贸易开放条件下的区域分工与工业污染排放

doi:10.11821/dlyj201807012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对外贸易是否导致专业化区域锁定于污染行业而加剧污染排放?从动态视角出发,将区域分工视为专业化集聚与动态演化的综合,基于中国2003-2009年261个地级市30个制造业大类数据,借助区位商与共现概率描述专业化集聚与动态演化,构建联立方程模型进行实证检验。结果表明：一方面,专业化集聚将形成多个层面拥挤效应,降低污染行业进一步集聚的概率,制约区域朝着污染专业化方向演化;另一方面,环境规制将有效抑制区域进一步朝着污染专业化方向演化。因此,尽管对外贸易扩张在一定程度上强化了污染行业在专业化区域的集聚,但并未因此造成污染排放在区域之间形成两极分化。

关键词: 区域分工, 专业化集聚, 产业演化, 对外贸易, 污染排放强度

Abstract:

Foreign trade can induce the regional division of labour in pollution-intensive sectors. There are also concerns on a likely polarisation of pollution emission in the wake of regional division. This study incorporates a dynamic perspective into the regional division of labour, which becomes a synergy of specialised agglomeration and industrial dynamics. The location quotient is applied to assess the level of specialised agglomeration. An index is also constructed based on co-occurrence probability to capture the route of industrial dynamics. Thus, a simultaneous equation model is constructed to empirically examine the linkage between local environmental performance and regional division of labour, and the role of foreign trade in such a linkage. An "industry-city-year" data panel is established to support the empirical study, which covers 261 prefectural-level cities and 30 industries at the two-digit level with the study period spanning from 2003 to 2009. The results show that an increasing scale of agglomeration is likely to generate various crowding-out effects, resulting in less co-agglomeration of related industries. It will, in turn, keep the industrial mix from moving towards a locked-in way. On the other hand, environmental regulation has been efficient in emission reduction, effectively reducing the probability of introducing new pollution-intensive sectors. To summarize, although the expansion of foreign trade can promote the level of specialised agglomeration, it is less likely to polarise the pollution emission among regions. The results may offer insightful references for managing the tradeoffs between foreign trade and the environment. First, there is a spatial asymmetry between pollution-intensive sectors and their non-pollution-intensive counterparts. The non-pollution-intensive sectors tend to avoid the co-location with the pollution-intensive sectors. In such cases, the co-agglomeration between pollution-intensive and non-pollution-intensive sectors can crowd out the non-pollution intensive ones in its early stage. The efforts on developing non-pollution-intensive sectors should pay off in the long run. Second, there are both active and passive ways to keep regions from being locked in pollution production. Previous efforts may focus on the role of active ways, such as the environmental regulation. However, it is also beneficial to take advantage of the passive ways.

Key words: regional division of labour, specialisation, industrial dynamics, foreign trade, pollution intensity

毛熙彦, 贺灿飞. 贸易开放条件下的区域分工与工业污染排放[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(7): 1406-1420.

Xiyan MAO, Canfei HE. Regional division of labour and its environmental performance in the context of trade liberalisation[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(7): 1406-1420.

图/表 6

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

表4

参考文献 38

[1]	杨丹辉. 中国成为“世界工厂”的国际影响. 中国工业经济, 2005, (9): 42-49. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2005.09.006
	[Yang Danhui.International influences of China's becoming "World Factory". China Industrial Economy, 2005, (9): 42-49.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-480X.2005.09.006
[2]	傅京燕, 张珊珊. 中美贸易与污染避难所假说的实证研究: 基于内含污染的视角. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2011, 21(2): 11-17. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.02.003
	[Fu Jingyan, Zhang Shanshan.The empirical test of China-US trade and pollution haven hypothesis: A perspective from embodied pollution. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2011, 21(2): 11-17.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.02.003
[3]	黄玖立. 对外贸易、区域间贸易与地区专业化. 南方经济, 2011, (6): 7-22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6249.2011.06.001
	[Huang Jiuli.Foreign trade, interregional trade and regional specialization. South China Journal of Economics, 2011, (6): 7-22.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6249.2011.06.001
[4]	魏后凯, 白玫. 中国企业迁移的特征、决定因素及发展趋势. 发展研究, 2009, (10): 9-18.
	[Wei Houkai, Bai Mei.The characteristics, determinants and development trend of Chinese enterprise migration. Development Research, 2009, (10): 9-18.]
[5]	崔建鑫, 赵海霞. 长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理. 地理研究, 2015, 34(3): 504-512. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201503009
	[Cui Jianxin, Zhao Haixia.Spatial relocation of pollution-intensive industry and the mechanism in Yangtze River Delta. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(3): 504-512.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201503009
[6]	仇方道, 蒋涛, 张纯敏, 等. 江苏省污染密集型产业空间转移及影响因素. 地理科学, 2013, 33(7): 789-796.
	[Qiu Fangdao, Jiang Tao, Zhang Chunmin, et al.Spatial relocation and mechanism of pollution-intensive industries in Jiangsu province. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(7): 789-796.]
[7]	沈静, 向澄, 柳意云. 广东省污染密集型产业转移机制: 基于2000-2009年面板数据模型的实证. 地理研究, 2012, 31(2): 357-368. doi: 10.11821/yj2012020015
	[Shen Jing, Xiang Cheng, Liu Yiyun.The mechanism of pollution-intensive industry relocation in Guangdong province, 2000-2009. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(2): 357-368.] doi: 10.11821/yj2012020015
[8]	Cole M A, Elliott R J R. Determining the trade-environment composition effect: The role of capital, labor and environmental regulations. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2003, 46(3): 363-383. doi: 10.1016/S0095-0696(03)00021-4
[9]	Copeland B R, Taylor M S.Trade, growth, and the environment. Journal of Economic Literature, 2004, 42(3): 7-71. doi: 10.1257/002205104773558047
[10]	周沂, 贺灿飞, 刘颖. 中国污染密集型产业地理分布研究. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(7): 1183-1196. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.07.011
	[Zhou Yi, He Canfei, Liu Ying.An empirical study on the geographical distribution of pollution-intensive industries in China. Journal of Natural Resouces, 2015, 30(7): 1183-1196.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.07.011
[11]	张友国. 碳排放视角下的区域间贸易模式: 污染避难所与要素禀赋. 中国工业经济, 2015, (8): 5-19.
	[Zhang Youguo.China's regional trade patterns under the perspective of carbon emissions: Pollution haven and factor endowment. China Industrial Economics, 2015, (8): 5-19.]
[12]	沈静, 魏成. 环境管制影响下的佛山陶瓷产业区位变动机制. 地理学报, 2012, 67(4): 467-478.
	[Shen Jing, Wei Cheng.Relocation mechanisms of the ceramics industry impacted by the environmental regulations in Foshan city. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(4): 467-478.]
[13]	朱平芳, 张征宇, 姜国麟. FDI与环境规制: 基于地方分权视角的实证研究. 经济研究, 2011, (6): 133-145.
	[Zhu Pingfang, Zhang Zhengyu, Jiang Guolin.Empirical study of the relationship between FDI and environmental regulation: An intergovernmental competition perspective. Economic Research Journal, 2011, (6): 133-145.]
[14]	陆铭, 陈钊, 严冀. 收益递增、发展战略与区域经济的分割. 经济研究, 2004, (1): 54-63.
	[Lu Ming, Chen Zhao, Yan Ji.Increasing return, development strategy and regional economic segmentation. Economic Research Journal, 2004, (1): 54-63.]
[15]	周圣强, 朱卫平. 产业集聚一定能带来经济效率吗: 规模效应与拥挤效应. 产业经济研究, 2013, (3): 12-22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-9301.2013.03.002
	[Zhou Shengqiang, Zhu Weiping.Must industrial agglomeration be able to bring about economic efficiency: Economies of scale and crowding effect. Industrial Economics Research, 2013, (3): 12-22.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-9301.2013.03.002
[16]	Lin H L, Li H Y, Yang C H.Agglomeration and productivity: Firm-level evidence from China's textile industry. China Economic Review, 2011, 22(3): 313-329. doi: 10.1016/j.chieco.2011.03.003
[17]	张丽华, 陈伟忠, 林善浪. 我国制造业集聚经济动态性研究: 基于产业生命周期的视角. 产业经济研究, 2013, (3): 23-34. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-9301.2013.03.003
	[Zhang Lihua, Chen Weizhong, Lin Shanlang.Dynamics of agglomeration economies along industry life cycle. Industrial Economics Research, 2013, (3): 23-34.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1671-9301.2013.03.003
[18]	柯善咨, 赵曜. 产业结构、城市规模与中国城市生产率. 经济研究, 2014, (4): 76-88, 115.
	[Ke Shanzi, Zhao Yao.Industrial structure, city size and urban productivity in China. Economic Research Journal, 2014, (4): 76-88, 115.]
[19]	梁婧, 张庆华, 龚六堂. 城市规模与劳动生产率: 中国城市规模是否过小?- 基于中国城市数据的研究. 经济学, 2015. 14(3): 1053-1072.
	[Liang Jing, Zhang Qinghua, Gong Liutang.City size and labor productivity: Are Chinese cities too small? - Based on Chinese city-level data analysis. China Economic, 2015, 14(3): 1053-1072.]
[20]	王琛, 林初昇, 戴世续. 产业集群对技术创新的影响: 以电子信息产业为例. 地理研究, 2012, 31(8): 1375-1386. doi: 10.11821/yj2012080003
	[Wang Chen, Lin Chusheng, Dai Shixu.Research on the relationship between industrial cluster and technological innovation of China's electronics and information industry. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(8): 1375-1386.] doi: 10.11821/yj2012080003
[21]	Hidalgo C A, Klinger B, Barabási A L, et al.The product space conditions the development of nations. Science, 2007, 317(5837): 482-487. doi: 10.1126/science.1144581 pmid: 17656717
[22]	Kahn M E.The geography of US pollution intensive trade: Evidence from 1958 to 1994. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2003, 33(4): 383-400. doi: 10.1016/S0166-0462(02)00042-X
[23]	Mani M, Wheeler D.In search of pollution havens? Dirty industry in the world economy, 1960 to 1995. Journal of Environment and Development, 1998, 7(3): 215-247. doi: 10.1177/107049659800700302
[24]	聂辉华, 江艇, 杨汝岱. 中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题. 世界经济, 2012, (5): 142-158.
	[Nie Huihua, Jiang Ting, Yang Rudai.Application status and potential problems of China's industrial enterprise database. The Journal of World Economy, 2012, (5): 142-158.]
[25]	Grether J-M, Mathys N A.The pollution terms of trade and its five components. Journal of Development Economics, 2013, 100(1): 19-31. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2012.06.007
[26]	程钰, 任建兰, 陈延斌, 等. 中国环境规制效率空间格局动态演变及其驱动机制. 地理研究, 2016, 35(1): 123-136. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201601011
	[Cheng Yu, Ren Jianlan, Chen Yanbin, et al.Spatial evolution and driving mechanism of China's environmental regulation efficiency. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(1): 123-136.] doi: 10.11821/dlyj201601011
[27]	陈建军, 崔春梅, 陈菁菁. 集聚经济、空间连续性与企业区位选择. 管理世界, 2011, (6): 63-75.
	[Chen Jianjun, Cui Chunmei, Chen Jingjing.Agglomeration economy, spatial continuity and location choice of enterprises. Management World, 2011, (6): 63-75.]
[28]	Dumais G, Ellison G, Glaeser E L.Geographic concentration as a dynamic process. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84(2): 193-204. doi: 10.1162/003465302317411479
[29]	Boschma R, Iammarino S.Related variety, trade linkages, and regional growth in Italy. Economic Geography, 2009, 85(3): 289-311. doi: 10.1111/j.1944-8287.2009.01034.x
[30]	Nooteboom B.Learning and Innovation in Organizations and Economies. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2000.
[31]	Dietz T, Rosa E A.Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1997, 94(1): 175-179. doi: 10.1073/pnas.94.1.175 pmid: 8990181
[32]	Cramer J C.Population growth and air quality in California. Demography, 1998, 35(1): 45-56. doi: 10.2307/3004026 pmid: 9512909
[33]	何小钢, 张耀辉. 中国工业碳排放影响因素与CKC重组效应: 基于STIRPAT模型的分行业动态面板数据实证研究. 中国工业经济, 2012, (1): 26-35.
	[He Xiaogang, Zhang Yaohui.Influence factors and environmental Kuznets Curve relink effect of Chinese industry's carbon dioxide emission: Empirical research based on STIRPAT model with industrial dynamic panel data. China Industrial Economics, 2012, (1): 26-35.]
[34]	李君华. 学习效应、拥挤性、地区的分工和集聚. 经济学, 2009, 8(3): 787-812.
	[Li Junhua.Learning, congestion, inter-regional specialization and industrial agglomeration. China Economic, 2009, 8(3): 787-812.]
[35]	Drut M, Mahieux A.Correcting agglomeration economies: How air pollution matters. Papers in Regional Science, 2017, 96(2): 381-400. doi: 10.1111/pirs.12190
[36]	He C F, Yan Y, Rigby D.Regional industrial evolution in China. Papers in Regional Science, 2016, doi: 10.1111/pirs:12246. doi: 10.1111/pirs.12246
[37]	Pindyck R, Rubinfeld D.Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, 4th ed. Singapore: McGraw-Hill/ Irwin, 1997. doi: 10.1002/pros.1064
[38]	He C F, Wang J S.Geographical agglomeration and co-agglomeration of foreign and domestic enterprises: A case study of Chinese manufacturing industries. Post-Communist Economies, 2010, 22(3): 323-343. doi: 10.1080/14631377.2010.498682

工业废气（SO₂）						工业废水
排放强度		污染专业化		非污染专业化		排放强度		污染专业化		非污染专业化
Dp	0.335^***	X_Lp	0.452^***	X_Lnp	0.113	Dp	0.284^***	X_Lp	0.421^**	X_Lnp	0.079
Dnp	-0.002	X_Lp²	-0.189^**	X_Lnp²	-0.034	Dnp	0.213	X_Lp²	-0.187^**	X_Lnp²	-0.027
lnP	-0.060	X_Kp	-0.312^***	X_Knp	-0.323^***	lnP	0.104^*	X_Kp	-0.228^***	X_Knp	-0.256^***
lnY	-0.660^***	X_Kp²	-0.003	X_Knp²	0.101	lnY	-0.934^***	X_Kp²	-0.067	X_Knp²	0.079
lnT	-0.005	X_Fp	0.417^***	X_Fnp	0.319^***	lnT	0.021	X_Fp	0.415^***	X_Fnp	0.360^***
G	-0.039^***	X_Fp²	-0.202^**	X_Fnp²	-0.123^**	G	-0.043^***	X_Fp²	-0.199^***	X_Fnp²	-0.136^***
I	-0.114^***	lnS	-0.317^***	lnS	-0.268^***	I	-0.042^***	lnS	-0.158^***	lnS	-0.173^***
		G	0.049^***	G	-0.009			G	0.049^***	G	-0.005
		I	-0.082^**	I	-0.044^**			I	-0.040^***	I	-0.008^***
样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564
调整后R²	0.897	调整后R²	0.912	调整后R²	0.972	调整后R²	0.907	调整后R²	0.924	调整后R²	0.975

工业废气（SO₂）				工业废水
污染排放强度		污染与非污染行业共聚		污染排放强度		污染与非污染行业共聚
Dtr	0.464^***	X_Lp	0.028	Dtr	0.449^***	X_Lp	0.020
lnP	-0.053	X_Lp²	-0.110	lnP	0.113^**	X_Lp²	-0.032
lnY	-0.670^***	X_Kp	-0.117^*	lnY	-0.923^***	X_Kp	-0.025
lnT	-0.001	X_Kp²	0.102^*	lnT	0.030	X_Kp²	-0.008
G	-0.025^*	X_Fp	0.863^***	G	-0.035^***	X_Fp	0.967^***
I	-0.115^***	X_Fp²	-0.186^**	I	-0.033^**	X_Fp²	-0.264^***
		X_Lnp	0.373^*			X_Lnp	0.238
		X_Lnp²	-0.157			X_Lnp²	-0.142
		X_Knp	-0.448^***			X_Knp	-0.356^***
		X_Knp²	0.086			X_Knp²	0.037
		X_Fnp	-0.676^***			X_Fnp	-0.828^***
		X_Fnp²	0.286^***			X_Fnp²	0.384^***
		lnS	-0.295^***			lnS	-0.164^***
		G	-0.008			G	0.001
		I	-0.062^***			I	-0.002
样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564
调整后R²	0.894	调整后R²	0.952	调整后R²	0.908	调整后R²	0.956

工业废气（SO₂）						工业废水
排放强度		污染专业化		非污染专业化		排放强度		污染专业化		非污染专业化
Dp	0.335^***	X_Lp	0.508^***	X_Lnp	0.140	Dp	0.421^***	X_Lp	0.432^***	X_Lnp	0.131
Dnp	-0.335	X_Lp²	-0.208^***	X_Lnp²	-0.028	Dnp	0.067	X_Lp²	-0.165^***	X_Lnp²	-0.021
lnP	-0.043	X_Kp	-0.191^***	X_Knp	-0.190^***	lnP	0.112	X_Kp	-0.176^***	X_Knp	-0.202^***
lnY	-0.611^***	X_Kp²	-0.045	X_Knp²	0.038	lnY	-0.932^***	X_Kp²	-0.054	X_Knp²	0.040
lnT	0.001	X_Fp	0.108	X_Fnp	0.298^***	lnT	0.023	X_Fp	0.192	X_Fnp	0.323^***
G	-0.039^***	X_Fp²	-0.049	X_Fnp²	-0.120^**	G	-0.051^***	X_Fp²	-0.082	X_Fnp²	-0.125^***
I	-0.117^***	lnS	-0.321^***	lnS	-0.237^***	I	-0.049^***	lnS	-0.166^***	lnS	-0.156^***
		G	0.050^***	G	-0.003			G	0.052^***	G	-0.003
		I	-0.080^***	I	-0.043^**			I	-0.036^***	I	-0.003
样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564
调整后R²	0.900	调整后R²	0.911	调整后R²	0.973	调整后R²	0.902	调整后R²	0.919	调整后R²	0.976

工业废气（SO₂）				工业废水
污染排放强度		污染与非污染行业共聚		污染排放强度		污染与非污染行业共聚
Dtr	0.463^***	X_Lp	0.003	Dtr	0.457^***	X_Lp	-0.015
lnP	-0.063	X_Lp²	-0.096	lnP	0.125^**	X_Lp²	-0.070
lnY	-0.669^***	X_Kp	-0.116^**	lnY	-0.921^***	X_Kp	-0.095^*
lnT	0.001	X_Kp²	0.100^**	lnT	0.022	X_Kp²	0.091^*
G	-0.025^*	X_Fp	0.888^***	G	-0.033^***	X_Fp	0.942^***
I	-0.115^***	X_Fp²	-0.190^***	I	-0.034^**	X_Fp²	-0.226^***
		X_Lnp	0.373^**			X_Lnp	0.317^*
		X_Lnp²	-0.161^*			X_Lnp²	-0.149^*
		X_Knp	-0.434^***			X_Knp	-0.381^***
		X_Knp²	0.078			X_Knp²	0.046
		X_Fnp	-0.700^***			X_Fnp	-0.741^***
		X_Fnp²	0.294^***			X_Fnp²	0.340^***
		lnS	-0.293^***			lnS	-0.166^***
		G	-0.008			G	-0.003
		I	-0.063^***			I	-0.001
样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564	样本数	1564
调整后R²	0.895	调整后R²	0.952	调整后R²	0.908	调整后R²	0.957