• 论文 •

### 应用转折点与游程的气候分析与预报

1. 南京大学大气科学系
• 收稿日期:1986-02-07 出版日期:1986-09-15 发布日期:1986-09-15

### AN APPLICATION OF TURNING POINTS AND RUNS TO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND PREDITION

Yao Zhensheng(C. S. Yao)

1. Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University
• Received:1986-02-07 Online:1986-09-15 Published:1986-09-15

Abstract: In this paper, flood/drought runs combined with tunaing points were called flood/drought run-turning points. Consider the flood/drought run-turning points in the historical flood/drought records of the last 500 years as recurrent events.Then, the theory of recurrent events may be applied to the historical records for climatic analysis. Now, let F be flood year with probability P, while D the drought year with probability q. If ε+=FFF-FD,then thecri-tical point between F and D is called the positive run-turning point, while the critical point between D and F is called the negative run-turning point, if ε-=DDD-DF. Let fn(+)=p (ε+ occurs for the first time at thenth trial) and fn(-)=p (ε- occurs for the first time at thenth trial) for n>1 with f0(±)=0. Then, mean and variance of the run-turning times were derived by means of generating function, and the calculated results of these parameters at different stations are likely useful in climatic analysis.