地理研究

地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 1268-1281.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201807002

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中国资源型城市经济演化特征与影响因素——路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造的作用

苗长虹1,2(), 胡志强1,2, 耿凤娟1,2, 苗健铭3   

  1. 1. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,开封 475001
    2. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475004
    3. 河南大学国际教育学院,开封 475001
  • 收稿日期:2017-11-15 修回日期:2018-05-06 出版日期:2018-07-30 发布日期:2018-08-03
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：苗长虹（1965- ）,男,河南鄢陵人,博士,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为经济地理与区域发展。E-mail:chhmiao@henu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目（41430637）;教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目（2009JJD790013）

Characteristics of economic evolution and the influencing factors of resource-dependent cities in China: The role of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation

Changhong MIAO1,2(), Zhiqiang HU1,2, Fengjuan GENG1,2, Jianming MIAO3   

  1. 1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative, Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China;
    2. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
    3. College of International Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China
  • Received:2017-11-15 Revised:2018-05-06 Online:2018-07-30 Published:2018-08-03
  • About author:

    Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail: kevinszq@163.com

    *Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.

    E-mail: dengwei@imde.ac.cn

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摘要：

以中国116个资源型城市为分析对象,从路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造三个方面分析资源型城市经济演化的特点与路径分异,引入计量模型考察其对资源型城市经济增长与转型的作用,并分析其影响因素。研究发现：① 资源型城市的路径依赖水平北方较高,北方和内陆的脆弱性整体更高,路径创造水平由沿海向内陆递减。黑、晋、陕、甘和云、贵、川等地资源型城市的脆弱性较高,路径创造水平较低。② 中国资源型城市的演化路径可以划分为趋向锁定、趋向解锁、随机变化三种类型。③ 路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造在不同宏观经济环境下对资源型城市经济增长和转型的作用不同,在宏观经济高速扩张时期,脆弱性有利于增长,路径创造能力强的城市反而增速较慢;而进入经济新常态阶段,路径依赖和脆弱性对增长的阻碍作用显现。④ 路径依赖和路径创造水平深受人口规模、国有企业比例的影响,脆弱性水平主要和人口规模有关。采矿业比例会影响资源类产业的路径创造,而对外开放水平则影响非资源类产业的路径创造。北方、内陆和煤炭型城市更易于形成高路径依赖。⑤ 提高人口集聚规模,降低国有企业比例,是降低路径依赖、提高路径创造水平的关键,人口集聚和扩大对外开放则分别有利于脆弱性的下降和路径创造能力的提升,应针对不同区域、资源类型和演化路径的资源型城市,制定差异化和精准的政策措施。

关键词: 资源型城市, 演化经济地理, 路径依赖, 脆弱性, 路径创造

Abstract:

Taking 116 Chinese resource-dependent cities as research objects, this paper analyzes the economic evolution characteristics and path differentiation of resource-dependent cities from three aspects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation. The econometric model is adopted to study the roles of the three aspects on economic growth and structure transition of resource-dependent cities, and the factors that affect the three aspects are also analyzed. The results are shown as follows: (1) Resource-dependent cities in northern China are of higher path dependence. Vulnerability of north and inland areas is generally higher, while path creation ability decreases from the coast to the inland. Some cities are of higher vulnerability and lower path creation, such as those of Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan. (2) Evolution paths of China's resource-dependent cities can be divided into three types: the tendency to be lock-in, the tendency to unlock and random variation. (3)The effects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation on economic growth and transition will differ under different macroeconomic circumstances: vulnerability is conducive to economic growth when macro-economy expands rapidly, and cities with strong path creativity are slower to grow. When Chinese economy enters the new normal stage, it presents that the path dependence and vulnerability would hinder the economic growth. (4) Path dependence and path creation are greatly affected by population scale and the proportion of state-owned enterprises. The level of vulnerability is mainly related to population agglomeration. The proportion of mining industry affects the path creation of resource-dependent industry, while the openness degree affects the path creation of non-resource industry. The north, inland and coal-dependent cities are prone to be of high path dependence. (5) The key of reducing path dependence and improving path creation is to upgrade population scale and decrease the proportion of state-owned enterprises. Population agglomeration and opening to the outside world are conducive to the decline of vulnerability and the promotion of path creativity. Different and targeted policies and measures should be implemented by taking into account the regions, resource types and evolutionary paths of resource-dependent cities.

Key words: resource-dependent cities, evolutionary economic geography, path dependence, vulnerability, path creation