 392-401.
	[Wang Shaowu, Ye Jinlin, Gong Daoyi, et al.Construction of mean annual temperature series for the last one hundred years in China. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 1998, 9(4): 392-401.]
[65]	莫申国, 张百平. 基于DEM的秦岭温度场模拟. 山地学报, 2007, 25(4): 406-411. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2007.04.004
	[Mo Shenguo, Zhang Baiping.Simulation of temperature fields based on DEM in Qinling Mts. Journal of Mountain Science, 2007, 25(4): 406-411.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-2786.2007.04.004
[66]	白红英, 马新萍, 高翔, 等. 基于DEM的秦岭山地1月气温及0 ℃等温线变化. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1443-1450.
	[Bai Hongying, Ma Xinping, Gao Xiang, et al.Variations in January and 0 ℃ isothermal curve in Qinling Mountains based on DEM. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1443-1450.]
[67]	翟丹平, 白红英, 秦进, 等. 秦岭太白山气温直减率时空差异性研究. 地理学报, 2016, 71(9): 1587-1595.
	[Zhai Danping, Bai Hongying, Qin Jin, et al.Temporal and spatial variability of air temperature lapserates in Mt. Taibai, central Qinling Mountains. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(9): 1587-1595.]

	年份	北坡(℃)	南坡(℃)
重建时期	1835-1869（冷期）	-0.0034	0.0023
	1874-1886（暖期）	0.0148	0.0202
	1887-1917（暖期）	0.003	-0.0028
	1918-1925（冷期）	-0.0198	-0.0003
	1926-1959（暖期）	0.0142	0.0055
	1960-1998（冷期）	0.0077	0.0012
	1999-2013（暖期）	0.027	0.0363
器测时期	1959-1998	0.0092	0.0042
器测时期	1999-2013	-0.017	-0.0224

年份	秦岭气温（℃）	北坡气温（℃）	南坡气温（℃）
1835-1869（冷期）	-7.42~11.40	-7.42~9.22（16.64）	-6.12~11.40（17.52）
1874-1886（冷期）	-7.34~11.34	-7.34~9.18（16.52）	-6.03~11.34（17.37）
1887-1917（暖期）	-6.80~12.00	-6.80~9.30（16.1）	-5.55~12.00（17.55）
1918-1925（冷期）	-7.15~11.68	-7.15~8.95（16.1）	-5.87~11.68（17.55）
1926-1959（暖期）	-6.78~12.04	-6.78~9.31（16.07）	-5.53~12.04（17.57）
1960-1998（冷期）	-7.46~11.30	-7.46~9.11（16.57）	-6.15~11.30（17.45）
1999-2013（暖期）	-6.53~12.00	-6.53~9.50（16.03）	-5.27~12.00（17.27）