地理研究 ›› 1986, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (3): 1-11.doi: 10.11821/yj1986030001
• 论文 •
Yao Zhensheng(C. S. Yao)
Abstract: In this paper, flood/drought runs combined with tunaing points were called flood/drought run-turning points. Consider the flood/drought run-turning points in the historical flood/drought records of the last 500 years as recurrent events.Then, the theory of recurrent events may be applied to the historical records for climatic analysis. Now, let F be flood year with probability P, while D the drought year with probability q. If ε+=FFF-FD,then thecri-tical point between F and D is called the positive run-turning point, while the critical point between D and F is called the negative run-turning point, if ε-=DDD-DF. Let fn(+)=p (ε+ occurs for the first time at thenth trial) and fn(-)=p (ε- occurs for the first time at thenth trial) for n>1 with f0(±)=0. Then, mean and variance of the run-turning times were derived by means of generating function, and the calculated results of these parameters at different stations are likely useful in climatic analysis.
么枕生. 应用转折点与游程的气候分析与预报[J]. 地理研究, 1986, 5(3): 1-11.
Yao Zhensheng(C. S. Yao). AN APPLICATION OF TURNING POINTS AND RUNS TO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND PREDITION[J]. GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH, 1986, 5(3): 1-11.
导出引用管理器 EndNote|Reference Manager|ProCite|BibTeX|RefWorks