Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 广告合作 联系我们 English
 
最新录用  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  热点文章  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行
地理研究    2018, Vol. 37 Issue (3): 495-511     DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201803004
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
1985-2015年全球贸易网络格局的时空演化及对中国地缘战略的启示
蒋小荣1(),杨永春1,2(),汪胜兰3
1. 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州 730000
2. 兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州 730000
3. 兰州财经大学陇桥学院,兰州 730101
Spatial and temporal patterns of evolution of global trade networks during 1985-2015 and its enlightenment to China's geostrategy
JIANG Xiaorong1(),YANG Yongchun1,2(),WANG Shenglan3
1. College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2. Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
3. Longqiao College of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics, Lanzhou 730101, China
全文: PDF (1311 KB)   HTML
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)     
摘要 

从社会网络视角,采用中心度、社团划分和结构熵等社会网络指标,探究全球贸易网络的空间格局及演化特征,重点分析中国在网络中的社团归属及其地缘战略启示。研究表明:随着时间推移,发展中国家的群体性崛起使得全球贸易网络结构呈现日益多元化的复杂格局;全球贸易网络的社团演化经历了发达国家主导、亚洲崛起的萌芽、亚洲社团的分离和“三足鼎立”四个阶段,中国从被支配的边缘地位逐步走向“舞台中央”;中、美、德三国在全球市场细分过程中形成一种“错位竞争”关系,亚太、中东、非洲和拉美地区成为大国之间争夺贸易市场的博弈区域。中国应首先立足于亚太地区,通过“一带一路”倡议延伸至中东、非洲和拉美地区,将经济优势转化为全球战略影响力。

服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
蒋小荣
杨永春
汪胜兰
关键词 全球贸易网络社团市场多元化地缘战略中国 
Abstract

The paper, from the perspective of social network, explores the spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of the global trade network and focuses on the Chinese community ownership and their strategic implications by adopting social network indexes, including centrality, community classification and structure entropy. The results show that: (1) The structure of global trade network evolved towards complexity, specifically shifted from "one super state and more powerful countries" towards"multi-polarization". The collective rise of developing countries has weakened the monopoly position of traditional European and American countries in the network, leading to increasing complexity of the network structure. (2) Community evolution of the global trade network has experienced the dominant stage of the developed countries, the budding stage of the Asian region, the separated stage of the Asian Community and the fourth stages of "ripartite confrontation". During the evolution, China has gradually moved from being dominated to the center of the stage. (3) The diversification of trade market is a common characteristic of foreign trade countries. In the process of global market segmentation, China, the United States, and Germany gradually formed a relationship of "dislocation competition", and their core interests are concentrated around the surrounding areas. (4) The areas of Asia-Pacific Region, Middle East, Africa and Latin America have become the play field of China to compete other powers for local trade markets. Currently, the Asia-Pacific market is the preferred market for China's global trade, and China should extend the market to the Middle East, Africa and Latin America through "Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road", In this way, economic advantage can be transformed into global strategic influence. Meanwhile, direct conflicts and confrontations with the core interests of the United States should be avoided.

Key wordsglobal trade networks    community    market diversification    geostrategy    China
收稿日期: 2017-11-17      出版日期: 2018-04-25
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41571155)
引用本文:   
蒋小荣, 杨永春, 汪胜兰 . 1985-2015年全球贸易网络格局的时空演化及对中国地缘战略的启示[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(3): 495-511.
JIANG Xiaorong, YANG Yongchun, WANG Shenglan . Spatial and temporal patterns of evolution of global trade networks during 1985-2015 and its enlightenment to China's geostrategy[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(3): 495-511.
链接本文:  
http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/10.11821/dlyj201803004      或      http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I3/495
Fig. 1  1985-2015年全球贸易网络联系分布图
Fig. 2  1985-2015年全球贸易网络社团划分图
Fig. 3  1985年全球贸易市场多元化分布图
Fig. 4  2015年全球贸易市场多元化分布图
Fig. 5  2015年第一大贸易伙伴空间分布图
Fig. 6  2015年前两位贸易伙伴空间分布图
[1] 王林生. 经济全球化与中国的对外贸易(二). 国际贸易问题, 2000, (11): 20-23.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/96001X/200011/4656979.html
[Wang Linsheng.Economic globalization and China's foreign trade (Ⅱ). International Trade Journal, 2000, (11): 20-23.]
[2] 郑军, 张永庆, 黄霞. 2000-2014年海上丝绸之路贸易网络结构特征演化. 国际贸易问题, 2017, (3): 154-165.
[Zheng Jun, Zhang Yongqing, Huang Xia.Evolution of the maritime silk road trade network structural characteristics in 2000-2014. Journal of International Trade, 2017, (3): 154-165.]
[3] Snyder D, Kick E L.Structural position in the world system and economic growth, 1955-1970: A multiple-network analysis of transnational interactions. American Journal of Sociology, 1979, 84(5): 1096-1126.https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/226902
DOI: 10.1086/226902     
[4] Garlaschelli D, Loffredo M I.Patterns of link reciprocity in directed networks. Physical Review Letters, 2004, 93(26): 268701.https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.268701
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.268701      PMID: 15698035     
[5] Serrano M Á, Boguñá M, Vespignani A.Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web. Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, 2007, 2(2): 111-124.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11403-007-0026-y
[6] Bhattacharya K, Mukherjee G, Saramäki J, et al.The international trade network: Weighted network analysis and modelling. Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory & Experiment, 2008, 41(2): 139-147.
[7] Fagiolo G, Reyes J, Schiavo S.The evolution of the world trade web: A weighted-network analysis. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 2010, 20(4): 479-514.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00191-009-0160-x
[8] 陈银飞. 2000-2009年世界贸易格局的社会网络分析. 国际贸易问题, 2011, (11): 31-42.
[Chen Yinfei.Analysis on social network of world trade situation in 2000-2009. International Trade Journal, 2011, (11): 31-42.]
[9] 徐正中. 国际贸易网络演化研究. 大连: 东北财经大学硕士学位论文, 2012.http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10173-1013164031.htm
[Xu Zhengzhong.The research on world trade network. Dalian: Master Dissertation of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 2012.]
[10] 潘峰华, 赖志勇, 葛岳静. 经贸视角下中国周边地缘环境分析: 基于社会网络分析方法. 地理研究, 2015, 34(4): 775-786.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/201504/1005686413.html [Pan Fenghua, Lai Zhiyong, Ge Yuejing.The surrounding geopolitical environment of China: A social network analysis based on trade data. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(4): 775-786.]
[11] 邹嘉龄, 刘卫东. 2001-2013年中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易网络分析. 地理科学, 2016, 36(11): 1629-1636.http://cpfd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CPFDTOTAL-ZGDQ201506001137.htm [Zou Jialing, Liu Weidong.Trade network of China and countries along"Belt and Road Initiative"areas from 2001 to 2013. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(11): 1629-1636.]
[12] 张虹. 中国参与东盟区域经贸合作研究: 基于社会网络分析视角. 对外经贸, 2016, (4): 25-28.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/hljdwjm201604008
[Zhang Hong.China's participation in ASEAN Regional Economic and trade cooperation: Based on the perspective of social network analysis. Foreign Economic Relations & Trade, 2016, (4): 25-28.]
[13] 杜德斌, 马亚华. 中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究. 世界地理研究, 2012, 21(1): 1-16.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_sjdlyj201201001.aspx
[Du Debin, Ma Yahua.Geography of containment and anti-containment of China's peaceful rise. World Regional Studies, 2012, 21(1): 1-16.]
[14] 刘军. 整体网分析讲义: UCINET 软件实用指南. 上海: 格致出版社, 上海人民出版社, 2009.
[Liu Jun.Lectures on Whole Network Approach: A Practical Guide to UCINET. Shanghai: Truth &Wisdom Press and Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2009.]
[15] Newman M E J. The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Review. 2003, 45(2): 167-256.http://epubs.siam.org/doi/10.1137/S003614450342480
[16] Blondel V D, Guillaume J L, Lambiotte R, et al.Fast unfolding of communities in large networks. Journal of Statistical Mechanics Theory & Experiment, 2008, 10: 155-168.
[17] Zhong W, An H, Gao X, et al.The evolution of communities in the international oil trade network. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics & Its Applications, 2014, 413(11): 42-52.http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpls/abs_all.jsp?arnumber=1636007
[18] 吴俊, 谭跃进, 邓宏钟, . 无标度网络拓扑结构非均匀性研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2007, 27(5): 101-105.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/71135X/201107/24553297.html [Wu Jun, Tan Yuejin, Deng Hongzhong, et al.Heterogeneity of scale-free network topology. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2007, 27(5): 101-105.]
[19] 许和连, 孙天阳. TPP背景下世界高端制造业贸易格局演化研究: 基于复杂网络的社团分析. 国际贸易问题, 2015, (8): 3-13.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/96001X/201508/665667863.html
[Xu Helian, Sun TianYang. Evolution of world's high-end manufacturing trade pattern against background of TPP: A study based on community analysis of complex networks. Journal of International Trade, 2015, (8): 3-13.]
[20] 洪之涓. “亚洲间贸易”论的理论述评及其现实意义. 经济学, 2009, 8(2): 427-442.
[Hong Zhijuan."Intra-Asian Trade" Theory and its contemporary meanings. China Economic Quarterly, 2009, 8(2): 427-442.]
[21] 郑有国. 中日经济与亚洲经济的一体化. 亚太经济, 2006, (6): 45-49.http://www.cqvip.com/Main/Detail.aspx?id=23142156 [Zheng Youguo.An approach into the effects of China-Japan relation on the incorporation of Asian economy. Asia-Pacific Economic Review, 2006, (6): 45-49.]
[22] 赵立斌. 跨国公司FDI与东盟国家参与全球生产网络进程. 国际经贸探索, 2014, 30(1): 69-80.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/97153X/201401/48406082.html
[Zhao Libin.Multinational corporations' FDI and ASEAN countries' process of participation in global production networks. International Economics and Trade Research, 2014, 30(1): 69-80.]
[23] 唐海燕, 张会清. 中国崛起与东亚生产网络重构. 中国工业经济, 2008, (12): 52-56.http://www.cqvip.com/Main/Detail.aspx?id=29569811
[Tang Haiyan, Zhang Huiqing.China's rise and reorganization of East Asian production networks. China Industrial Economics, 2008, (12): 52-56.]
[24] 华晓红. 拓展均衡:我国出口市场多元化战略评价与调整. 国际贸易, 2002, (9): 4-12.
[Hua Xiaohong.Expanding equilibrium: Evaluation and adjustment of China's export market diversification strategy. Intertrade, 2002, (9): 4-12.]
[25] 甘均先. “一带一路”: 龙象独行抑或共舞?. 国际问题研究, 2015, (4): 96-113.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/94094X/201504/665475895.html [Gan Junxian.The Belt and Road Initiative for India: Walking alone or dancing with China?. International Studies, 2015, (4): 96-113.]
[26] 蓝建学. 中印关系新思维与”再平衡”. 国际问题研究, 2013, (3): 94-103.
[Lan Jianxue.New thinking and "rebalancing" of Sino-Indian relations. International Studies, 2013, (3): 94-103.]
[27] 綦大鹏, 张弛. 亚太战略形势评析. 现代国际关系, 2014, (9): 1-6.
[Qi Dapeng, Zhang Chi.An analysis of Asia-Pacific Region's strategic situation. Contemporary International Relations, 2014, (9): 1-6.]
[28] 杜德斌, 马亚华. “一带一路”: 中华民族复兴的地缘大战略. 地理研究, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.
[Du Debin, Ma Yahua.One Belt and One Road: The grand geo-strategy of China's rise. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(6): 1005-1014.]
[29] 毛汉英. 中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(3): 289-302. [Mao Hanying.Geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in the surrounding areas and China's strategies. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(3): 289-302.]
[30] 魏龙, 王磊. 从嵌入全球价值链到主导区域价值链: “一带一路”战略的经济可行性分析. 国际贸易问题, 2016, (5): 104-115.
[Wei Long, Wang Lei.From embedding global value chains to leading regional value chains: The economic feasibility analysis of the "One Belt and One Road" strategy. International Trade Journal, 2016, (5): 104-115.]
[31] 李倩. 中国进口贸易影响因素研究. 南京: 南京大学硕士学位论文, 2012.http://cdmd.cnki.com.cn/Article/CDMD-10284-1012376083.htm
[Li Qian.A research on the influencing factors of import trade in China: A panel data analysis based on gravity model. Nanjing: Master Dissertation of Nanjing University, 2012.]
[32] 刘卫东. “一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(5): 538-544.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dlkxjz201505001 [Liu Weidong.Scientific understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative of China and related research themes. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(5): 538-544.]
[33] 宋涛, 陆大道, 梁宜. 大国崛起的地缘政治战略演化: 以美国为例. 地理研究, 2017, 36(2): 215-225.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/201702/671411564.html [Song Tao, Lu Dadao, Liang Yi.The evolution of great powers' geostrategy during their rise: A case study of the United States and its enlightenment to China. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(2): 215-225.]
[1] 刘大庆,白玲,张宏,郗笃刚,焦昆,吴斌. 全球地缘政治格局演变的动力机制——基于变量与变量关系的解析[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(2): 391-403.
[2] 覃雄合,杜德斌,刘树峰,范斐. 中国省际高校科研成果转化效率时空格局与影响因素——基于网络SBM模型的评价[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(9): 1641-1652.
[3] 贺灿飞,金璐璐,刘颖. 多维邻近性对中国出口产品空间演化的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(9): 1613-1626.
[4] 莫辉辉,胡华清,王姣娥. 中国货运航空企业发展过程及航线网络演化格局[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1503-1514.
[5] 史培军,王季薇,张钢锋,孔锋,王静爱. 透视中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1401-1414.
[6] 黄跃,李琳. 中国城市群绿色发展水平综合测度与时空演化[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7): 1309-1322.
[7] 周灿,曾刚,曹贤忠. 中国城市创新网络结构与创新能力研究[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7): 1297-1308.
[8] 李涛,刘家明,徐庆颖,朱鹤,余玲. 中国省域文化旅游资本的空间结构与流动——基于主题公园投资数据的分析[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7): 1283-1296.
[9] 李侠祥,张学珍,张丽娟,郑景云. 中国东部土地利用/覆盖变化对夏季降水影响的不稳定性研究[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7): 1233-1244.
[10] 杜德斌,马亚华. “一带一路”——全球治理模式的新探索[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(7): 1203-1209.
[11] 孔钦钦,葛全胜,郑景云. 中国极端通用热气候指数的时空变化[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(6): 1171-1182.
[12] 保继刚, 张捷, 徐红罡, 章锦河, 陈田, 张国友, 陆林, 黄震方, 翁时秀, 孙九霞, 罗秋菊, 钟林生, 马晓龙, 张宏磊, 白凯, 李山, 韩国圣, 张朝枝. 中国旅游地理研究:在他乡与故乡之间[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(5): 803-823.
[13] 臧正,邹欣庆,宋翘楚. 空间权重对分析地理要素时空关联格局的影响——基于中国大陆省域水资源消耗强度的实证[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(5): 872-886.
[14] 翁时秀,保继刚. 中国旅游地理学学术实践的代际差异与学科转型[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(5): 824-836.
[15] 张慧,王洋. 中国耕地压力的空间分异及社会经济因素影响——基于342个地级行政区的面板数据[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 731-742.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《地理研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn