中国能源消费与经济增长的相互演进态势及驱动因素

doi:10.11821/dlyj201808005

地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (8): 1528-1540.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201808005

中国能源消费与经济增长的相互演进态势及驱动因素

何则^1,²(), 杨宇^1,²(), 宋周莺^1,², 刘毅^1,²

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049

收稿日期:2018-02-09 修回日期:2018-05-14 出版日期:2018-08-20 发布日期:2018-08-20
作者简介:
作者简介：何则（1992- ）,男,博士研究生,研究方向为世界能源地理与区域发展。E-mail: heze@lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目（41430636）;国家重点研发项目（2016YFA0602800）

The mutual evolution and driving factors of China's energy consumption and economic growth

Ze HE^1,²(), Yu YANG^1,²(), Zhouying SONG^1,², Yi LIU^1,²

1. Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources Research, The Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Analysis and Simulation, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2018-02-09 Revised:2018-05-14 Online:2018-08-20 Published:2018-08-20
About author:
Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail: kevinszq@163.com

^*Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.

E-mail: dengwei@imde.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源要素作为人—地关系系统的重要组成,其作用随着能源开发利用总量、能源利用结构与经济发展等随之演变。采用弹性脱钩指数和广义LMDI方法,研究了20世纪50年代以来中国能源消费与经济增长的动态关系以及能源消费增长的驱动因素。结果显示：① 中国能源消费总量与GDP增长都呈现指数型增长曲线,且两者的增长态势表现出高度的一致性,且煤炭和石油仍然是中国能源消费的主体。② 能源消费与经济增长之间的弹性脱钩状态表现出明显的阶段性特征,当前二者之间的关系整体表现为弱脱钩的相对乐观状态。③ 不同类型能源消费与经济增长的脱钩状态呈现一定的差异性。近年来伴随着能源消费的清洁化转型,天然气、一次电力和其他能源消费与经济增长之间呈现为拓张负脱钩或拓张连接状态。④ 影响能源消费增长的驱动因素中,能源强度是能源消费量降低的最主要因素;投资拉动是能源消费增长的主导因素,土地效应是推动能源消费增长不可忽视的重要因素,其贡献率为35.65%。产业结构效应、劳动力效应和能源结构效应对能源消费增长的整体贡献在15%左右。

关键词: 能源消费, 经济增长, 弹性脱钩, LMDI, 人地关系

Abstract:

As an important component of social-environmental relationship system, energy elements evolve with the total amount of energy development and utilization, energy using structure and economic growth. Based on elastic decoupling index and the generalized LMDI method, this paper studies the dynamic relationship between China's energy consumption and economic growth and the driving factors of energy consumption growth. Results show that: (1) Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the total energy consumption and GDP growth in China present an exponential growth curve, and their growth shows a high degree of consistency. Coal and oil are still the main body of China's energy consumption. (2) The elastic decoupling between energy consumption and economic growth is featured by obvious periodic characteristics, and the overall relationship between the two is kept in a relatively optimistic status (the weak decoupling). (3) The decoupling status for different types of energy consumption and economic growth show certain differences. In recent years, along with the clean transformation of energy consumption, natural gas, primary electricity and other energy consumption and economic growth are presented in a negative decoupling or extension connection status. (4) Energy intensity effect is the most important factor contributing to reducing energy consumption growth. Investment effect is the leading factor contributing to energy consumption growth, and the land effect is an important factor promoting the growth of energy consumption, with its contribution rate being 35.65%. The overall contribution of industrial structure effect, labor force effect and energy structure effect to promote energy consumption growth is around 15%.

Key words: energy consumption, economic growth, elastic decoupling, LMDI, social-environmental relationship system

何则, 杨宇, 宋周莺, 刘毅. 中国能源消费与经济增长的相互演进态势及驱动因素[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(8): 1528-1540.

Ze HE, Yu YANG, Zhouying SONG, Yi LIU. The mutual evolution and driving factors of China's energy consumption and economic growth[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(8): 1528-1540.

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	δE	δG	D^t	脱钩状态
1	<0	>0	D^t<0	强脱钩
2	>0	>0	0.8≥D^t>0	弱脱钩
3	>0	>0	1.2≥D^t>0.8	拓张连结
4	>0	>0	D^t>1.2	拓张性负脱钩
5	>0	<0	D^t<0	强负脱钩
6	<0	<0	0.8≥v>0	弱负脱钩
7	<0	<0	1.2≥D^t>0.8	衰退连结
8	<0	<0	D^t>1.2	衰退脱钩

时期	δE	δG	D^t	脱钩状态
1953-1955	0.3	0.1	2.5	拓张性负脱钩
1956-1960	2.4	0.4	6.3	拓张性负脱钩
1961-1965	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	强脱钩
1966-1970	0.4	0.3	1.7	拓张性负脱钩
1971-1975	0.3	0.2	1.3	拓张性负脱钩
1976-1980	0.3	0.4	0.7	弱脱钩
1981-1885	0.3	0.6	0.5	弱脱钩
1986-1990	0.2	0.3	0.6	弱脱钩
1991-1995	0.3	0.6	0.4	弱脱钩
1995-2000	0.1	0.4	0.2	弱脱钩
2001-2005	0.7	0.5	1.4	拓张性负脱钩
2006-2010	0.3	0.5	0.5	弱脱钩
2011-2014	0.1	0.2	0.4	弱脱钩

时段	ΔE_es^t	ΔE_ei^t	ΔE_e^t	ΔE_k^t	ΔE_l^t	ΔE_la^t
1981-1885	0.06	-30.36	-2.38	80.19	9.67	42.83
1986-1990	0.01	-7.79	2.31	53.16	10.81	41.51
1991-1995	-0.01	-36.38	9.53	58.15	5.21	63.49
1996-2000	0.02	-250.59	5.97	217.44	23.53	103.63
2001-2005	29.61	50.23	0.33	12.50	0.77	6.57
2006-2010	0.01	-33.36	2.33	92.70	4.40	33.94
2011-2014	0.01	-9.53	0.13	58.05	3.95	47.39
1981-2014	9.06	v7.44	2.12	56.04	4.57	35.65

中国能源消费与经济增长的相互演进态势及驱动因素

The mutual evolution and driving factors of China's energy consumption and economic growth

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时期	脱钩状态
时期	煤	石油	天然气	一次电力和其他能源
1953-1955	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩		拓张负脱钩
1956-1960	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩		拓张负脱钩
1961-1965	强脱钩	拓张负脱钩	强脱钩	弱脱钩
1966-1970	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩
1971-1975	弱脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩
1976-1980	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张连结	弱脱钩
1981-1885	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩
1986-1990	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张连结
1991-1995	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张连结
1996-2000	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张连结	拓张连结
2001-2005	拓张负脱钩	拓张连结	拓张负脱钩	拓张连结
2006-2010	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张连结
2011-2014	弱脱钩	弱脱钩	拓张负脱钩	拓张负脱钩

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