Please wait a minute...
 首页  期刊介绍 期刊订阅 广告合作 联系我们 English
 
最新录用  |  当期目录  |  过刊浏览  |  热点文章  |  阅读排行  |  下载排行  |  引用排行
地理研究    2018, Vol. 37 Issue (7): 1268-1281     DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201807002
  本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国资源型城市经济演化特征与影响因素——路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造的作用
苗长虹1,2(),胡志强1,2,耿凤娟1,2,苗健铭3
1. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心暨黄河文明传承与现代文明建设河南省协同创新中心,开封 475001
2. 河南大学环境与规划学院,开封 475004
3. 河南大学国际教育学院,开封 475001
Characteristics of economic evolution and the influencing factors of resource-dependent cities in China: The role of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation
MIAO Changhong1,2(),HU Zhiqiang1,2,GENG Fengjuan1,2,MIAO Jianming3
1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative, Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China;
2. College of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, Henan, China
3. College of International Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China
全文: PDF (3775 KB)   HTML
输出: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)     
摘要 

以中国116个资源型城市为分析对象,从路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造三个方面分析资源型城市经济演化的特点与路径分异,引入计量模型考察其对资源型城市经济增长与转型的作用,并分析其影响因素。研究发现:① 资源型城市的路径依赖水平北方较高,北方和内陆的脆弱性整体更高,路径创造水平由沿海向内陆递减。黑、晋、陕、甘和云、贵、川等地资源型城市的脆弱性较高,路径创造水平较低。② 中国资源型城市的演化路径可以划分为趋向锁定、趋向解锁、随机变化三种类型。③ 路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造在不同宏观经济环境下对资源型城市经济增长和转型的作用不同,在宏观经济高速扩张时期,脆弱性有利于增长,路径创造能力强的城市反而增速较慢;而进入经济新常态阶段,路径依赖和脆弱性对增长的阻碍作用显现。④ 路径依赖和路径创造水平深受人口规模、国有企业比例的影响,脆弱性水平主要和人口规模有关。采矿业比例会影响资源类产业的路径创造,而对外开放水平则影响非资源类产业的路径创造。北方、内陆和煤炭型城市更易于形成高路径依赖。⑤ 提高人口集聚规模,降低国有企业比例,是降低路径依赖、提高路径创造水平的关键,人口集聚和扩大对外开放则分别有利于脆弱性的下降和路径创造能力的提升,应针对不同区域、资源类型和演化路径的资源型城市,制定差异化和精准的政策措施。

服务
把本文推荐给朋友
加入引用管理器
E-mail Alert
RSS
作者相关文章
苗长虹
胡志强
耿凤娟
苗健铭
关键词 资源型城市演化经济地理路径依赖脆弱性路径创造 
Abstract

Taking 116 Chinese resource-dependent cities as research objects, this paper analyzes the economic evolution characteristics and path differentiation of resource-dependent cities from three aspects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation. The econometric model is adopted to study the roles of the three aspects on economic growth and structure transition of resource-dependent cities, and the factors that affect the three aspects are also analyzed. The results are shown as follows: (1) Resource-dependent cities in northern China are of higher path dependence. Vulnerability of north and inland areas is generally higher, while path creation ability decreases from the coast to the inland. Some cities are of higher vulnerability and lower path creation, such as those of Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan. (2) Evolution paths of China's resource-dependent cities can be divided into three types: the tendency to be lock-in, the tendency to unlock and random variation. (3)The effects of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation on economic growth and transition will differ under different macroeconomic circumstances: vulnerability is conducive to economic growth when macro-economy expands rapidly, and cities with strong path creativity are slower to grow. When Chinese economy enters the new normal stage, it presents that the path dependence and vulnerability would hinder the economic growth. (4) Path dependence and path creation are greatly affected by population scale and the proportion of state-owned enterprises. The level of vulnerability is mainly related to population agglomeration. The proportion of mining industry affects the path creation of resource-dependent industry, while the openness degree affects the path creation of non-resource industry. The north, inland and coal-dependent cities are prone to be of high path dependence. (5) The key of reducing path dependence and improving path creation is to upgrade population scale and decrease the proportion of state-owned enterprises. Population agglomeration and opening to the outside world are conducive to the decline of vulnerability and the promotion of path creativity. Different and targeted policies and measures should be implemented by taking into account the regions, resource types and evolutionary paths of resource-dependent cities.

Key wordsresource-dependent cities    evolutionary economic geography    path dependence    vulnerability    path creation
收稿日期: 2017-11-15      出版日期: 2018-08-03
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41430637);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790013)
引用本文:   
苗长虹, 胡志强, 耿凤娟等 . 中国资源型城市经济演化特征与影响因素——路径依赖、脆弱性和路径创造的作用[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1268-1281.
MIAO Changhong, HU Zhiqiang, GENG Fengjuan et al . Characteristics of economic evolution and the influencing factors of resource-dependent cities in China: The role of path dependence, vulnerability and path creation[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(7): 1268-1281.
链接本文:  
http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/10.11821/dlyj201807002      或      http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I7/1268
Fig. 1  资源型城市经济演化的分析框架
模型1 模型2
因变量 自变量 因变量 自变量
增长 路径依赖 路径依赖 产业结构
转型 脆弱性 脆弱性 城市规模
路径创造 路径创造 经济水平
经济水平 对外开放
对外开放 体制锁定
城市资源类型
城市区位
Tab. 1  变量定义
Fig. 2  2000年、2007年资源型城市路径依赖程度的空间格局
Fig. 3  2000年、2007年资源型城市脆弱性的空间格局
Fig. 4  2000年、2007年资源型城市路径创造能力的空间格局
演化类型 城市名称
趋向锁定型 大同、阳泉、长治、忻州、吕梁、鞍山、鸡西、七台河、淮南、曲靖、丽江、宝鸡、渭南、延安、榆林、平凉、庆阳、克拉玛依
趋向解锁型 邢台、湖州、马鞍山、宜春、东营、焦作、石嘴山
随机变化型 其他资源型城市
Tab. 2  2000-2007年资源型城市演化路径的分异
增长 转型
2000-2007年 2008-2012年 2013-2015年 2000年 2007年
RZI -0.004
(-1.626)
0.003
(1.216)
-0.006*
(-1.965)
0.873***
(11.605)
0.574***
(6.328)
RE 0.075***
(3.710)
-0.024
(-0.766)
-0.081*
(-1.812)
-1.022
(-1.461)
1.190
(0.961)
RV 0.009
(0.811)
0.008
(0.869)
0.009
(0.680)
-0.626*
(-1.927)
-0.916**
(-2.603)
UV -0.018*
(-1.657)
-0.023***
(-2.810)
0.004
(0.358)
-0.486
(-1.549)
-0.021
(-0.065)
lnRGDP 0.002
(0.296)
-0.015**
(-2.403)
-0.037***
(-4.175)
0.033
(0.151)
0.270
(1.140)
FDI -0.132
(-0.345)
0.550**
(2.424)
0.322
(0.930)
6.468
(0.630)
-3.332
(-0.379)
constant 0.158**
(2.350)
0.355***
(6.721)
0.444***
(5.075)
1.638
(0.933)
-3.332
(-0.379)
R2 0.08 0.16 0.37 0.68 0.62
Tab. 3  资源型城市经济增长与转型的回归结果
2000年 2007年
RZI RE RV UV RZI RE RV UV
S -- -- 0.008
(0.038)
-0.432***
(-2.911)
-- -- -0.445*
(-1.742)
-0.263
(-1.085)
lnPOP -0.414
(-0.813)
0.036
(0.544)
0.387**
(2.136)
0.392**
(2.505)
-1.533*
(-1.999)
-0.172***
(-2.657)
0.447**
(2.390)
0.674***
(3.797)
lnRGDP 0.798***
(2.708)
0.125***
(3.238)
-0.125
(-1.304)
0.121
(1.296)
0.620*
(1.657)
0.102***
(3.228)
-0.115
(-1.270)
0.023
(0.261)
FDI -0.553
(-0.035)
1.567
(0.760)
4.977
(1.191)
9.109*
(1.887)
-1.707
(-0.130)
-0.758
(-0.690)
4.949
(1.594)
6.112**
(2.072)
SOE 1.167***
(2.996)
0.054
(1.057)
-0.262
(-0.942)
0.054
(0.441)
7.842*
(1.767)
0.572
(1.545)
-2.604**
(-2.444)
-2.414**
(-2.386)
TYPE -1.082***
(-3.017)
-0.159***
(-3.379)
-0.203**
(-2.064)
-0.060
(-0.532)
-2.188***
(-5.501)
-0.137***
(-4.122)
-0.144
(-1.352)
0.006
(0.059)
EW -1.200**
(-2.567)
-0.047
(-0.772)
0.108
(0.830)
0.385***
(2.628)
-1.158**
(-2.292)
-0.065
(-1.551)
-0.022
(-0.182)
0.340***
(2.926)
SN -1.121***
(-2.906)
-0.011
(-0.219)
-0.094
(-0.870)
-0.14
(-1.143)
-1.176**
(-2.529)
-0.058
(-1.493)
-0.098
(-0.863)
-0.044
(-0.413)
constant -1.601
(-0.575)
-0.439
(-1.205)
2.387**
(2.581)
1.220
(1.419)
4.033
(1.016)
0.135
(0.406)
2.521***
(2.672)
1.588*
(1.772)
R2 0.25 0.12 0.15 0.26 0.38 0.29 0.17 0.40
Tab. 4  资源型城市经济演化特征的回归结果
[1] 申玉铭, 杨彬彬, 张云. 资源型城市的生态环境问题与综合整治: 以济宁市为例. 地理研究, 2006, 25(3): 430-438.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/200603/21961800.html [Shen Yuming, Yang Binbin, Zhang Yun.Study on the eco-environmental problems and its countermeasures in the sustainable development of resources-dependent cities: A case study of Jining city. Geographical Research, 2006, 25(3): 430-438.]
[2] 陈妍, 梅林. 东北地区资源型城市转型过程中社会—经济—环境协调演化特征. 地理研究, 2018, 37(2): 307-318.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/201802/674568344.html
[Chen Yan, Mei Lin.Coordination of the "economy-society-environment" triad in the transition development of resource: Based cities in Northeast China. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(2): 307-318.]
[3] 刘春燕, 谢萍, 毛端谦. 资源衰退型城市接续产业选择研究: 以江西萍乡市为例. 地理科学, 2014, 34(2): 192-197.
[Liu Chunyan, Xie Ping, Mao Duanqian.Selection of the superseded industries of resources recession city: A case of Pingxiang city. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34(2): 192-197.]
[4] 杨显明, 焦华富, 许吉黎. 煤炭资源型城市空间结构演化过程、模式及影响因素. 地理研究, 2015, 34(3): 513-524.
[Yang Xianming, Jiao Huafu, Xu Jili.Study on the evolution model, process and influence factors of the coal resource-based cities' spatial structure: A case study of Huainan city. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(3): 513-524.]
[5] 杨显明, 焦华富. 煤炭资源型城市产业结构锁定的形成、演化及机理研究: 以淮北市为例. 地理科学, 2015, 35(10): 1256-1264.
[Yang Xianming, Jiao Huafu.The path, evolution and mechanism of the industry structure locking-in for the coal resource-dependent city: A case study of Huaibei. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2015, 35(10): 1256-1264.]
[6] 刘云刚. 大庆市资源型产业结构转型对策研究. 经济地理, 2000, 20(5): 26-29.
[Liu Yungang.Studies on the adjustment of the industrial structure of resource type cities in the northeast area: Daqing as an example. Economic Geography, 2000, 20(5): 26-29.]
[7] 范育新, 高峰, 孙成权, . 有色金属资源城市经济转型发展的思考. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2004, 14(3): 85-87.
[Fan Yuxin, Gao Feng, Sun Chengquan, et al.Pondering on economy transition of nonferrous-mental resources-based cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2004, 14(3): 85-87.]
[8] 赵岩, 薛惠锋. 森林资源型城市经济发展转型问题研究. 中共中央党校学报, 2009, 13(3): 37-41.
[Zhao Yan, Xue Huifeng.Study on the economic development transition of forest resource-dependent cities. Journal of the Party School of the Central Committee of the C.P.C., 2009, 13(3): 37-41.]
[9] 杨宇, 董雯, 刘毅, . 东北地区资源型产业发展特征及对策建议. 地理科学, 2016, 36(9): 1359-1370. [Yang Yu, Dong Wen, Liu Yi, et al.Resources-dependent industry development and its countermeasures in Northeast China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36(9): 1359-1370.]
[10] 余建辉, 张文忠, 王岱, . 资源枯竭城市转型成效测度研究. 资源科学, 2013, 35(9): 1812-1820.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/zykx201309010
[Yu Jianhui, Zhang Wenzhong, Wang Dai, et al.The effect of resource-exhausted city transformation. Resources Science, 2013, 35(9): 1812-1820.]
[11] Sun Wei, Li Yang, Wang Dai, et al.The efficiencies and their changes of China's resources-based cities employing DEA and Malmquist Index Models. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2012, 22(3): 509-520.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11442-012-0943-0
[12] 朱爱琴, 曾菊新, 唐承财, . 资源型城市生命周期优化调控潜力测评. 人文地理, 2013, 28(5): 69-75.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/82608X/201305/47534644.html
[Zhu Aiqin, Zeng Juxin, Tang Chengcai, et al.Measuring the potentiality of regulation on the lifecycle of resource-dependent city. Human Geography, 2013, 28(5): 69-75.]
[13] 李江苏, 唐志鹏. 再生型资源型城市产业的结构性增长研究: 以唐山市为例. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 707-718.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/201704/671941452.html [Li Jiangsu, Tang Zhipeng.An analysis of industrial structure increase of regenerative resource-based cities: A case of Tangshan city. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(4): 707-718.]
[14] 张志赟, 刘辉, 杨义炜. 资源枯竭型城市空间扩展进程研究: 以淮北市为例. 地理研究, 2018, 37(1): 183-198.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/95732X/201801/674398663.html
[Zhang Zhiyun, Liu Hui, Yang Yiwei.Urban spatio-temporal expansion process for resource-exhausted cities: A case study of Huaibei city. Geographical Research, 2018, 37(1): 183-198.]
[15] 黄悦, 李秋雨, 梅林, . 东北地区资源型城市资源诅咒效应及传导机制研究. 人文地理, 2015, 30(6): 121-125.http://www.cqvip.com/QK/82608X/201506/667721589.html
[Huang Yue, Li Qiuyu, Mei Lin, et al.Resource curse effect and transmission mechanism of resource-dependent cities in Northeast China. Human Geography, 2015, 30(6): 121-125.]
[16] 孙淼, 丁四保. 我国资源型城市衰退的体制原因分析. 经济地理, 2005, 25(2): 273-276.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical_jjdl200502032.aspx [Sun Miao, Ding Sibao.The analysis on the reasons of institution system in Chinese resource-typed cities' recession. Economic Geography, 2005, 25(2): 273-276.]
[17] 苗长虹, 魏也华, 吕拉昌. 新经济地理学. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011: 67-81.
[Miao Changhong, Wei Yehua, Lyu Lachang. New Economic Geographies.Beijng: Science Press, 2011: 67-81.]
[18] Coe N, Hess M, Yung H W, et al.'Globalizing' regional development: A global production networks perspective. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, New Series, 2004, 29(4): 468-484.
[19] David P A.Clio and the economics of QWERTY. American Economic Review, 1985, 75(2): 332-337.http://www.jstor.org/stable/1805621
[20] Martin R, Sunley P.Path dependence and regional economic evolution. Journal of Economic Geography, 2006, 6(4): 395-437.http://academic.oup.com/joeg/article/6/4/395/1014440/Path-dependence-and-regional-economic-evolution
DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbl012     
[21] Arthur W B.Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1994.
[22] North D C.Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
[23] Hausner J, Jessop B, Nielsen K.Strategic Choice and Path-dependency in Post-socialism: Institutional Dynamics in the Transformation Process. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 1995.
[24] Grabher G.The weakness of strong ties: The lock-in of regional development in the Ruhr area. In: Grabher G (ed.). The Embedded Firm. London: Routledge, 1993: 253-277.http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/10026789153
[25] 樊杰, 孙威, 傅小锋, . 我国矿业城市持续发展的问题、成因与策略.自然资源学报, 2005, 20(1): 68-77.http://www.cqvip.com/qk/96143X/200501/11679973.html [Fan Jie, Sun Wei, Fu Xiaofeng, et al.Problems, reasons and strategies for sustainable development of mining cities in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(1): 68-77.]
[26] 程开明. 城市专业化、多样性与技术创新能力. 经济统计学, 2013, (1): 186-196.
[Cheng Kaiming.Specialization, diversity and innovation capacity of city. Economic Statistics, 2013, (1): 186-196.]
[27] 李鹤, 张平宇, 程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2): 18-26.http://d.wanfangdata.com.cn/Periodical/dlkxjz200802003 [Li He, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yeqing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability. Progress in Geography, 2008, 27(2): 18-26.]
[28] Foster K A.A case study approach to understanding regional resilience. Working Paper, University of California, 2007.
[29] Martin R, Sunley P.On the notion of regional economic resilience: Conceptualization and explanation. Journal of Economic Geography, 2015, 15(1): 1-42.https://academic.oup.com/joeg/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/jeg/lbu015
DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbu015     
[30] Martin R, Sunley P, Tyler P.Local growth evolutions: recession, resilience and recovery. Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, 2015, 8(2): 141-148.
[31] Martin, R L.Regional economic resilience, hysteresis and recessionary shocks. Journal of Economic Geography, 2012, 12(1): 1-32.https://academic.oup.com/joeg/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/jeg/lbr019
DOI: 10.1093/jeg/lbr019     
[32] Boschma R.Towards an evolutionary perspective on regional resilience. Regional Studies, 2015, 49(5): 733-751.http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00343404.2014.959481
[33] Schumpeter J A. Capitalism, Socialism,Democracy. New York: Harper and Brothers, 1942: 83.
[34] Garud R, Karnøe P.Path creation as a process of mindful deviation. In: Garud R, Karnøe P. Path Dependence and Creation. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 2001: 1-38.http://www.researchgate.net/publication/247120604_PATH_CREATION_AS_A_PROCESS_OF_MINDFUL_DEVIATION
[35] Schienstock G.Path dependence and path creation. Journal of Futures Studies, 2011, 15(4): 63-76.http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/full/10.1108/09513570910933979
[36] Pham X.Five principles of path creation. Oeconomicus, 2006, 8(1): 5-17.
[37] Beyer J.The same or not the same: On the variety of mechanisms of path dependence. International Journal of Social Sciences, 2010, 5(1): 1-11.http://www.researchgate.net/publication/242586728_The_Same_or_Not_the_Same_-_On_the_Variety_of_Mechanisms_of_Path_Dependence
[38] Frenken K, Oort F, Verburg T.Related variety, unrelated variety and regional economic growth. Regional Studies, 2007, 41(5): 685-697.http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00343400601120296
[1] 郭琪,朱晟君. 市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1377-1390.
[2] 刘志高,张薇. 中国大都市区高新技术产业分叉过程及动力机制——以武汉生物产业为例[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1349-1363.
[3] 吕可文,苗长虹,王静,丁欢. 协同演化与集群成长——河南禹州钧瓷产业集群的案例分析[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1320-1333.
[4] 贺灿飞. 区域产业发展演化:路径依赖还是路径创造?[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1253-1267.
[5] 陈妍,梅林. 东北地区资源型城市转型过程中社会—经济—环境协调演化特征[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(2): 307-318.
[6] 贺灿飞,金璐璐,刘颖. 多维邻近性对中国出口产品空间演化的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(9): 1613-1626.
[7] 李江苏,唐志鹏. 再生型资源型城市产业的结构性增长研究——以唐山市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(4): 707-718.
[8] 温晓金,杨新军,王子侨. 多适应目标下的山地城市社会—生态系统脆弱性评价[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(2): 299-312.
[9] 汪明峰,郗厚雪. 城市新兴技术产业的演化路径比较分析——以长三角物联网产业为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(9): 1697-1707.
[10] 李博,杨智,苏飞. 基于集对分析的大连市人海经济系统脆弱性测度[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(5): 967-976.
[11] 杨显明,焦华富,许吉黎. 煤炭资源型城市空间结构演化过程、模式及影响因素——基于淮南市的实证研究[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(3): 513-524.
[12] 李锋, 万年庆, 史本林, 刘晓满, 郭振江. 基于“环境-结构”集成视角的旅游产业脆弱性测度——以中国大陆31个省区市为例[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(3): 569-581.
[13] 麻学锋, 孙根年. 旅游产业生长点的SGGT模式与空间演化——以张家界为例[J]. 地理研究, 2013, 32(10): 1923-1936.
[14] 田亚平, 向清成, 王鹏. 区域人地耦合系统脆弱性及其评价指标体系[J]. 地理研究, 2013, 32(1): 55-63.
[15] 万鲁河, 张茜, 陈晓红. 哈大齐工业走廊经济与环境协调发展评价指标体系——基于脆弱性视角的研究[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(9): 1673-1684.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
版权所有 © 《地理研究》编辑部
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn