地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (5): 1034-1046.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201805014

• 研究论文 • 上一篇    

中国大陆生态效率时空演化分析及其趋势预测

郑德凤1(), 郝帅1, 孙才志1,2, 吕乐婷1   

  1. 1. 辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,大连 116029
    2. 辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,大连 116029
  • 收稿日期:2017-09-14 修回日期:2018-01-27 出版日期:2018-05-20 发布日期:2018-06-26
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:郑德凤(1970-),女,黑龙江伊春人,博士,副教授,主要从事资源环境与可持续发展、水资源评价与管理研究。E-mail: defengzheng@lnnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金项目(17BJL105)

Spatio-temporal pattern evolution of eco-efficiency and the forecast in mainland of China

Defeng ZHENG1(), Shuai HAO1, Caizhi SUN1,2, Leting LV1   

  1. 1. School of Urban Planning and Environmental Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2. Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2017-09-14 Revised:2018-01-27 Online:2018-05-20 Published:2018-06-26
  • About author:

    Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail: kevinszq@163.com

    *Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.

    E-mail: dengwei@imde.ac.cn

摘要:

基于水足迹理论和生态系统服务价值理论,构建生态效率测度评价指标体系,利用SBM模型、标准差椭圆(SDE)方向分布模型、灰色动态模型,结合相关统计数据,对2000-2015年中国大陆生态效率进行测度、分析,并对其空间分布格局进行表征与预测。结果表明:① 中国大陆生态效率从研究初期的中等水平降为研究末期的较低水平,区域间呈现东部地区>东北地区>中部地区>西部地区的态势;空间上由研究初期的东、东北、中、西地带性分布转变为研究末期仅北京、天津、上海、广东保持完全有效。② 造成中国大陆生态效率损失的主要因素依次为资源环境成本投入、灰水足迹、土地投入及环境污染。③ 研究时期内中国大陆生态效率空间分布重心南北向移动速度快于东西向移动速度,移动路径呈“西北—东南—西北—东南”变化趋势;移动速度呈现“加快—降低—降低”的过程。空间分布范围经历了“分散—集聚”的过程,空间分布格局由东北—西南逐渐趋向于偏北—偏南格局。④ 预测结果显示未来10~20年中国大陆生态效率空间分布格局重心向东北方向移动,空间分布格局在东西方向、南北方向均呈收缩态势,生态效率空间溢出效应仍不明显。研究结果较好地反映了当前中国大陆生态效率的整体状况,预测结果可为政府及有关部门制定相关政策提供参考。

关键词: 生态效率, SBM模型, 标准差椭圆, 灰色动态模型, 中国大陆

Abstract:

The evaluation of eco-efficiency will provide a significant prospective for understan ding the regional socio-economic development status in the mainland of China. In this paper, the water footprint and resource and environmental costs were introduced into input indexes, grey water footprint was introduced into undesirable output indexes based on water footprint theory and ecosystem service value theory. Then, the SBM model considering the undesirable outputs of DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) was used to calculate the eco-efficiency, and the SDE (Standard Deviational Ellipse) model was adapted to analyze the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency. Finally, the GM(1, 1) model was employed to forecast the standard deviational ellipse parameters and visualize the future spatial pattern of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China in 2025 and 2035. The results showed that: (1) The eco-efficiency had an fluctuated downward trend during 2000-2015, the overall changing trend and changing process of eco-efficiency in four regions of China were basically consistent with the whole country. And the eco-efficiency of China demonstrated a characteristic of spatial heterogeneity, which presented a trend of "eastern region > northeastern region > central region > western region". The eco-efficiency demonstrated a obvious distribution of zonality from east to west in the initial stage, and only Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Guangdong remained fully effective in 2015. (2) The main factors that caused the loss of eco-efficiency were successively resource and environmental costs, grey water footprint, land input and environmental pollution. (3) The displacement of spatial pattern gravity of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China was 60.68 km from Suiping County to Luohe City in the study period, and the displacement distance in east-west and north-south directions were respectively 32.16 km and 51.13 km, respectively. The trajectories of eco-efficiency gravity showed the trend of "northwest-southeast-northwest-southeast", but its moving speed presented a process of "accelerating-decreasing-decreasing". Spatial distribution range of eco-efficiency experienced a process of "decentralized-centralized", and the spatial pattern of eco-efficiency has changed from northeast-southwest gradually to north-south in the study period. (4) The forecast results showed that eco-efficiency gravity will move to the northeast and the spatial distribution range of eco-efficiency will present a centralized tendency in the east-west and north-south in the next 10-20 years. And the spillover effect of eco-efficiency is not obvious in the future. The above evaluation results could reflect well the current situation of eco-efficiency in the mainland of China, and the forecast of spatial pattern will help the government to make some effective policies.

Key words: eco-efficiency, SBM model, standard deviational ellipse, grey dynamic model, mainland of China