基于地理探测器的黑龙江垦区农场粮食产量影响因素分析

doi:10.11821/dlyj201801013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国粮食生产格局已由南粮北运转变为北粮南运,东北黑龙江垦区已成为最重要的商品粮基地,稳定该区域的粮食产量、可持续发展该区域粮食种植,对促进农业可持续发展、保证国家粮食安全具有重大的意义。为有针对性地制定农业政策,需研究黑龙江垦区粮食产量影响因素,以黑龙江垦区内113个农场为研究对象,选取23个与农业生产关系最密切的影响因子,利用地理探测器方法分析不同因子对农场粮食产量影响的差异。结果显示：除了播种面积和耕地面积外,农业机械化水平是最显著的影响因子,进一步分析表明大型农机对农场粮食产量影响较大。应进一步加强农业科技、农业机械化投入,鼓励精准农业种植模式发展,以保证黑龙江垦区的粮食可持续生产。

关键词: 粮食产量, 黑龙江垦区, 农业机械化水平, 影响因素, 地理探测器

Abstract:

Heilongjiang reclamation area has become one of the major commodity grain bases in China, in the context of spatial distribution pattern shifted from "grain supply from north to south" to "grain supply from south to north" in the country. Therefore, it is essential to stabilize grain output and make it sustainable in this base so as to ensure Chinese food security, and research on impact factors of grain yield is among the focuses for the agricultural policy. Twenty-three factors, which are most closely related with agricultural production, are selected from 113 farms in the area, and be imported into Geographical Detector to analyze different influences of them on the grain out. These factors include population density, cultivated area, year-end population, employment in primary industry, total investment in agriculture, payment to employed persons, total savings deposit, net per capita income, classified highway, number of home computers, total power of farm machinery, machinery tilled land area each year, machinery sown area each year, effective irrigation area, fertilizer input, electricity used in agriculture, grain storage, the number of grain processing center, the processing speed of grain processing center, crops acreage sown, annual average temperature, annual average precipitation, and hours of sunshine. Results showed that the six most important impact factors were sown area, cultivated area, machinery tilled land area each year, machinery sown area each year, consumption of chemical fertilizers, and total power of farm machinery. As agricultural machinery level played an important role in grain production of farms in the area, influences of 15 different agricultural machines are furtherly analyzed, which indicated that the five most important ones were combined harvesters, complementary mechanization to large and medium agricultural tractors, self-driven combine, large and medium agricultural tractors, and self-driven rice planter. So there is a significant demand for increasing investment in agricultural technological research, and mechanization, and developing precision agriculture in the area.

Key words: grain output, Heilongjiang reclamation area, agricultural mechanization level, impact factors, geographical detector

叶妍君, 齐清文, 姜莉莉, 张岸. 基于地理探测器的黑龙江垦区农场粮食产量影响因素分析[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(1): 171-182.

Yanjun YE, Qingwen QI, Lili JIANG, An ZHANG. Impact factors of grain output from farms in Heilongjiang reclamation area based on geographical detector[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(1): 171-182.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

表1

2014年黑龙江垦区农场粮食产量的23大影响因素的地理探测结果"

因子	粮食总产量			水稻总产量				玉米总产量				大豆总产量
因子	q值		p值	q排序		q值	p值	q排序	q值	p值	q排序	q值	p值	q排序
人口密度	0.19	0.00	21	0.10	0.03	21		0.09	0.07	20		0.10	0.04	13
耕地面积	0.82	0.00	2	0.65	0.00	4		0.26	0.12	7		0.16	0.06	8
年末总人数	0.39	0.02	14	0.21	0.35	15		0.27	0.43	6		0.10	0.77	14
第一产业从业人员	0.34	0.02	16	0.12	0.76	20		0.28	0.24	5		0.26	0.01	4
农林牧渔业总投资	0.36	0.00	15	0.14	0.17	18		0.23	0.27	8		0.16	0.55	7
从业人员劳动报酬	0.48	0.00	11	0.29	0.05	14		0.20	0.62	11		0.14	0.20	10
年末储蓄总额	0.54	0.00	9	0.51	0.00	8		0.15	0.79	16		0.09	0.94	17
人均纯收入	0.17	0.04	22	0.32	0.00	12		0.05	0.47	23		0.14	0.04	11
等级公路	0.47	0.00	12	0.18	0.29	17		0.35	0.01	2		0.15	0.09	9
家用计算机	0.56	0.00	8	0.34	0.00	11		0.22	0.30	9		0.07	0.53	18
农业机械总动力	0.68	0.00	6	0.72	0.00	3		0.09	0.97	19		0.02	0.96	20
当年机耕面积	0.78	0.00	3	0.57	0.00	6		0.15	0.72	15		0.09	0.45	15
当年机播面积	0.77	0.00	4	0.58	0.00	5		0.15	0.76	17		0.09	0.46	16
有效灌溉面积	0.66	0.00	7	0.92	0.00	2		0.12	0.14	18		0.02	0.93	21
化肥施用量	0.71	0.00	5	0.52	0.00	7		0.17	0.62	13		0.06	0.70	19
农业用电量	0.21	0.68	19	0.19	0.45	16		0.07	0.98	22		0.01	0.99	23
粮食仓储能力	0.28	0.16	17	0.30	0.04	13		0.07	0.98	21		0.02	0.98	22
粮食处理中心数量	0.13	0.60	23	0.01	1.00	23		0.29	0.02	4		0.32	0.00	2
粮食处理中心速度	0.21	0.20	20	0.07	0.85	22		0.22	0.02	10		0.26	0.01	3
播种面积	0.82	0.00	1	0.99	0.00	1		0.93	0.00	1		0.92	0.00	1
年均温度	0.25	0.00	18	0.12	0.03	19		0.31	0.00	3		0.18	0.00	6
年降水量	0.46	0.00	13	0.35	0.00	10		0.18	0.00	12		0.13	0.02	12
日照时数	0.53	0.00	10	0.41	0.00	9		0.17	0.00	14		0.19	0.00	5

表1

图4

表2

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