地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (11): 2141-2152.doi: 10.11821/dlyj201811002
收稿日期:
2018-05-30
修回日期:
2018-09-18
出版日期:
2018-11-20
发布日期:
2018-11-23
作者简介:
作者简介:吴卓(1988- ),男,辽宁营口人,博士,讲师,研究方向为土地利用与生态过程模拟。E-mail:
基金资助:
Zhuo WU1(), Erfu DAI2,3(
), Meizhen LIN1
Received:
2018-05-30
Revised:
2018-09-18
Online:
2018-11-20
Published:
2018-11-23
About author:
Author: Shi Zhenqin (1988-), PhD, specialized in regional development and land space management in mountain areas. E-mail:
*Corresponding author: Deng Wei (1957-), Professor, specialized in mountain environment and regional development.
E-mail:
摘要:
在全球气候变化和人类活动的影响下,森林生态系统结构、功能以及空间格局都将发生不同程度的变化。明晰景观尺度上未来森林的动态变化,对森林可持续发展具有重要意义。选择江西省泰和县为研究区,综合利用土地利用模型(CA-Markov)和森林景观动态模型(LANDIS-II),并结合生态系统过程模型(PnET-II),模拟气候变化、土地利用、采伐以及综合情景下未来40年(2010-2050年)阔叶林、针叶林的面积及生物量变化。结果表明:① 气候变化对森林面积影响较小,采伐使森林面积显著减少,土地利用变化使森林面积的变化更加剧烈;② 针叶林和阔叶林对不同干扰方式的响应表现出较强差异,针叶林对采伐的响应更加剧烈;③ 多模型综合模拟方法有助于区域森林管理,为南方红壤丘陵区森林结构优化和功能提升提供科学建议。
吴卓, 戴尔阜, 林媚珍. 气候变化和人类活动对南方红壤丘陵区森林生态系统影响模拟研究——以江西泰和县为例[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(11): 2141-2152.
Zhuo WU, Erfu DAI, Meizhen LIN. Simulating the effect of climate change and human activities on the forest ecosystem in the hilly red soil region of southern China: A case study in Taihe county, Jiangxi province[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 2018, 37(11): 2141-2152.
表2
多模拟模型的特征描述"
模拟模型 | 土地利用变化模型(CA-Markov) | 生态系统过程模型(PnET-II) | 森林景观模型(LANDIS-II) |
---|---|---|---|
时间尺度 | 每5年(2010-2050年) | 每5年(2010-2050年) | 每5年(2010-2050年) |
空间尺度 | 100 m×100 m | 0.5°×0.5° | 100 m×100 m |
本地参数化 | 2005-2010年土地利用转移矩阵 | 气候数据、植被参数、立地 参数 | 初始群落分布、生态区、管理区、演替及干扰参数 |
数据来源 | 江西省国土资源调查土地利用数据 | 未来气候情景数据、千烟洲 生态试验站的观测数据、参考文献 | 观测数据、森林小班调查数据、CA-Markov和PnET-II的模拟结果、当地林业管理部门 |
表3
优势树种的物种生活史参数"
树种 | 拉丁名 | 寿命(年) | 成熟年龄(年) | 萌发率 | 耐阴性 | 种子传播距离(m) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
马尾松 | Pinus massoniana | 200 | 10 | 0.2 | 1 | 200 |
湿地松 | Pinus elliottii | 200 | 10 | 0.2 | 1 | 200 |
杉木 | Cunninghamia lanceolata | 200 | 10 | 0.6 | 1 | 200 |
樟树 | Cinnamomum camphora | 1000 | 15 | 0.5 | 4 | 50 |
栲树 | Castanopsis fargesii | 150 | 30 | 0.6 | 5 | 60 |
木荷 | Schima superba | 300 | 20 | 0.6 | 5 | 20 |
白栎 | Quercus fabri | 120 | 15 | 0.6 | 4 | 20 |
青冈 | Cyclobalanopsis multinervis | 200 | 7 | 0.4 | 4 | 20 |
苦楝 | Melia azedarach | 80 | 5 | 0.3 | 2 | 200 |
拟赤杨 | Alniphyllum fortunei | 120 | 15 | 0.4 | 2 | 250 |
桤木 | Alnus cremastogyne | 125 | 5 | 0.4 | 3 | 15 |
[1] |
刘国华, 傅伯杰. 全球气候变化对森林生态系统的影响. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(1): 71-78.
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2001.01.012 |
[Liu Guohua, Fu Bojie.Effects of global climate change on forest ecosystems. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(1): 71-78.]
doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2001.01.012 |
|
[2] | 刘世荣, 代力民, 温远光, 等. 面向生态系统服务的森林生态系统经营: 现状、挑战与展望. 生态学报, 2015, 35(1): 1-9. |
[Liu Shirong, Dai Limin, Wen Yuanguang, et al.A review on forest ecosystem management towards ecosystem services: Status, challenges, and future perspectives. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(1): 1-9.] | |
[3] | 李文华. 中国当代生态学研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2013. |
[Li Wenhua.Contemporary Ecological Research of China. Beijing: Science Press, 2013.] | |
[4] | 傅伯杰. 我国生态系统研究的发展趋势与优先领域. 地理研究, 2010, 29(3): 383-396. |
[Fu Bojie.Trends and priority areas in ecosystem research of China. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(3): 383-396.] | |
[5] | FAO. Global Forest Resource Assessment. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2010. |
[6] |
Wardle D A, Bardgett R D, Callaway R M, et al.Terrestrial ecosystem responses to species gains and losses. Science, 2011, 332: 1273.
doi: 10.1126/science.1197479 pmid: 21659595 |
[7] |
吴绍洪, 赵艳, 汤秋鸿, 等. “未来地球”计划的陆地表层格局研究. 地理科学进展, 2015, 34(1): 10-17.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.002 |
[Wu Shaohong, Zhao Yan, Tang Qiuhong, et al.Land surface pattern study under the framework of Future Earth. Progress in Geography, 2015, 34(1): 10-17.]
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2015.01.002 |
|
[8] |
He Hongshi, Mladenoff D J.Spatially explicit and stochastic simulation of forest landscape fire disturbance and succession. Ecology, 1999, 80(1): 81-99.
doi: 10.2307/176981 |
[9] |
Dai Erfu, Wu Zhuo, Wang Xiaofan, et al.Progress and prospect of research on forest landscape model. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2015, 25(1): 113-128.
doi: 10.1007/s11442-015-1157-z |
[10] |
Botkin D B, Janak J F, Wallis J R.Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth. Journal of Ecology, 1972, 60(3): 849-872.
doi: 10.2307/2258570 |
[11] | Shugart H H Jr, West D C. Development of an Appalachian deciduous forest succession model and its application to assessment of the impact of the chestnut blight. Journal of Environmental Management, 1977, 5: 161-179. |
[12] |
Mladenoff D J.LANDIS and forest landscape models. Ecological Modelling, 2004, 180(1): 7-19.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.03.016 |
[13] |
Liu Jianguo, Ashton P S.FORMOSAIC: An individual-based spatially explicit model for simulating forest dynamics in landscape mosaics. Ecological Modelling, 1998, 106(2-3): 177-200.
doi: 10.1016/S0304-3800(97)00191-9 |
[14] |
高小莉, 赵鹏祥, 郝红科, 等. 基于LANDIS-II的陕西黄龙山森林景观演变动态模拟. 生态学报, 2015, 35(2): 254-262.
doi: 10.5846/stxb201311202774 |
[Gao Xiaoli, Zhao Pengxiang, Hao Hongke, et al.Simulation of forest landscape dynamic change based on LANDIS-II in Huanglongshan, Shaanxi province. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2015, 35(2): 254-262.]
doi: 10.5846/stxb201311202774 |
|
[15] |
Dai Erfu, Wu Zhuo, Ge Quansheng, et al.Predicting the responses of forest distribution and aboveground biomass to climate change under RCPs scenarios in southern China. Global Change Biology, 2016, 22(11): 3642-3661.
doi: 10.1111/gcb.13307 pmid: 27029713 |
[16] |
Liang Shuang, Hurteau M D, Westerling A L.Potential decline in carbon carrying capacity under projected climate-wildfire interactions in the Sierra Nevada. Scientific Reports, 2017, 7(1): 2420.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02686-0 pmid: 28546560 |
[17] |
Liu Shirong, Wu Shuirong, Wang Hui.Managing planted forests for multiple uses under a changing environment in China. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 2014, 44(S1): 1-10.
doi: 10.1186/1179-5395-44-S1-S3 |
[18] |
赵其国, 黄国勤, 王礼献. 中国南方森林生态系统的功能、问题及对策. 森林与环境学报, 2015, 35(4): 289-296.
doi: 10.13324/j.cnki.jfcf.2015.04.001 |
[Zhao Qiguo, Huang Guoqin, Wang Lixian.Forest ecosystems in the south China: Functions, problems and countermeasures. Journal of Forest and Environment, 2015, 35(4): 289-296.]
doi: 10.13324/j.cnki.jfcf.2015.04.001 |
|
[19] |
Viña A, McConnell W J, Yang Hongbo, et al. Effects of conservation policy on China's forest recovery. Science Advances, 2016, 2(3): e1500965.
doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500965 |
[20] | 孙晓芳, 岳天祥. 中国未来土地利用变化对地上植被生物量的影响. 应用生态学报, 2012, 23(8): 2225-2232. |
[Sun Xiaofang, Yue Tianxiang.Effects of China future land use change on aboveground vegetation biomass. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2012, 23(8): 2225-2232.] | |
[21] |
Wang Yidong, Li Qingkang, Wang Huimin, et al.Precipitation frequency controls interannual variation of soil respiration by affecting soil moisture in a subtropical forest plantation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 2011, 41(9): 1897-1906.
doi: 10.1139/x11-105 |
[22] | 中国科学院南方山区综合科学考察队. 江西省泰和县自然资源和农业区划. 北京: 能源出版社, 1982. |
[South Hilly Scientific Expedition by Chinese Academy of Sciences. Natural Resource and Agricultural Regionalization in Taihe County, Jiangxi Province. Beijing: Energy Press, 1982.] | |
[23] |
Han Ji, Hayashi Y, Cao Xin, et al.Application of an integrated system dynamics and cellular automata model for urban growth assessment: A case study of Shanghai, China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2009, 91(3): 133-141.
doi: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2008.12.002 |
[24] | Viera A J, Garrett J M.Understanding interobserver agreement: The kappa statistic. Family Medicine, 2005, 37(5): 360-363. |
[25] |
Aber J D, Federer C A.A generalized, lumped-parameter model of photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and net primary production in temperate and boreal forest ecosystems. Oecologia, 1992, 92: 463-474.
doi: 10.1007/BF00317837 pmid: 28313216 |
[26] |
李焱沐, 王绍强, 钱钊晖, 等. 亚热带针阔混交林光学植被指数与光能利用效率关系研究. 地理研究, 2017, 36(11): 2239-2250.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201711016 |
[Li Yanmu, Wang Shaoqiang, Qian Zhaohui, et al.Investigating the relationship between photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and light-use efficiency (LUE) during different seasons in a subtropical needle-leaf and broadleaf mixed forest. Geographical Research, 2017, 36(11): 2239-2250.]
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201711016 |
|
[27] |
Scheller R M, Domingo J B, Sturtevant B R, et al.Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution. Ecological Modelling, 2007, 201(3-4): 409-419.
doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.10.009 |
[28] | 中国森林编辑委员会. 中国森林(2、3卷). 北京: 中国林业出版社, 2000. |
[Editorial Committee of Forest of China. Forest of China (Volume 2&3). Beijing: China Forestry Publishing House, 2000.] | |
[29] | 马泽清, 刘琪璟, 王辉民, 等. 中亚热带人工湿地松林 (Pinus elliottii) 生产力观测与模拟. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2008, 38(8): 1005-1015. |
[Ma Zeqing, Liu Qijing, Wang Huimin, et al.Observation and modeling of NPP for Pinus elliottii plantation in subtropical China. Science in China Series D: Earth Sciences, 2008, 38(8): 1005-1015.] | |
[30] | 米娜, 于贵瑞, 温学发, 等. 中亚热带人工针叶林对未来气候变化的响应. 应用生态学报, 2008, 19(9): 1877-1883. |
[Mi Na, Yu Guirui, Wen Xuefa, et al.Responses of subtropical conifer plantation to future climate change: A simulation study. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2008, 19(9): 1877-1883.] | |
[31] |
戴尔阜, 李双元, 吴卓, 等. 中国南方红壤丘陵区植被净初级生产力空间分布及其与气候因子的关系: 以江西省泰和县为例. 地理研究, 2015, 34(7): 1222-1234.
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201507003 |
[Dai Erfu, Li Shuangyuan, Wu Zhuo, et al.Spatial pattern of net primary productivity and its relationship with climatic factors in Hilly Red Soil Region of southern China: A case study in Taihe county, Jiangxi province. Geographical Research, 2015, 34(7): 1222-1234.]
doi: 10.11821/dlyj201507003 |
|
[32] |
吴卓, 戴尔阜, 葛全胜, 等. 土地利用和气候变化对森林地上生物量的影响模拟: 以江西省泰和县为例. 地理学报, 2017, 72(9): 1539-1554.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201709001 |
[Wu Zhuo, Dai Erfu, Ge Quansheng, et al.Modelling the integrated effects of land use and climate change scenarios on forest aboveground biomass: A case study in Taihe county of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(9): 1539-1554.]
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201709001 |
|
[33] |
Andrew S, Jesse S, Pennisi E.The future of forests. Science, 2008, 320: 1435.
doi: 10.1126/science.320.5882.1435 |
[34] |
Gustafson E J, Shvidenko A Z, Sturtevant B R, et al.Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia. Ecological Applications, 2010, 20(3): 700-715.
doi: 10.1890/08-1693.1 pmid: 20437957 |
[35] |
Thompson J R, Foster D R, Scheller R, et al.The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA. Ecological Applications, 2011, 27(7): 2425-2444.
doi: 10.1890/10-2383.1 pmid: 22073633 |
[36] |
Ma Jun, Xiao Xiangming, Bu Rencang, et al.Application of the space-for-time substitution method in validating long-term biomass predictions of a forest landscape model. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2017, 94: 127-139.
doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.04.004 |
[37] | 傅伯杰. 地理学综合研究的途径与方法: 格局与过程耦合. 地理学报, 2014, 69(8): 1052-1059. |
[Fu Bojie.The integrated studies of geography: Coupling of patterns and processes. Acta Geographica Sinica. 2014, 69(8): 1052-1059.] | |
[38] | 欧定华, 夏建国. 城市近郊区景观格局变化特征、潜力与模拟: 以成都市龙泉驿区为例. 地理研究, 2016, 35(3): 534-550. |
[Ou Dinghua, Xia Jianguo.Characteristics, potential and simulation of landscape pattern change in peri-urban areas: A case of Longquanyi district Chengdu city. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(3): 534-550.] | |
[39] |
Azizi A, Malakmohamadi B, Jafari H R.Land use and land cover spatiotemporal dynamic pattern and predicting changes using integrated CA-Markov model. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 2016, 2(3): 223-234.
doi: 10.7508/gjesm.2016.03.002 |
[1] | 高超, 李学文, 许莹, 李德. 淮河流域蚌埠闸以上地区夏玉米生育阶段水分供需时空变化特征研究[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(7): 1833-1846. |
[2] | 白孟鑫, 郑景云, 郝志新, 张学珍. 20世纪以来美国树木生长响应气候变化敏感度的时空差异[J]. 地理研究, 2019, 38(4): 822-830. |
[3] | 高新月,戴君虎,张明庆. 1965-2014年北京西郊地区植物观赏期对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理研究, 2018, 37(12): 2420-2432. |
[4] | 马超,刘玮玮,赵鹏飞,马雯思,马威. 1962-2016年达里诺尔流域水、草退化及气候响应[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(9): 1755-1772. |
[5] | 史培军,王季薇,张钢锋,孔锋,王静爱. 透视中国自然灾害区域分异规律与区划研究[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(8): 1401-1414. |
[6] | 胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉. 冬小麦种植区域的可能变化对黄淮海地区农业水资源盈亏的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2017, 36(5): 861-871. |
[7] | 刘斌,刘健,王志远. 中世纪暖期南北半球气候变化特征与成因的模拟对比[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(9): 1659-1671. |
[8] | 宋文静,吴绍洪,陶泽兴,戴君虎. 近30年中国中东部地区植物分布变化[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(8): 1420-1432. |
[9] | 王亚茹,赵雪雁,张钦,雒丽. 高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化适应策略——以甘南高原为例[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(7): 1273-1287. |
[10] | 杜国明,张露洋,徐新良,王介勇. 近50年气候驱动下东北地区玉米生产潜力时空演变分析[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(5): 864-874. |
[11] | 刘俊,李云云,刘浩龙,葛全胜,戴君虎. 气候变化对成都桃花观赏旅游的影响与人类适应行为[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(3): 504-512. |
[12] | 郭灵辉,郝成元,吴绍洪,赵东升,高江波. 内蒙古草地NPP变化特征及其对气候变化敏感性的CENTURY模拟研究[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(2): 271-284. |
[13] | 刘冲,齐述华,汤林玲,何蕾. 植被恢复与气候变化影响下的鄱阳湖流域蒸散时空特征[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(12): 2373-2383. |
[14] | 尹云鹤,吴绍洪,赵东升,戴尔阜. 过去30年气候变化对黄河源区水源涵养量的影响[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(1): 49-57. |
[15] | 史本林,朱新玉,胡云川,杨艳艳. 基于SPEI指数的近53年河南省干旱时空变化特征[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34(8): 1547-1558. |
|