地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (7): 1377-1390.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201807010
收稿日期:
2017-12-27
修回日期:
2018-04-26
出版日期:
2018-07-30
发布日期:
2018-07-30
作者简介:
作者简介:郭琪(1987- ),女,辽宁兴城人,博士,讲师,研究方向为经济地理、产业和区域经济。 E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2017-12-27
Revised:
2018-04-26
Online:
2018-07-30
Published:
2018-07-30
About author:
Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail:
*Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.
E-mail:
摘要:
基于扩展引力模型和演化经济地理理论,利用2002-2011年中国海关数据库,采用核密度分布和计量经济模型等方法,考察中国城市出口市场的空间演化路径及其微观机制。基于共存分析方法测算的国家间市场相似度在方法上有所创新,将演化经济地理研究中的“路径”成功量化。全国样本的研究结果表明:城市和企业两个层面的演化路径证明了扩展引力模型的基本结论,说明与过去出口市场相似度越高的国家,被城市和企业扩展为新市场的概率越大,证实了中国出口市场的空间演化是遵循路径依赖的。此外,还发现城市与企业之间的协同演化过程:东部城市表现出路径突破,而企业层面的能力可能是城市路径突破的重要来源;同时,城市层面的知识溢出对企业市场演化有显著的正向影响。总之,城市与企业之间相互影响、协同演化是中国出口市场空间演化的重要机制。
郭琪, 朱晟君. 市场相似性与中国制造业出口市场的空间演化路径[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1377-1390.
Qi GUO, Shengjun ZHU. Market similarity and the evolutionary path of China's export market expansion[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(7): 1377-1390.
表2
市场相似性对城市出口市场空间演化的影响"
未标准化 | 标准化 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全样本 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | 全样本 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | ||
Densitync | 1.638*** | 0.726 | 1.132** | 3.031*** | 2.372** | 0.180*** | 0.080 | 0.124** | 0.332*** | 0.260** | |
(0.295) | (0.639) | (0.460) | (0.583) | (0.925) | (0.032) | (0.070) | (0.050) | (0.064) | (0.101) | ||
lndist | -0.271*** | 0.158*** | -0.269*** | -0.384*** | -0.233*** | -0.139*** | 0.081*** | -0.138*** | -0.197*** | -0.119*** | |
(0.016) | (0.041) | (0.032) | (0.021) | (0.047) | (0.008) | (0.021) | (0.016) | (0.011) | (0.024) | ||
Constant | 2.862*** | -0.450 | 2.395*** | 3.205*** | 2.342*** | 0.585 | 1.070* | 0.074 | 0.056 | 0.492*** | |
(0.631) | (0.725) | (0.392) | (0.278) | (0.493) | (0.602) | (0.565) | (0.210) | (0.149) | (0.143) | ||
城市异质性 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | |
样本数 | 41349 | 5325 | 9623 | 21506 | 4895 | 41349 | 5325 | 9623 | 21506 | 4895 | |
LR chi2 | 6539 | 547.9 | 384.9 | 3762 | 632.4 | 6539 | 547.9 | 384.9 | 3762 | 632.4 | |
Prob>chi2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
表3
市场相似性与企业出口市场的空间演化"
未标准化 | 标准化 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
全样本 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | 全样本 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 东北 | ||
Densitynf | 0.055*** | 0.064*** | 0.016*** | 0.018*** | 0.030*** | 0.011*** | 0.012*** | 0.003*** | 0.003*** | 0.006*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Densitync | 0.035*** | 0.037*** | 0.020*** | 0.025*** | 0.042*** | 0.007*** | 0.007*** | 0.004*** | 0.005*** | 0.008*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
lndist | -0.015*** | -0.016*** | -0.010*** | -0.010*** | -0.012*** | -0.008*** | -0.009*** | -0.005*** | -0.006*** | -0.006*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||
Constant | 0.127*** | 0.133*** | 0.083 | 0.086*** | 0.104*** | 0.009*** | 0.009*** | 0.005 | 0.014*** | 0.015*** | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.785) | (0.005) | (0.003) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (1.750) | (0.005) | (0.002) | ||
城市异质性 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | 控制 | |
样本数 | 42444512 | 35531861 | 2351433 | 2131849 | 2429369 | 42444512 | 35531861 | 2351433 | 2131849 | 2429369 |
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