渤海海峡跨海通道建设对环渤海地区经济重心的影响——基于物流GDP增加值测算

doi:10.11821/dlyj201708010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将渤海海峡跨海通道与环渤海地区经济重心相关联,引入时间序列预测方法、重心理论模型及修正引力模型,收集中国经行渤海通道的省际物流交流量数据以及环渤海地区89座城市1990-2014年的GDP数据并加以预测,根据物流交流总量、时间节省成本测算89座城市的物流GDP增加值作为渤海通道建设的直接经济效益,在此基础上对未来环渤海地区的经济重心变化进行分析。结论如下：① 渤海通道建成前,环渤海地区经济重心的运动方向总体为“西南→西北”,且随时间变化,移动距离、变化速率均在减缓,但区域失衡持续存在。② 渤海通道建成后,结合对有无渤海通道影响的假定分析发现,环渤海地区内部的经济平衡性不断改善,经济重心延续向西北方向移动的趋势但出现小幅滞后,表明仅考虑物流经济,通道建设暂时不会对环渤海地区经济重心变动方向产生根本影响。进一步测度城市间物流经济联系强度发现,受距离衰减规律作用,环渤海地区经济重心向几何重心的移动速率有所减缓。③ 影响经济重心变化逐渐放缓的主要因素为城市经济总量和物流运输的时空压缩效益。④ 引入“力的合成与分解”理论分析重心平移变化机理及演进过程,预测指出未来环渤海地区经济重心向东北方向移动的趋势要受到渤海通道综合空间经济效应的影响,其对东北地区经济复苏与振兴将产生一定的积极作用。

关键词: 渤海海峡跨海通道, 经济重心, 物流GDP增加值, 物流经济联系强度, 环渤海地区

Abstract:

In this paper, the trans-Bohai strait passageway is associated with economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim. Then, method of time series prediction, theoretical model of center of gravity and revised gravity model are introduced, data of quantity of inter-provincial logistics via trans-Bohai strait passageway and GDP data of 1990-2014 in 89 cities in the Bohai Rim are collected and predicted, and value added in logistics GDP in 89 cities is calculated based on total quantity of logistics, time and cost saved as direct economic benefit of construction of this passageway. Based on this, changes of economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim in the future are analyzed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) before the trans-Bohai strait passageway is built, the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim moves overall in a direction from southwest to northwest and both its distance of movement and rate of change are slowing down in a time-varying way but regional imbalance exists; (2) after the passageway is completed in construction, it is found in combination with hypothetical analysis on whether it makes any difference that the economic balance of the Bohai Rim is constantly improved and the trend of movement of economic center of gravity towards the northwest slightly lags behind, indicating that in view of logistics economy only, the construction of the passageway will not have a fundamental impact on the change of the direction of the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim. It is found in further measurement of inter-city logistics economic relation intensity that the moving rate of economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim towards the geometric center of gravity slightly slows down due to law of range attenuation; (3) main factors influencing the change of economic center of gravity include urban economic aggregation and benefit of time-space compression in logistics transportation; (4) the theory of "force resultant and resolution" is introduced to analyze the mechanism and evolution process of translation of center of gravity and predict and indicate that the trend of movement towards the northeast of the economic center of gravity of the Bohai Rim will be influenced by comprehensive spatial economic effect of the trans-Bohai strait passageway in the future, which will have some positive effects on economic recovery and revitalization of Northeast China.

Key words: trans-Bohai strait passageway, economic center of gravity, added value of logistics GDP, logistics economic relation intensity, Bohai Rim

王泽东, 孙海燕, 孙峰华, 秦伟山. 渤海海峡跨海通道建设对环渤海地区经济重心的影响——基于物流GDP增加值测算[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1515-1530.

Zedong WANG, Haiyan SUN, Fenghua SUN, Weishan QIN. Effects of construction of trans-Bohai strait passageway on economic center of gravity in the Bohai Rim[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(8): 1515-1530.

图/表 11

图1

表1

图2

表2

表3

东北城市与其他省市经行渤海通道的物流交流量及GDP增加值预测（大连→烟台）"

	2040年				2045年				2050年
	物流交流量(万t)			GDP增加值(万元)		物流交流量(万t)		GDP增加值(万元)	物流交流量(万t)		GDP增加值(万元)
	公路			铁路			公路	GDP增加值(万元)	铁路	公路	铁路
黑龙江省	1413.3	1149.9	30835.9		1582.9	1199.1	34108.7		1752.3	1247.9	37376.2
哈尔滨市	371.7	108.4	7457.8		416.3	113.1	8316.7		460.9	117.7	9174.4
齐齐哈尔市	223.9	99.0	3675.6		250.8	103.2	4093.8		277.6	107.4	4511.4
鸡西市	104.4	205.2	2316.9		116.9	214.0	2568.9		129.4	222.7	2820.5
鹤岗市	77.8	116.1	2284.3		87.2	121.0	2495.8		96.5	126.0	2706.7
双鸭山市	82.3	89.2	2167.7		92.2	93.0	2381.6		102.1	96.8	2595.2
大庆市	102.0	102.7	1803.0		114.2	107.1	1999.1		126.5	111.5	2194.9
伊春市	22.5	45.0	790.0		25.2	46.9	856.2		27.9	48.8	922.2
佳木斯市	90.9	38.2	1987.2		101.8	39.8	2210.6		112.7	41.4	2433.8
七台河市	110.5	132.5	3311.1		123.8	138.2	3614.0		137.0	143.8	3916.2
牡丹江市	99.1	137.0	2341.9		111.0	142.9	2577.3		122.8	148.7	2812.3
黑河市	37.7	23.6	698.4		42.2	24.6	782.2		46.8	25.6	865.9
绥化市	73.1	22.2	1549.3		81.8	23.2	1720.1		90.6	24.1	1890.6
大兴安岭地区	17.5	30.8	452.7		19.6	32.1	492.4		21.7	33.5	532.1
吉林省	1316.9	536.0	50407.1		1474.9	559.0	54764.1		1632.8	581.7	59109.7
长春市	455.3	82.3	11433.1		510.0	85.9	12577.3		564.5	89.3	13719.4
吉林市	173.9	153.2	8785.4		194.8	159.7	9419.1		215.6	166.2	10050.5
四平市	139.1	34.9	4131.8		155.7	36.4	4517.3		172.4	37.8	4902.0
辽源市	59.3	21.5	1468.8		66.4	22.4	1618.0		73.5	23.3	1766.9
通化市	131.5	85.3	7482.8		147.3	89.0	8145.9		163.0	92.6	8807.3
白山市	82.1	58.2	8762.0		92.0	60.7	9351.1		101.8	63.2	9937.8
松原市	85.0	15.2	1713.3		95.2	15.8	1882.4		105.4	16.5	2051.2
白城市	31.4	29.0	839.8		35.2	30.3	906.4		39.0	31.5	972.8
延边朝鲜族自治州	159.4	56.5	5790.1		178.5	58.9	6346.6		197.6	61.3	6902.0
辽宁省	4394.8	1283.0	214106.1		4922.2	1337.9	238257		5449.0	1392.4	262375.2
沈阳市	820.2	45.1	15574.6		918.7	47.0	17427.0		1017.0	48.9	19277.1
大连市	882.5	185.0	131627.3		988.3	192.9	146468		1094.1	200.7	161288.3
鞍山市	443.6	131.3	17350.2		496.9	136.9	19192.2		550.0	142.5	21031.1
抚顺市	177.1	132.5	4156.4		198.4	138.1	4600.8		219.6	143.8	5044.4
本溪市	259.7	200.3	7993.1		290.9	208.9	8864.6		322.0	217.4	9734.7
丹东市	164.5	30.0	10870.6		184.2	31.2	12157.8		204.0	32.5	13443.4
锦州市	289.1	48.3	1043.0		323.7	50.4	1166.5		358.4	52.4	1289.8
营口市	227.3	86.7	9238.6		254.6	90.5	10281.9		281.8	94.1	11323.8
阜新市	171.9	94.4	1593.1		192.5	98.4	1781.8		213.1	102.4	1970.2
辽阳市	202.5	79.1	6047.6		226.8	82.5	6721.0		251.0	85.9	7393.3
盘锦市	199.0	21.9	3720.3		222.9	22.8	4164.5		246.7	23.7	4608.2
铁岭市	189.9	109.5	4157.6		212.7	114.1	4611.9		235.5	118.8	5065.6
朝阳市	162.3	50.3	526.7		181.8	52.4	589.3		201.2	54.5	651.7
葫芦岛市	205.4	68.8	206.9		230.0	71.7	230.3		254.6	74.6	253.7

表3

表4

图3

表5

表6

图4

图5

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	2040年				2045年				2050年
	物流交流量(万t)			GDP增加值(万元)		物流交流量(万t)		GDP增加值(万元)	物流交流量(万t)		GDP增加值(万元)
	公路			铁路			公路	GDP增加值(万元)	铁路	公路	铁路
山东省	2571.0	536.0	129467.0		2829.0	590.0	142465.8		3087.0	644.0	155463.9
济南市	230.1	149.8	1296.9		253.2	164.9	1427.3		276.2	180.0	1557.6
青岛市	460.1	123.4	51225.9		506.3	135.8	56369.6		552.5	148.3	61513.3
淄博市	157.5	41.0	2223.2		173.3	45.1	2446.7		189.2	49.3	2670.2
枣庄市	142.9	29.6	2123.3		157.3	32.6	2336.5		171.6	35.5	2549.7
东营市	138.2	3.4	943.6		152.0	3.7	1038.3		165.9	4.1	1133.0
烟台市	213.9	17.4	36328.1		235.3	19.2	39974.3		256.8	21.0	43620.5
潍坊市	239.7	16.4	12481.1		263.8	18.0	13733.8		287.9	19.7	14986.6
济宁市	268.4	45.2	311.8		295.3	49.8	343.2		322.2	54.3	374.6
泰安市	125.1	37.8	112.6		137.7	41.6	123.9		150.3	45.4	135.2
威海市	65.4	3.5	10820.8		71.9	3.8	11906.8		78.5	4.2	12992.8
日照市	55.1	41.7	6210.2		60.6	45.9	6834.1		66.1	50.1	7458.0
莱芜市	37.7	8.0	14.5		41.5	8.8	16.0		45.3	9.6	17.4
临沂市	145.8	11.1	5374.0		160.5	12.2	5913.4		175.1	13.3	6452.9
德州市	73.6	5.1	0.0		81.0	5.7	0.0		88.4	6.2	0.0
聊城市	52.7	1.6	0.0		57.9	1.8	0.0		63.2	1.9	0.0
滨州市	65.0	1.0	1.2		71.5	1.1	2.0		78.0	1.2	2.2
菏泽市	99.9	0.0	0.0		109.9	0.0	0.0		119.9	0.0	0.0

	年份	东经(°E)	北纬(°N)	移动方向	移动距离(km)	距离几何重心距离(km)
几何重心	-	118.3082	42.7597	-	-	-
经济重心	1990	119.65494	39.98044	-	-	317.18
	1995	119.28470	39.70447	西南	42.67	337.02
	2000	119.26566	39.768641	西北	7.08	329.94
	2005	118.78397	39.48639	西南	50.24	353.18
	2010	118.76317	39.62353	西北	14.85	338.34
	2015	118.57774	39.49443	西南	20.76	350.89
	2020	118.55692	39.51533	西北	2.84	348.54
	2025	118.53559	39.51539	西北	1.78	348.43
	2030	118.52121	39.51589	西北	1.20	348.33
	2035	118.51094	39.51653	西北	0.86	348.22
	2040	118.50344	39.51719	西北	0.63	348.12
	2045	118.49750	39.51782	西北	0.50	348.02
	2050	118.49277	39.51840	西北	0.40	347.95

时段	北京	天津	河北	黑龙江	吉林	辽宁	内蒙古	山东	山西
1990-1995	24.77	24.88	44.67	23.44	25.14	22.28	22.83	27.17	21.87
1996-2000	15.98	12.88	14.03	14.99	13.20	9.03	13.14	11.91	8.32
2001-2005	17.14	18.18	13.99	9.72	12.59	14.36	24.04	17.45	20.67
2006-2010	15.23	18.89	15.08	16.26	21.20	19.05	25.74	16.11	16.71
2011-2014	10.90	14.38	9.46	7.66	10.33	8.86	8.85	10.31	9.52

	年份	东经(°E)	北纬(°N)	移动方向	移动距离(km)	距离几何重心距离(km)
有渤海通道影响时	2040	118.50344	39.51719	西北	0.64	348.12
	2045	118.49750	39.51782	西北	0.50	348.02
	2050	118.49277	39.51840	西北	0.40	347.95
假定无渤海通道影响时	2040	118.50328	39.51718	西北	0.65	348.12
	2045	118.49736	39.51781	西北	0.50	348.03
	2050	118.49267	39.51839	西北	0.40	347.94