地理研究 ›› 1983, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (2): 55-64.doi: 10.11821/yj1983020006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

北京春季的树木物候与气象因子的统计学分析

张福春   

  1. 中国科学院地理研究所
  • 收稿日期:1981-11-05 修回日期:1982-03-04 出版日期:1983-06-15 发布日期:1983-06-15

STATISTIC ANALYSIS ON THE PHENOPHASE OF TREES IN SPRING OF BEIJING

Zhang Fuchun   

  1. Institute of Geography, Academia Sinica
  • Received:1981-11-05 Revised:1982-03-04 Online:1983-06-15 Published:1983-06-15

摘要: 本文采用积分回归法对北京春季的树木开花期与它前期气象因子的关系作了统计学分析,指出前期气温是影响这些物候期的主要因素,其次是日照时数和降水.上年秋至开花前的气温高低对开花期的早迟都有影响,但不同时期其影响效果不一样,可分成三个时期:在日照时数和降水保持一定的情况下,上年秋或当年春的气温偏高时,可使开花期提前,冬季气温偏高则使开花期推迟,反之亦然.而三个时期中,春季气温又有决定作用.本文还指出,可以利用该模式进行物候预报.

Abstract: In this paper, the integral regression method was used to analyse the relation between meteorological factors and phenophase of trees in spring of Beijing, The conclusions are as follows.1. The relations between meteorological factors and phenophase are very close.2. The factors which influence the phenophase of trees in spring are temperature, sunshine and precipitation in order of the intensity of their effects.3. If precipitation and sunshine are similar to those in normal years, they may be analysed in three time intervals: pre-winter, winter and spring.The effect of spring temperature on phenophese is the most important.At that time, the higher the temperature is, the earlier the phenophase occurs and vice versa. The temperature effect in pre-winter is similar to that in spring, but the intensity is smaller. The low temperature in winter also effects phenophase in spring, but the higher the temperature is, the later the phenophase, and vice versa. This shows that winter low temperature is also an essential condition for phenophase.4. Integral regression equation may be used to forecast the phenophase of the trees in spring.