地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (11): 2171-2183.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201711011

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

2000-2015年华北平原土地利用变化对粮食生产效率的影响

杨勇1,2(), 邓祥征2, 李志慧2, 吴锋2, 李小云2   

  1. 1. 河南财经政法大学资源与环境学院,郑州 450046
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-10 修回日期:2017-09-12 出版日期:2017-11-20 发布日期:2017-12-21
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:杨勇(1982- ),男,湖南衡南人,博士,讲师,主要从事GIS与资源评价研究。E-mail:yayo2004@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家杰出青年科学基金项目(71225005)

Impact of land use change on grain production efficiency in North China Plain during 2000-2015

Yong YANG1,2(), Xiangzheng DENG2, Zhihui LI2, Feng WU2, Xiaoyun LI2   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment science, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, China
    2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2017-05-10 Revised:2017-09-12 Online:2017-11-20 Published:2017-12-21

摘要:

基于2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年四期统计数据,采用随机前沿生产函数对华北平原县域粮食生产效率进行测算,并采用Tobit回归模型分析土地利用变化对粮食生产效率的外部作用影响机理。结果表明:华北平原四期粮食生产效率均值分别为0.7544、0.7730、0.7525和0.7518,高于0.8的县区数占比较高,但大部分县区的效率还存在一定提升空间,效率值空间分布从最初的相对均匀到局部集聚;增加投入要素对提高粮食生产效率仍具有促进作用,其中粮食播种面积和农业机械总动力两个投入指标的作用较强;从土地利用变化对粮食生产效率的影响分析看,土地利用多样性指数、耕地斑块密度、土地利用程度指数对粮食生产效率的提升具有负向作用,而提高耕地复种具有显著的正向作用。

关键词: 粮食生产效率, 影响因素, 随机前沿生产函数, 土地利用变化, 华北平原

Abstract:

Improving grain production efficiency is an important way to relieve the pressure from cultivated land loss and to ensure grain security. In this paper, we assessed the county-level grain production efficiency with SFA in the North China Plain during 2000-2015. Furthermore, the spatial distribution characteristics of county-level grain production efficiencies were analyzed based on global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, we discussed the impact of land use change on grain production efficiency. The main results are as follows: (1) The proportion of counties with grain production efficiency above 0.8 is relatively high, and the average efficiency in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 0.7544, 0.7730, 0.7525 and 0.7518 respectively, which indicates that there is still some scope for improvement in grain production efficiency; (2) Although the global spatial autocorrelation in county-level efficiency is weak, the local spatial autocorrelation in county-level efficiency shows obvious regional differentiation; (3) The input factors, such as rural population, total power of agricultural machinery, the amount of applied chemical fertilizer, the amount of used pesticides, the rural per capita net income and the sown area of grain, have positive effects on the grain production efficiency, however, rural electricity consumption has negative effects; (4) The land use diversity index, cultivated land proportion, cultivated land patch density, land use degree and multiple cropping index were selected to construct the panel data, based on which, the Tobit regression model estimations reveal the effect of land use change on grain production efficiency. The patch density, land use degree and land use diversity index have significant negative effects on grain production efficiency, while multiple cropping index has a significant positive effect on grain production efficiency. Several feasible suggestions were concluded from this study. First, in order to perfect the farmland circulation and scale operation, it is mecessary to strictly enforce land planning, strengthen the protection of basic farmland, avoid the fragment caused by the extensive expansion of rural settlements and urban built-up land. Second, it is important to maintain a certain quantity of cultivated land to guarantee large scale grain production. Third, the agricultural policy must be adjusted to maintain its vitality for grain production, reinforce farmland infrastructure, and reduce the risk of grain production. Fourth, it is necessary to continue financial, political and scientific supports in regions with a high multiple crop index.

Key words: grain production efficiency, influencing factors, stochastic frontier analysis, land use change, North China Plain