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地理研究    2018, Vol. 37 Issue (3): 622-634     DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201803013
  研究论文 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
近50年来黑龙江省冻土厚度的时空变化特征
王宁(),臧淑英(),张丽娟
黑龙江省普通高等学校地理环境遥感监测重点实验室,哈尔滨师范大学,哈尔滨 150025
Spatial and temporal variations of spermafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province in recent years
WANG Ning(),ZANG Shuying(),ZHANG Lijuan
Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Geographic Environment, College of Geographical Science, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
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摘要 

基于MK检验、滑动t检验、EOF分析方法,使用近50年(1961-2012年)黑龙江省32个气象基准台站逐日冻土观测数据、气温观测数据,对黑龙江省冻土厚度时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:① 近50年黑龙江省冻土厚度减少了12.86 cm,下降速率为-0.53 cm/a,以2001年为界发生了突变。② 冻土厚度空间分布呈现由北厚南薄格局,中部地区冻土厚度较同纬度其他区域偏低;空间变化呈现南部冻土厚度降低快,北部降低慢,中部与西部、东南部呈相反变化的特征,伊春、铁力、漠河观测点为冻土变化敏感区。③ 气温是影响黑龙江省冻土厚度变化的主要因素,与冻土厚度相关系数为-0.611。本文的主要贡献为揭示了黑龙江省冻土厚度的空间变化特征,为相关研究及各级政府规划提供了依据。

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王宁
臧淑英
张丽娟
关键词 时空变化突变分析EOF分析冻土厚度黑龙江省 
Abstract

This study used the Mann-Kendall test, the smoothing T-test, and empirical orthogonal function analysis method to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province, with daily permafrost monitoring and temperature data obtained from 32 meteorological stations in the past 50 years (1961-2012). The results were as follows. (1) In the past 50 years, the permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province decreased by 12.86 cm, at a rate of -0.53 cm/yr. An abrupt change occurred in 2001. (2) The spatial distribution of the permafrost thickness showed a tendency of being thick in the northern part and thin in the southern part, whereas in the central region the permafrost thickness was lower than that in other areas at the same latitude. The spatial variation showed that the permafrost thickness decreased faster in the southern part and at a slower rate in the northern part, while the central, western, and southeastern regions showed the opposite characteristics. The Yichun, Tieli, and Mohe observation points were more susceptible to permafrost change. (3) Temperature was the main factor influencing the permafrost thickness variations in the study area, and the correlation coefficient was -0.611. This main contribution of this article is that it reveals the spatial variation characteristics of permafrost thickness in Heilongjiang, and thus provides a suitable background for related research and various government programs.

Key wordsspatial and temporal variations    abrupt change analysis    empirical orthogonal function analysis    permafrost thickness    Heilongjiang province
收稿日期: 2017-09-26      出版日期: 2018-04-25
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41571199)
引用本文:   
王宁, 臧淑英, 张丽娟 . 近50年来黑龙江省冻土厚度的时空变化特征[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(3): 622-634.
WANG Ning, ZANG Shuying, ZHANG Lijuan . Spatial and temporal variations of spermafrost thickness in Heilongjiang province in recent years[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(3): 622-634.
链接本文:  
http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/10.11821/dlyj201803013      或      http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I3/622
Fig. 1  技术路线图
Fig. 2  研究区冻土类型分布图
Fig. 3  冻土厚度年变化图及其回归分析
Fig. 4  冻土厚度年代变化图
Fig. 5  冻土厚度Mann-Kendall检验图
Fig. 6  冻土厚度滑动t检验图
Fig. 7  冻土厚度季节变化图及其回归分析
插值方法 MAE RMSE
普通克里金 6.9949 1.6241
泛克里金 14.6388 3.9783
反距离权重
全局多项式
局部多项式
14.1078
10.0323
15.0864
3.7253
2.5412
4.8455
Tab.1  五种方法交叉检验结果
Fig. 8  实测值与插值结果点对比图
Fig. 9  冻土厚度年空间分布图
Fig. 10  冻土厚度季节空间分布图
Fig. 11  冻土厚度年倾向率空间分布图
Fig. 12  冻土厚度年代倾向率空间分布图
Fig. 13  气温与冻土厚度相关系数图
Fig. 14  EOF分解特征向量空间分布
Fig. 15  冻土厚度距平值空间分布
特征向量 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
方差 44.2 11.3 7.4 5.1 4.5 4 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.3
累计方差 44.2 55.5 62.9 68 72.5 76.5 79.7 82.4 85 87.3
Tab.2  EOF前十个特征向量方差累计贡献率(%)
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