近50年来黑龙江省冻土厚度的时空变化特征

doi:10.11821/dlyj201803013

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于MK检验、滑动t检验、EOF分析方法,使用近50年（1961-2012年）黑龙江省32个气象基准台站逐日冻土观测数据、气温观测数据,对黑龙江省冻土厚度时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明：① 近50年黑龙江省冻土厚度减少了12.86 cm,下降速率为-0.53 cm/a,以2001年为界发生了突变。② 冻土厚度空间分布呈现由北厚南薄格局,中部地区冻土厚度较同纬度其他区域偏低;空间变化呈现南部冻土厚度降低快,北部降低慢,中部与西部、东南部呈相反变化的特征,伊春、铁力、漠河观测点为冻土变化敏感区。③ 气温是影响黑龙江省冻土厚度变化的主要因素,与冻土厚度相关系数为-0.611。本文的主要贡献为揭示了黑龙江省冻土厚度的空间变化特征,为相关研究及各级政府规划提供了依据。

关键词: 时空变化, 突变分析, EOF分析, 冻土厚度, 黑龙江省

Abstract:

This study used the Mann-Kendall test, the smoothing T-test, and empirical orthogonal function analysis method to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province, with daily permafrost monitoring and temperature data obtained from 32 meteorological stations in the past 50 years (1961-2012). The results were as follows. (1) In the past 50 years, the permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province decreased by 12.86 cm, at a rate of -0.53 cm/yr. An abrupt change occurred in 2001. (2) The spatial distribution of the permafrost thickness showed a tendency of being thick in the northern part and thin in the southern part, whereas in the central region the permafrost thickness was lower than that in other areas at the same latitude. The spatial variation showed that the permafrost thickness decreased faster in the southern part and at a slower rate in the northern part, while the central, western, and southeastern regions showed the opposite characteristics. The Yichun, Tieli, and Mohe observation points were more susceptible to permafrost change. (3) Temperature was the main factor influencing the permafrost thickness variations in the study area, and the correlation coefficient was -0.611. This main contribution of this article is that it reveals the spatial variation characteristics of permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang, and thus provides a suitable background for related research and various government programs.

Key words: spatial and temporal variations, abrupt change analysis, empirical orthogonal function analysis, permafrost thickness, Heilongjiang province

王宁, 臧淑英, 张丽娟. 近50年来黑龙江省冻土厚度的时空变化特征[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(3): 622-634.

Ning WANG, Shuying ZANG, Lijuan ZHANG. Spatial and temporal variations of spermafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province in recent years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(3): 622-634.

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插值方法	MAE	RMSE
普通克里金	6.9949	1.6241
泛克里金	14.6388	3.9783
反距离权重全局多项式局部多项式	14.1078 10.0323 15.0864	3.7253 2.5412 4.8455

特征向量	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
方差	44.2	11.3	7.4	5.1	4.5	4	3.2	2.7	2.6	2.3
累计方差	44.2	55.5	62.9	68	72.5	76.5	79.7	82.4	85	87.3