多维邻近性对中国出口产品空间演化的影响

doi:10.11821/dlyj201709002

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

出口产品空间的演化影响地区的生产贸易与经济增长。产品空间比较优势理论认为地区已有产品能否跳跃至新产品与产品间的“邻近性”有关。从演化经济地理视角出发,建立认知邻近、社会邻近、制度邻近、组织邻近和地理邻近的多维邻近性研究框架,基于吴语区2002-2011年出口贸易数据,探究五类邻近性对产品空间演化的影响,并关注邻近性之间的交互作用。结果显示：认知邻近性、组织邻近性、制度邻近性、社会邻近性与地理邻近性均对出口产品空间演化有显著的促进作用,但各邻近性的影响能力存在差异。同时还发现社会邻近性与地理邻近性,以及地理邻近性与制度邻近性之间存在互补作用。研究可为位于产品空间“边缘区”的落后地区提供产业发展的新路径。

关键词: 出口产品空间, 多维邻近性, 路径依赖, 路径突破, 知识溢出, 中国

Abstract:

The evolution of export product space affects regional production and trade as well as economic growth. According to the theory of comparative advantage evolution, whether regional product can jump to the new products is related to the "proximity" among them. From the perspective of evolutionary economic geography, this study builds up a multi-proximity framework of cognitive proximity, social proximity, institutional proximity, organizational proximity and geographic proximity. Based on the export data of Wu Dialect Area from 2002 to 2011, we explore the impact of the five proximities on the evolution of export product space. The interaction among the proximities also receives attention. The results show that all of the five proximities positively promote the evolution of export product space, but with different effects. In addition, complementary effects are also found between social and geographical proximity, and between geographical and institutional proximity. This article attempts to provide a new path of the productive structure transition for backward areas on the fringes of the product space.

Key words: export product space, multi-proximity, path dependence, path creation, knowledge spillover, China

贺灿飞, 金璐璐, 刘颖. 多维邻近性对中国出口产品空间演化的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(9): 1613-1626.

Canfei HE, Lulu JIN, Ying LIU. How does multi-proximity affect the evolution of export product space in China?[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2017, 36(9): 1613-1626.

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产值排名	名称	HS码	区位商排名	名称	HS码
1	电机、电气设备及其零件	85	1	化学纤维长丝	54
2	机械器具、机器零件	84	2	特种机制物	58
3	针织或钩编的服装	61	3	动物细毛或粗毛	51
4	非针织或非钩编的服装	62	4	光学、照相、电影设备	90
5	光学、照相、电影设备	90	5	木浆及其它纤维状纤维素浆	47
6	家具	94	6	浸渍、涂布、包覆或压层的织物	59
7	钢铁制品	73	7	化学纤维短丝	55
8	车辆机器零件	87	8	鞣料浸膏及染料浸膏	32
9	塑料及其制品	39	9	杂项制品	96
10	有机化学品	29	10	蚕丝	50

因素	变量	定义	年份
新产品产生	Y	产品出口区位商是否从小于0.5变成大于1（0、1变量）	2002-2011
认知邻近性	Cog	该地区的技术关联的产品密度	2002-2011
组织邻近性	Org_cz	与该地区有组织联系的企业的该产品总产值	2002-2011
制度邻近性	inst_cz	与该地区相同省份地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
	inst_lq	与该地区相同省份地区的平均该产品区位商	2002-2011
社会邻近性	Soc_cz	与该地区语言片相同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
	Soc_lq	与该地区语言片相同的地区的平均该产品区位商	2002-2011
	Soc2_cz	与该地区语言小片相同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
地理邻近性	Geo_cz	与该地区地理相邻的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
	Geo_lq	与该地区地理相邻的地区的平均该产品区位商	2002-2011
	LQ	该地区该产品的区位商	2002-2011
控制变量	Hslb	Hs码类别
	Year	年份

	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
Cog	3.7000^***	3.5510^***	3.7940^***	3.7090^***
Soc_cz	0.0355^***		0.0437^***	0.0351^***
Soc_lq		0.0330^***	-0.150^***
Soc2_cz				0.0007
Geo_cz	0.0182^***		0.0177^***	0.0177^***
Geo_lq		0.0300^**	-0.0167
inst_cz	0.0078^***		0.0130^***	0.0080^***
inst_lq		-0.0451^***	-0.0423^***
Org_cz	0.0331^***	0.0628^***	0.0299^***	0.0332^***
LQ	0.7080^***	1.3150^***	0.6070^***	0.7060^***
Hslb	included	included	included	included
Year	included	included	included	included
_cons	-1.2050^***	-1.0290^***	-1.1790^***	-1.2050^***
N	48369	48369	48369	48369
LR chi2	15581.47	14205.37	15830.59	15581.65
Log likelihood	-25647.969	-26336.019	-25523.407	-25647.88

因素	变量	定义	年份
社会、地理均相邻	gy_sy_cz	与该地区地理、社会均相邻的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
地理相邻社会不相邻	gy_sn_cz	与该地区地理相邻社会不相邻的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
社会相邻地理不相邻	gn_sy_cz	与该地区社会相邻地理不相邻的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
社会、制度均相邻	sy_py_cz	与该地区语言、省份均相同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
社会相邻制度不相邻	sy_pn_cz	与该地区语言相同、省份不同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
地理、制度均相邻	gy_py_cz	与该地区地理相邻、省份均相同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011
地理相邻制度不相邻	gy_pn_cz	与该地区地理相邻、省份不同的地区的平均该产品总产值	2002-2011

	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4
Cog	3.7770^***	4.1400^***	3.9800^***	3.9510^***
gy_sy_cz	0.0234^***
gy_sn_cz	0.0084^***
gn_sy_cz	0.0183^***
lnst_cz	0.0128^***
sy_py_cz		0.0045^***		-0.0075^***
sy_pn_cz			0.0102^***	0.0147^***
gy_py_cz		0.0284^***	0.0274^***	0.0301^***
gy_pn_cz		0.0139^***	0.0130^***	0.0132^***
Org_cz	0.0350^***	0.0494^***	0.0486^***	0.0482^***
LQ	0.5680^***	0.9870^***	0.9670^***	0.9740^***
Hslb	included	included	included	included
Year	included	included	included	included
_cons	-1.1370^***	-1.2060^***	-1.2060^***	-1.2100^***
N	48369	145896	145896	145896
LR chi2	15476.99	50053.89	50305.24	50364.44
Log likelihood	-25700.2	-75435.8	-75310.1	-75280.5