Responses of variations of plant ornamental period to climate change in the west suburbs of Beijing from 1965-2014
GAO Xinyue1,2(),DAI Junhu1(),ZHANG Mingqing2
1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
Based on the phenological data of 50 plant species and the mean daily temperature data from 1965 to 2014, we analyzed the trend, the change patterns, and their response to climate change of ornamental period of leaf greenness, flowering, and leaf coloring and falling (beginning date, end date, and duration), respectively, by applying correlation and regression analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) For all the 50 plant species, the ornamental period of leaf greenness, flowering, and leaf coloring and falling was from April 14 to October 15, April 29 to May 17, October 15 to November 14, respectively. The duration ranged from 163 to 219 days for leaf greenness ornamental period, 6 to 77 days for flowering, 16 to 41 days for leaf coloring and falling. (2) During the study period, the beginning date exhibited an advancing trend of 3.1 days decade-1 for leaf greenness ornamental activities and 1.6 days decade-1 for flowering ornamental activities, respectively, but a delaying trend of 3.6 days decade-1 for leaf coloring and falling ornamental activities. The end date exhibited a delaying trend of 3.6 days decade-1 for leaf greenness ornamental activities and 1.1 days decade-1 for leaf coloring and falling ornamental activities, respectively, but advancing trend of 0.5 days decade-1 for flowering ornamental activities. The duration has extended by 6.8 days decade-1 for leaf greenness ornamental period and 1.2 days decade-1 for flowering ornamental periods, respectively, but shortened by 2.5 days decade-1 for leaf coloring and falling. (3) The extending leaf greenness ornamental period was caused by an earlier beginning date and a later end date. The extending flowering ornamental period was induced by a much earlier beginning date and a less earlier end date. The extending and shortening forms of flowering ornamental period of spring flowering plants were consistent with those of summer flowering plants. The shortening leaf coloring and falling ornamental period was induced by a much later beginning date and a less later end date. (4) The beginning date of ornamental periods of leaf greenness, the beginning and end dates of flowering ornamental period advanced by 3.9 days, 3.4 says and 1.9 days °C-1 in spring, respectively. However, the end date of ornamental period of leaf greenness delayed by 5.2 days °C-1 in spring. The beginning and end dates of ornamental period of leaf coloring and leaf falling delayed by 5.2 days and 2.2 days 1°C-1 in autumn. (5) By combining different phenophases, we identified landscape patterns with different colors and styles, and designed different landscape themes accordingly. Therefore, the study of changes of plant phenology provides a reference for both the innovative design of landscape and the arrangement of plant ornamental vacation.
. 1965-2014年北京西郊地区植物观赏期对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理研究,
2018, 37(12): 2420-2432.
. Responses of variations of plant ornamental period to climate change in the west suburbs of Beijing from 1965-2014[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH,
2018, 37(12): 2420-2432.
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The available data on climate over the past century indicate that the earth is warming. Important biological effects, including changes of plant and animal life cycle events, have already been reported. However, evidence of such effects is still scarce and has been mostly limited to northern latitudes. Here we provide the first long-term (1952 2000) evidence of altered life cycles for some of the most abundant Mediterranean plants and birds, and one butterfly species. Average annual temperatures in the study area (Cardedeu, NE Spain) have increased by 1.4 C over the observation period while precipitation remained unchanged. A conservative linear treatment of the data shows that leaves unfold on average 16 days earlier, leaves fall on average 13 days later, and plants flower on average 6 days earlier than in 1952. Fruiting occurs on average 9 days earlier than in 1974. Butterflies appear 11 days earlier, but spring migratory birds arrive 15 days later than in 1952. The stronger changes both in temperature and in phenophases timing occurred in the last 25 years. There are no significant relationships among changes in phenophases and the average date for each phenophase and species. There are not either significant differences among species with different Raunkiaer life-forms or different origin (native, exotic or agricultural). However, there is a wide range of phenological alterations among the different species, which may alter their competitive ability, and thus, their ecology and conservation, and the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Moreover, the lengthening of plant growing season in this and other northern hemisphere regions may contribute to a global increase in biospheric activity.
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While commonplace in other parts of the world, long-term and ongoing observations of the phenology of native tree species are rare in North America. We use 14 years of field survey data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest to fit simple models of canopy phenology for three northern hardwood species, sugar maple ( Acer saccharum ), American beech ( Fagus grandifolia ), and yellow birch ( Betula alleghaniensis ). These models are then run with historical meteorological data to investigate potential climate change effects on phenology. Development and senescence are quantified using an index that ranges from 0 (dormant, no leaves) to 4 (full, green canopy). Sugar maple is the first species to leaf out in the spring, whereas American beech is the last species to drop its leaves in the fall. Across an elevational range from 250 to 825 m ASL, the onset of spring is delayed by 2.7卤0.4 days for every 100 m increase in elevation, which is in reasonable agreement with Hopkin's law. More than 90% of the variation in spring canopy development, and just slightly less than 90% of the variation in autumn canopy senescence, is accounted for by a logistic model based on accumulated degree-days. However, degree-day based models fit to Hubbard Brook data appear to overestimate the rate at which spring development occurs at the more southerly Harvard Forest. Autumn senescence at the Harvard Forest can be predicted with reasonable accuracy in sugar maple but not American beech. Retrospective modeling using five decades (1957 2004) of Hubbard Brook daily mean temperature data suggests significant trends ( P 0.05) towards an earlier spring (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.18 days earlier/yr), consistent with other studies documenting measurable climate change effects on the onset of spring in both North America and Europe. Our results also suggest that green canopy duration has increased by about 10 days (e.g. sugar maple, rate of change=0.21 days longer/yr) over the period of study.
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The European phyto-phenological database of the EU 5th Framework project POSITIVE facilitated an examination of the rate and spatial pattern of changes in spring phenology across Europe. This database was collected, evaluated and composed from different national databases of Eastern and Western Europe covering the time period 1951-1998. Results show that spring phases have advanced four weeks in Western and Central Europe, and have been delayed up to two weeks in Eastern Europe. Western European spring starts earlier because of the intensive flow of warmer Atlantic air masses; the Eastern part of Europe has a different phenological rhythm and trends, that can be explained by the influence of the Siberian high. The highest rate of significant (p < 0.05) phenological change (-0.3 to -0.4 days per year) occurs in the Western Europe and Baltic Sea regions for early spring phases of hazel and colts-foot. Spring phases of birch, apple and lilac, and summer phases, such as the flowering of linden, tend to occur earlier with an average rate of -0.1 to 0.3 days per year.
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Phenological data on the First Flowering Date (FFD) of woody plants in Beijing from 1963–2007 are analyzed. The correlation between each species’ yearly FFD and the mean monthly temperatures for every year over a 45-year period is used to identify the month in which temperature has the most effect on FFD. Through further analysis, the FFDs of 48 woody plant species are shown to have advanced an average of 5.4 days from 1990–2007 compared to 1963–1989. The results indicate that 70.8% of species flowered significantly earlier (7 days on average) during the period 1990–2007, while only one species (2.1%) flowered significantly later. Moreover, the responses of FFD to climate change are shown to be different in two climatic stages, defined by an abrupt climate change point. Thirty-three species which first flower in March and April are sensitive to temperature are examined. The correlation coefficients between FFD and temperature for 20 species during the latter period (1990–2007) are shown to be larger than during the former period (1963–1989), with a difference of around 610.87 days per 1°C on average. The paper concludes that with the warming of climate, the linear trend of FFD variation, as well as its responsiveness to temperature, became more prominent during 1990–2007 than 1963–1989. The data analyzed in this study present a strong biological indicator of climate change in Beijing, and provide further confirmation of previous results from regional and local studies across the Northern Hemisphere. Phenophase variations indicate that the climate is changing rapidly.
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Changes in phenology (seasonal plant and animal activity driven by environmental factors) from year to year may be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of changes in the biosphere. We have analysed data from more than 30 years of observation in Europe, and found that spring events, such as leaf unfolding, have advanced by 6 days, whereas autumn events, such as leaf colouring, have been delayed by 4.8 days. This means that the average annual growing season has lengthened by 10.8 days since the early 1960s. These shifts can be attributed to changes in air temperature.
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Abstract Using leaf unfolding and leaf coloration data of a widely distributed herbaceous species, Taraxacum mongolicum, we detected linear trend and temperature response of the growing season at 52 stations from 1990 to 2009. Across the research region, the mean growing season beginning date marginal significantly advanced at a rate of -2.102days per decade, while the mean growing season end date was significantly delayed at a rate of 3.102days per decade. The mean growing season length was significantly prolonged at a rate of 5.102days per decade. Over the 52 stations, linear trends of the beginning date correlate negatively with linear trends of spring temperature, whereas linear trends of the end date and length correlate positively with linear trends of autumn temperature and annual mean temperature. Moreover, the growing season linear trends are also closely related to the growing season responses to temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Regarding growing season responses to temperature, a 102°C increase in regional mean spring temperature results in an advancement of 2.102days in regional mean growing season beginning date, and a 102°C increase in regional mean autumn temperature causes a delay of 2.302days in regional mean growing season end date. A 102°C increase in regional annual mean temperature induces an extension of 8.702days in regional mean growing season length. Over the 52 stations, response of the beginning date to spring temperature depends mainly on local annual mean temperature and geographic coordinates plus elevation. Namely, a 102°C increase in spring temperature induces a larger advancement of the beginning date at warmer locations with lower latitudes and further west longitudes than at colder locations with higher latitudes and further east longitudes, while a 102°C increase in spring temperature causes a larger advancement of the beginning date at higher than at lower elevations.
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The northern high latitudes have warmed by about 0.800°C since the early 1970s, but not all areas have warmed uniformly [Hansen et al., 1999]. There is warming in most of Eurasia, but the warming rate in the United States is smaller than in most of the world, and a slight cooling is observed in the eastern United States over the past 50 years. These changes beg the question, can we detect the biotic response to temperature changes? Here we present results from analyses of a recently developed satellite-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set for the period July 1981 to December 1999: (1) About 61% of the total vegetated area between 4000°N and 7000°N in Eurasia shows a persistent increase in growing season NDVI over a broad contiguous swath of land from central Europe through Siberia to the Aldan plateau, where almost 58% (7.30103106 km2) is forests and woodlands; North America, in comparison, shows a fragmented pattern of change in smaller areas notable only in the forests of the southeast and grasslands of the upper Midwest, (2) A larger increase in growing season NDVI magnitude (12% versus 8%) and a longer active growing season (18 versus 12 days) brought about by an early spring and delayed autumn are observed in Eurasia relative to North America, (3) NDVI decreases are observed in parts of Alaska, boreal Canada, and northeastern Asia, possibly due to temperature-induced drought as these regions experienced pronounced warming without a concurrent increase in rainfall [Barber et al., 2000]. We argue that these changes in NDVI reflect changes in biological activity. Statistical analyses indicate that there is a statistically meaningful relation between changes in NDVI and land surface temperature for vegetated areas between 4000°N and 7000°N. That is, the temporal changes and continental differences in NDVI are consistent with ground-based measurements of temperature, an important determinant of biological activity. Together, these results suggest a photosynthetically vigorous Eurasia relative to North America during the past 2 decades, possibly driven by temperature and precipitation patterns. Our results are in broad agreement with a recent comparative analysis of 1980s and 1990s boreal and temperate forest inventory data [United Nations, 2000].
In this paper, effects of global warming on phenological events of China are discussed.First, it is demonstrated that atmospheric temperature is the most important factor influencing plant phenophase: 1. the integral regresseion method is used to analyse the relationship between meteorological factors and phenophase of trees in spring in Beijing. The calculated results show that the relation between meteorological factors and phenophase is close. But the most important factor which influence the phenophase of trees in spring is temperature and their correlation coefficient is more than 0. 7. The sunshine and precipitation are not important factors. If precipitation and sunshine are similar to those in normal years. they may be analysed in three intervals:pre-winter inter and spring. The effect of spring temperature on phenophase is the most important. At that time. the higher the temperature is. the earlier the phenophase occurs. The temperature effect in pre-winter period is similar to that in spring, but the intensity of the effects is smaller. The low temperature in winter also affects the phenophase in spring. but the higher the temperature in that time. the later the phenophase. It is shown that low temperature in winter is also an essential condition for the phenophases occurs. Secondary. the correlation coefficient between phenophase and annual mean temperature is calculated and the value is higher.Because atmospheric temperature is the most important factor on phenophase. a linear model contains only phenophase and annual mean temperature factors are established by the author. Finally, we apply this model to evaluate changes of the phenological events in China for future global warming scenario. The calculated results are as follows:1. Assuming a 2 rise of annual mean temperature. trees phenological events of spring in China will occur about 3-4 days earlier, but may be postponed for 3-4 days in autumn. The greenleaf stage will be prolonged for 6-8 days.2. Assuming the scenario of a doubled CO2 content on the next century which caddses a 1. 0- 1. 8 rise in the annual mean temperature in China, phenological events in China will be 4-6 days earlier in spring, but will be postponed 4-6 day in autumn. The green-leaf stage is prolonged for 10-12 days. The mature date of fruits and seeds may be earlier. Moreover. the number of days in the changes of phenological events in the nothern part of China will be more than those in the southern part.
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The evolution of flowering phenology is the result of a trade-off that balances many factors, including growth, reproductive capacity, and temporal overlap with pollinators. When there is large temporal variation in temperature, particularly in the onset of frost, the optimum flowering strategy will vary from year to year. In Duluth, MN, USA, the end of the growing season can vary by more than 30 days. In this study, we observed flowering phenology and pollinator abundance on 15 genotypes of Solidago altissima in Duluth, MN. We predicted that temporal variation in temperature would lead to a range of flowering strategies in the S. altissima population; some genotypes flower early and in synchrony, some ‘hedge their bets’ by flowering over a range of dates, and others have an intermediate strategy. Our results indicate that genotypes vary in mean flowering date and duration of flowering and, for the two observed years, pollinator abundance was highest for early-flowering genotypes.
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Abstract Increasing temperatures should facilitate the poleward movement of species distributions through a variety of processes, including increasing the growing season length. However, in temperate and boreal latitudes, temperature is not the only cue used by trees to determine seasonality, as changes in photoperiod provide a more consistent, reliable annual signal of seasonality than temperature. Here, we discuss how day length may limit the ability of tree species to respond to climate warming in situ , focusing on the implications of photoperiodic sensing for extending the growing season and affecting plant phenology and growth, as well as the potential role of photoperiod in controlling carbon uptake and water fluxes in forests. We also review whether there are patterns across plant functional types (based on successional strategy, xylem anatomy and leaf morphology) in their sensitivity to photoperiod that we can use to predict which species or groups might be more successful in migrating as the climate warms, or may be more successfully used for forestry and agriculture through assisted migration schemes.
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AbstractConfirming the results of previous regional studies on changes in first bloom dates (FBD) in China, this study provides evidence that complements conclusions drawn from studies of phenological changes in other dynamic climate systems in the Northern Hemisphere. Furthermore, increased occurrences of yearly second blooms (YSB) further reinforce results derived from other studies indicating a recent trend of generalized climate warming across China. Additionally, ascertaining changes in FBD and YSB against a recent background not only provides a hitherto poorly formulated autumnal equivalent to the well-studied shifts in FBD, but also formulates both spring and autumn flowering changes in recent years. Data in this study are derived from observations made from 1963 to 2006 by the Chinese Phenological Observation Network (CPON) nationwide system of monitoring stations that has made observations of over 173 species from across China since 1963. At each site, the mean value of each species annual deviation and spring mean surface temperatures were calculated. For each species, years and locations were also recorded for species in which second blooms (YSB) occurred. Of the 46 FBD samples, 31 showed advances from the mean, blooming earlier over the course of the study period. Notably, although only 8 of the 46 FBD samples showed significance levels of 0.1 or better, the average FBD did advance by 5.3 days. After the 1980s, the frequency of YSB occurrence remained steady, declining a little from the peak in the 1980s, but still exhibiting occurrences far more than were observed earlier. The data from this study clearly indicate that both the phenological advance of FBD in spring and the increased occurrence of YSB are consistent with climate warming.
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