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地理研究    2018, Vol. 37 Issue (7): 1377-1390     DOI: 10.11821/dlyj201807010
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市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径
郭琪1(),朱晟君2()
1. 南开大学经济与社会发展研究院,天津 300071
2. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京 100871
Market similarity and the evolutionary path of China's export market expansion
GUO Qi1(),ZHU Shengjun2()
1. College of Economic and Social Development, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China
2. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
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摘要 

基于扩展引力模型和演化经济地理理论,利用2002-2011年中国海关数据库,采用核密度分布和计量经济模型等方法,考察中国城市出口市场的空间演化路径及其微观机制。基于共存分析方法测算的国家间市场相似度在方法上有所创新,将演化经济地理研究中的“路径”成功量化。全国样本的研究结果表明:城市和企业两个层面的演化路径证明了扩展引力模型的基本结论,说明与过去出口市场相似度越高的国家,被城市和企业扩展为新市场的概率越大,证实了中国出口市场的空间演化是遵循路径依赖的。此外,还发现城市与企业之间的协同演化过程:东部城市表现出路径突破,而企业层面的能力可能是城市路径突破的重要来源;同时,城市层面的知识溢出对企业市场演化有显著的正向影响。总之,城市与企业之间相互影响、协同演化是中国出口市场空间演化的重要机制。

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郭琪
朱晟君
关键词 出口市场扩展路径依赖市场相似性扩展引力模型 
Abstract

Based on the extended gravity model and evolutionary economic geography, this paper uses Kernel density distribution and econometric models to investigate the path of export market expansion in urban China and its micro-mechanism at the firm level by using 2002-2011 China Customs Database. To quantify the evolutionary path of export market expansion, this paper measures the inter-national market similarity based on the co-occurrence analysis and then calculates the market similarity between export destinations and firms' (or cities') export market network, which is used as an important explanatory variable in the econometric models. The results show that the market that is more similar to cities or firms' previous destinations is more likely to be expanded as a new destination, implying that cities' and firms' export market expansion in China presents the pattern of path dependence. This study also examines the co-evolution of cities' and firms' market expansion. The city-level evolution in the east is path created, which may derive from firms' path dependence. Knowledge spillover effect within the same city plays a significantly positive role in the firms' market evolution. Therefore, the co-evolution of cities' and firms' market expansion is the key mechanism of export market expansion path in China.

Key wordsexport market expansion    path dependence    market similarity    extended gravity model
收稿日期: 2017-12-27      出版日期: 2018-08-03
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41701124,47101115,41731278)
引用本文:   
郭琪, 朱晟君 . 市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1377-1390.
GUO Qi, ZHU Shengjun . Market similarity and the evolutionary path of China's export market expansion[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(7): 1377-1390.
链接本文:  
http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/10.11821/dlyj201807010      或      http://www.dlyj.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V37/I7/1377
Fig. 1  市场相似度θmn的核密度分布图与统计
Fig. 2  市场相似网络图
注:门槛设定为0.3(0.5),即所有展示的是相似度大于等于0.3(0.5)的国家对;每个点代表不同的国家,不同颜色代表不同的大洲;该图用cytoscape3.2.1绘制而成。图中,A指中国台湾,B指中国香港。
变量 国家间临近 民间使用共同语言 历史上殖民地 人口加权地理距离 GDP加权地理距离 常数项 观测值
OLS估计参数 0.091*** 0.018*** 0.062*** -0.000*** -0.000*** 0.185*** 25921
标准误 -0.006 -0.002 -0.007 0.000 0.000 0.002
Tab. 1  市场相似性与国家间历史、地理、文化等特征的关系
Fig. 3  新市场、潜在市场与城市已出口市场相似度的核密度分布图
注:所有的ANOVA检验的P值为0.0000,说明新市场与潜在市场的核密度分布具有统计上的显著差异。
未标准化 标准化
全样本 东部 中部 西部 东北 全样本 东部 中部 西部 东北
Densitync 1.638*** 0.726 1.132** 3.031*** 2.372** 0.180*** 0.080 0.124** 0.332*** 0.260**
(0.295) (0.639) (0.460) (0.583) (0.925) (0.032) (0.070) (0.050) (0.064) (0.101)
lndist -0.271*** 0.158*** -0.269*** -0.384*** -0.233*** -0.139*** 0.081*** -0.138*** -0.197*** -0.119***
(0.016) (0.041) (0.032) (0.021) (0.047) (0.008) (0.021) (0.016) (0.011) (0.024)
Constant 2.862*** -0.450 2.395*** 3.205*** 2.342*** 0.585 1.070* 0.074 0.056 0.492***
(0.631) (0.725) (0.392) (0.278) (0.493) (0.602) (0.565) (0.210) (0.149) (0.143)
城市异质性 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
样本数 41349 5325 9623 21506 4895 41349 5325 9623 21506 4895
LR chi2 6539 547.9 384.9 3762 632.4 6539 547.9 384.9 3762 632.4
Prob>chi2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tab. 2  市场相似性对城市出口市场空间演化的影响
Fig. 4  新市场、潜在市场与企业已出口市场相似度的核密度分布图
注:ANOVA检验的P值均为0.0000,说明新市场与潜在市场的核密度分布具有统计上的显著差异。
未标准化 标准化
全样本 东部 中部 西部 东北 全样本 东部 中部 西部 东北
Densitynf 0.055*** 0.064*** 0.016*** 0.018*** 0.030*** 0.011*** 0.012*** 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.006***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Densitync 0.035*** 0.037*** 0.020*** 0.025*** 0.042*** 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.004*** 0.005*** 0.008***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
lndist -0.015*** -0.016*** -0.010*** -0.010*** -0.012*** -0.008*** -0.009*** -0.005*** -0.006*** -0.006***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
Constant 0.127*** 0.133*** 0.083 0.086*** 0.104*** 0.009*** 0.009*** 0.005 0.014*** 0.015***
(0.000) (0.000) (0.785) (0.005) (0.003) (0.000) (0.000) (1.750) (0.005) (0.002)
城市异质性 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制 控制
样本数 42444512 35531861 2351433 2131849 2429369 42444512 35531861 2351433 2131849 2429369
Tab. 3  市场相似性与企业出口市场的空间演化
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