地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (9): 1773-1786.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201709013

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

煤炭资源枯竭型城市工矿用地时空变化模拟与生态风险评价——以江西省萍乡市安源区为例

夏敏1(), 张开亮1, 文博1, 刘友兆1, 潘运华2   

  1. 1. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京 210095
    2. 萍乡学院,萍乡 337055
  • 收稿日期:2017-03-14 修回日期:2017-07-25 出版日期:2017-09-15 发布日期:2017-12-12
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:夏敏(1971- ),女,江苏南京人,副教授,研究方向为土地利用与规划、土地信息技术等。E-mail: xm@njau.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(16YJAZH064);江西省软科学研究计划重大项目(20161ACA10001)

On simulation of changes in industrial land use and evaluation of ecological risks in a coal resource-exhausted city: A case study of Anyuan district, Pingxiang city

Min XIA1(), Kailiang ZHANG1, Bo WEN1, Youzhao LIU1, Yunhua PAN2   

  1. 1. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China
    2. Pingxiang University, Pingxiang 337055, Jiangxi, China
  • Received:2017-03-14 Revised:2017-07-25 Online:2017-09-15 Published:2017-12-12

摘要:

分析和预测煤炭资源枯竭型城市工矿用地时空变化,可以为该类型城市产业转型和可持续发展提供决策支持。以江西省萍乡市安源区为例,基于SD模型和CLUE-S模型构建土地利用变化模拟模型,以工矿用地逐步消亡为背景,模拟多情景下研究区2018年和2023年土地利用格局,分析工矿用地变化过程,并基于PSR框架建立指标体系评价工矿用地变化生态风险。结果表明:① 在低速发展、均衡发展和高速发展3种情景模式下,2013-2018年工矿用地分别减少234.64 hm2、270.48 hm2及311.13 hm2,2018-2023年工矿用地分别减少223.66 hm2、187.82 hm2及147.17 hm2,两个阶段不同模式下工矿用地变化趋势一致;② 2003-2018年工矿用地变化生态风险呈现加剧的趋势,3种发展模式下,2018年工矿用地变化的生态风险依次提高,2023年则依次减小,这与研究区工矿废弃地的增加速度,转型发展不同时期工矿废弃地的治理能力以及生态环境的改善水平有关;③ 设定3种情景模式,基于SD模型和CLUE-S模型进行土地利用变化模拟,结果能够较好地反映研究区在转型发展过程中不同状态下的土地利用变化特征,可为当地政府设置工矿废弃地治理目标提供参考。

关键词: 煤炭资源枯竭型城市, 工矿用地, 时空变化模拟, 生态风险评价, 萍乡市安源区

Abstract:

A coal resource-exhausted city is a special type of city whose urban industrial economy has relied on coal resource-based industrial land for a long time. Analysis and prediction of spatial and temporal changes of industrial land in the city can provide decision support for its industrial transformation and sustainable development. Anyuan district, Pingxiang city, located in Jiangxi province in China, is a typical coal resource-exhausted city. Taking this district as an example, a land use change simulation model was built based on SD and CLUE-S model, in which the SD model is used to simulate the amount of change in land use. Then CLUE-S model simulates the changes in the space. Against a background of industrial land exhaustion, land use patterns in 2018 and 2023 after slow, moderate, and rapid development scenarios were simulated. Changes in inindustrial land were analyzed by extracting data from land use patterns. Then the ecological risks of industrial land changes were evaluated using the PSR model. Results showed the following: (1) In the slow, moderate, and rapid development scenarios, the total area of industrial land decreased by 234.64 hm2, 270.48 hm2 and 311.13 hm2 respectively during the period 2013-2018, and 223.66 hm2, 187.82 hm2 and 147.17 hm2 during the period 2018-2023. The trends of changes in industrial land remained similar during these two periods. (2) Ecological risk of changes in industrial land presented a worsening trend from 2003 to 2018. In this slow, moderate, and rapid development scenarios, ecological risk was still projected to become higher and higher into 2018, but not into 2023. All these trends were attributed to the increased rate of abandonment ofindustrial land, increased ability of land consolidation, and the level improvement in the ecological environment improvement. (3) By establishing slow, moderate, and rapid development scenarios, and simulating changes in land use based on SD and CLUE-S models, this paper presents the characteristics of land use changes under different industrial transformation scenarios. The results may provide reference data for local governments to establish consolidation goals for abandoned industrial land.

Key words: coal resources-exhausted city, industrial land use, simulation of spatial and temporal change, evaluation of ecological risk, Anyuan district, Pingxiang city