地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (9): 1802-1817.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201809012

所属专题: 人口与城市研究

• • 上一篇    下一篇

京津冀人口时空变化特征及其影响因素

王婧1(), 刘奔腾2, 李裕瑞3,4()   

  1. 1. 北京市社会科学院管理研究所,北京 100101
    2. 兰州理工大学设计艺术学院,兰州 730050
    3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    4. 中国科学院精准扶贫评估研究中心,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-03 修回日期:2018-07-20 出版日期:2018-10-22 发布日期:2018-10-22
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王婧(1983- ),女,山东淄博人,博士,副研究员,研究方向为区域发展与管理。E-mail: w.j.2000@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41731286);北京市社会科学院一般课题(2017C4586);北京市中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心一般项目(16ZT004)

Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of population distribution and floating changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Jing WANG1, Benteng LIU2, Yurui LI3,4()   

  1. 1. Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2. School of Design Art, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. Center for Assessment and Research on Targeted Poverty Alleviation, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2018-05-03 Revised:2018-07-20 Online:2018-10-22 Published:2018-10-22
  • About author:

    Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail: kevinszq@163.com

    *Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.

    E-mail: dengwei@imde.ac.cn

摘要:

基于2000和2010年人口普查和社会经济数据、2015年12月13日-25日百度迁徙数据及地理空间数据等多源数据,从人口分布格局与流动格局两个角度,探讨近年京津冀地区人口时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究表明:① 2000-2010年,京津冀地区呈现出明显的由自然地理条件与交通区位因素影响下的人口疏密特征、社会经济发展影响下的京津圈层特征,河北则缺少发育成熟的区域次级中心,京津冀地区人口普遍增加,且以人口显著增加为主要特征;② 人口普查的长时段迁移数据分析发现,京津冀人口流动活力增强,人口流入格局更为集聚;百度迁徙的短时段数据分析发现,北京是人口流入和流出的高热城市,天津是人口流出的较热城市,北京、天津、廊坊三地之间人口流动最为活跃,且以北京为核心的城市间人口流动较为活跃;③ 人力资本积累、产业结构特征、城镇发展水平、基期的经济发展水平、乡村化指数、公共服务水平,以及地理交通区位和地形起伏特征,是京津冀县域常住人口长时段内集散变化的主要影响因素,而短时段人口流动方向与数量还受节假日与季节的叠加影响。从城市功能、场强、网络及其演化的综合视角,更有助于深化人口集疏变化的地理研究。

关键词: 人口变化, 人口流动, 时空格局, 影响因素, 京津冀

Abstract:

Based on multiple types of data and using qualitative and quantitative analysis, the paper analyzes the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of population changes in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from the two aspects of population distribution patterns and population floating in long and short periods. The main results are summed up as follows: (1) BTH region presents an obvious population distribution characteristic, which is influenced by physiographical conditions and traffic location factors; Beijing-Tianjin region reflects the prominent circle features, which is due to social and economic development; and Hebei lacks a mature regional sub-center. From 2000 to 2010, the population of this region is characterized by a significant growth. (2) Over a long period of time, the vitality of population floating has increased and the pattern of population floating is more concentrated. Over a short period of time, Beijing and Tianjin have become the hottest cities of population inflow and outflow respectively in China. The population floating among Beijing, Tianjin and Langfang is the most active, while the Beijing-centered population floating is relatively active. (3) The main influencing factors of the spatial-temporal change of population over a long period of time include human capital accumulation, industrial structure, urbanization, initial economic development level, rurality and public services, geographical location, central city radiation and topographic relief. Holidays and seasons are the important superimposed factors that affect the direction and quantity of short-term population movements.

Key words: population change, population floating, spatial-temporal pattern, influencing factors, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region