关键词: 粮食生产效率, 影响因素, 随机前沿生产函数, 土地利用变化, 华北平原

Abstract:

Improving grain production efficiency is an important way to relieve the pressure from cultivated land loss and to ensure grain security. In this paper, we assessed the county-level grain production efficiency with SFA in the North China Plain during 2000-2015. Furthermore, the spatial distribution characteristics of county-level grain production efficiencies were analyzed based on global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Finally, we discussed the impact of land use change on grain production efficiency. The main results are as follows: (1) The proportion of counties with grain production efficiency above 0.8 is relatively high, and the average efficiency in 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were 0.7544, 0.7730, 0.7525 and 0.7518 respectively, which indicates that there is still some scope for improvement in grain production efficiency; (2) Although the global spatial autocorrelation in county-level efficiency is weak, the local spatial autocorrelation in county-level efficiency shows obvious regional differentiation; (3) The input factors, such as rural population, total power of agricultural machinery, the amount of applied chemical fertilizer, the amount of used pesticides, the rural per capita net income and the sown area of grain, have positive effects on the grain production efficiency, however, rural electricity consumption has negative effects; (4) The land use diversity index, cultivated land proportion, cultivated land patch density, land use degree and multiple cropping index were selected to construct the panel data, based on which, the Tobit regression model estimations reveal the effect of land use change on grain production efficiency. The patch density, land use degree and land use diversity index have significant negative effects on grain production efficiency, while multiple cropping index has a significant positive effect on grain production efficiency. Several feasible suggestions were concluded from this study. First, in order to perfect the farmland circulation and scale operation, it is mecessary to strictly enforce land planning, strengthen the protection of basic farmland, avoid the fragment caused by the extensive expansion of rural settlements and urban built-up land. Second, it is important to maintain a certain quantity of cultivated land to guarantee large scale grain production. Third, the agricultural policy must be adjusted to maintain its vitality for grain production, reinforce farmland infrastructure, and reduce the risk of grain production. Fourth, it is necessary to continue financial, political and scientific supports in regions with a high multiple crop index.

Key words: grain production efficiency, influencing factors, stochastic frontier analysis, land use change, North China Plain