地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (8): 1515-1530.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201708010

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

渤海海峡跨海通道建设对环渤海地区经济重心的影响——基于物流GDP增加值测算

王泽东1(), 孙海燕1(), 孙峰华2, 秦伟山1   

  1. 1. 鲁东大学资源与环境工程学院,烟台 264025
    2. 鲁东大学环渤海发展研究中心,烟台 264025
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-21 修回日期:2017-06-19 出版日期:2017-08-10 发布日期:2017-09-04
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王泽东(1992- ),男,山东胶州人,硕士,研究方向为区域发展与产业规划。E-mail: wzdong1019@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41171096,41501129);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(15YJA790053)

Effects of construction of trans-Bohai strait passageway on economic center of gravity in the Bohai Rim

Zedong WANG1(), Haiyan SUN1(), Fenghua SUN2, Weishan QIN1   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China
    2. Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China
  • Received:2017-03-21 Revised:2017-06-19 Online:2017-08-10 Published:2017-09-04

摘要:

将渤海海峡跨海通道与环渤海地区经济重心相关联,引入时间序列预测方法、重心理论模型及修正引力模型,收集中国经行渤海通道的省际物流交流量数据以及环渤海地区89座城市1990-2014年的GDP数据并加以预测,根据物流交流总量、时间节省成本测算89座城市的物流GDP增加值作为渤海通道建设的直接经济效益,在此基础上对未来环渤海地区的经济重心变化进行分析。结论如下:① 渤海通道建成前,环渤海地区经济重心的运动方向总体为“西南→西北”,且随时间变化,移动距离、变化速率均在减缓,但区域失衡持续存在。② 渤海通道建成后,结合对有无渤海通道影响的假定分析发现,环渤海地区内部的经济平衡性不断改善,经济重心延续向西北方向移动的趋势但出现小幅滞后,表明仅考虑物流经济,通道建设暂时不会对环渤海地区经济重心变动方向产生根本影响。进一步测度城市间物流经济联系强度发现,受距离衰减规律作用,环渤海地区经济重心向几何重心的移动速率有所减缓。③ 影响经济重心变化逐渐放缓的主要因素为城市经济总量和物流运输的时空压缩效益。④ 引入“力的合成与分解”理论分析重心平移变化机理及演进过程,预测指出未来环渤海地区经济重心向东北方向移动的趋势要受到渤海通道综合空间经济效应的影响,其对东北地区经济复苏与振兴将产生一定的积极作用。

关键词: 渤海海峡跨海通道, 经济重心, 物流GDP增加值, 物流经济联系强度, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

In this paper, the trans-Bohai strait passageway is associated with economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim. Then, method of time series prediction, theoretical model of center of gravity and revised gravity model are introduced, data of quantity of inter-provincial logistics via trans-Bohai strait passageway and GDP data of 1990-2014 in 89 cities in the Bohai Rim are collected and predicted, and value added in logistics GDP in 89 cities is calculated based on total quantity of logistics, time and cost saved as direct economic benefit of construction of this passageway. Based on this, changes of economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim in the future are analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) before the trans-Bohai strait passageway is built, the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim moves overall in a direction from southwest to northwest and both its distance of movement and rate of change are slowing down in a time-varying way but regional imbalance exists; (2) after the passageway is completed in construction, it is found in combination with hypothetical analysis on whether it makes any difference that the economic balance of the Bohai Rim is constantly improved and the trend of movement of economic center of gravity towards the northwest slightly lags behind, indicating that in view of logistics economy only, the construction of the passageway will not have a fundamental impact on the change of the direction of the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim. It is found in further measurement of inter-city logistics economic relation intensity that the moving rate of economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim towards the geometric center of gravity slightly slows down due to law of range attenuation; (3) main factors influencing the change of economic center of gravity include urban economic aggregation and benefit of time-space compression in logistics transportation; (4) the theory of "force resultant and resolution" is introduced to analyze the mechanism and evolution process of translation of center of gravity and predict and indicate that the trend of movement towards the northeast of the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim will be influenced by comprehensive spatial economic effect of the trans-Bohai strait passageway in the future, which will have some positive effects on economic recovery and revitalization of Northeast China.

Key words: trans-Bohai strait passageway, economic center of gravity, added value of logistics GDP, logistics economic relation intensity, Bohai Rim