基于相互作用关系的中国省际人口流动研究

doi:10.11821/dlyj201809015

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2000年、2010年人口普查及2005年、2015年人口抽样调查数据,采用相互作用关系模型计算了中国“人口流动系统”和“单向相互作用关系值”。结果表明：① 人口流动具有明显的凝聚性,东部地区对流动人口的吸引力依然具有绝对优势;② 省际人口流动呈“非对称双向迁移模式”,人口回流的趋势已不容忽视;③ 长三角地区逐渐代替珠三角成为新的人口流动中心,人口流动开始北移;④ 中西部地区的人口流动分中心某种意义上已经出现,人口就近转移日渐凸显。将2010-2015年间省际人口流动新规律和特征与1995-2010年进行动态对比,对于制定未来人口和区域发展政策,继续缩小东西部地区之间的差距,最终实现区域协调发展具有重要意义。

关键词: 省际人口流动, 人口流动系统, 相互作用关系, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the national census data of 2000 and 2010 as well as population sample survey of 2005 and 2015, this article utilizes the interaction value to analyze the dynamics of floating population in China. The analysis of "population floating system" demonstrates that: (1) Floating population shows great aggregation, in which exist several "population floating systems". (2) The development of the Yangtze River Delta and the Bohai Economic Rim has witnessed the northward trend of the floating population. (3) The improving inter-provincial connections among the western region has gradually strengthened its importance in China since 2010. In addition, the unidirectional interaction value can not only indicate the scale of the population flows but also explain their directions: (1) The largest unidirectional interaction flow occurs mainly between provinces in eastern China and those in central or western China which are exporters of labor forces. Even though eastern China gathered most of the floating population, some provinces have gradually lost their dominance in attracting population from central and western China. (2) The floating population in China presents a "asymmetric bilateral pattern". With the decline of the three major population centers, return flows have become remarkable. (3) Some sub-centers of floating population emerged in the central and western regions, though they are still developing. (4) Population nearby floating has become increasingly prominent in the western region. According to the analysis above, population research can benefit from the interaction value model by considering the inter-provincial population flows among the whole system and presenting their directions. Meanwhile, making comparison of population flows between 2010-2015 for a better understanding of the new characteristics and patterns of floating population is meaningful in formulating population policies and promote regional coordination.

Key words: inter-provincial population flow, population floating system, interaction value, China

豆晓, ARELLANOBlanca, ROCAJosep. 基于相互作用关系的中国省际人口流动研究[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(9): 1848-1861.

Xiao DOU, Blanca ARELLANO, Josep ROCA. China's inter-provincial population flow based on the interaction value analysis[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(9): 1848-1861.

图/表 3

图1

图2

表1

中国省际单向相互作用关系值（大于0.0123）"

出发地	目的地		1995-2000年	2000-2005年	2005-2010年	2010-2015年
上海	安徽		-	0.03420	0.01727	-
江苏	安徽		-	0.02584	0.01595	0.02495
浙江	安徽		-	0.01673	-	0.01252
河北	北京		0.08446	0.07415	0.08784	0.07450
山东	北京		0.01319	-	0.01547	0.01368
四川	重庆		0.02222	-	0.02624	0.04686
江西	福建		0.04637	0.03638	0.02684	0.01960
四川	福建		0.01362	-	0.01293	-
贵州	福建		-	-	-	0.01336
青海	甘肃		0.02888	0.01543	-	-
江西	广东		0.04880	0.03099	0.02823	0.02825
河南	广东		0.02533	0.03626	0.01944	-
湖北	广东		0.05540	0.05679	0.04671	0.03910
湖南	广东		0.16949	0.14493	0.13473	0.11758
广西	广东		0.12294	0.13493	0.14057	0.15714
重庆	广东		-	0.01468	-	-
四川	广东		0.07368	0.04582	0.03395	0.02131
贵州	广东		0.01472	0.01532	-	-
广东	广西		0.01454	0.04054	0.02560	0.04506
浙江	贵州		-	-	-	0.02022
广东	贵州		-	0.02890	-
北京	河北		-	-	0.01591	0.01972
黑龙江	河北		0.01563	-	-	-
内蒙古	河北		-	0.01468	-	-
吉林	黑龙江		0.03424	0.02188	-	-
广东	湖北		-	0.01513	-	-
广东	湖南		-	0.06337	0.03805	0.05259
山西	内蒙古	-		0.01589	-	-
陕西	内蒙古	-		0.02240	-	-
安徽	江苏		0.09338	0.11185	0.08845	0.07633
河南	江苏		-	0.01372	0.01757	0.02744
广东	江西		-	0.04459	0.01989	-
辽宁	吉林		0.01608	-	-	-
黑龙江	吉林		0.02005	0.02096	0.01242	-
内蒙古	辽宁		0.02029	0.02239	0.01772	-
吉林	辽宁		0.04183	0.04343	0.03618	0.02583
黑龙江	辽宁		0.07065	0.06995	0.06725	0.03615
吉林	宁夏		0.02034	-	0.01747	-
吉林	山东		0.01832	0.01543	-	-
出发地	目的地		1995-2000年	2000-2005年	2005-2010年	2010-2015年
黑龙江	山东		0.04173	0.03771	0.02511	-
江苏	上海		0.08208	0.07086	0.05937	0.03827
安徽	上海		0.07129	0.06367	0.05835	0.04208
浙江	上海		0.01943	-	-	-
重庆	四川		0.03656	-	0.01552	0.02161
广东	四川		-	0.03324	0.01277	0.01280
云南	四川		0.01870	-	-	-
河北	天津		0.02727	0.04082	0.04080	0.05850
山东	天津		0.01314	0.03653	0.01762	0.01996
河南	新疆		0.02158	-	-	-
四川	新疆		0.01721	-	-	-
甘肃	新疆		0.07130	0.03610	0.03555	0.04545
四川	云南		0.01861	-	-	-
贵州	云南		0.01624	-	-	-
安徽	浙江		0.03662	0.04393	0.04995	0.03151
江西	浙江		0.04768	0.03008	0.03367	0.02378
河南	浙江		-	-	0.01731	-
四川	浙江		-	0.01926	0.01460	-
贵州	浙江		0.01390	0.03714	0.05120	0.03858

表1

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