地理研究 ›› 1986, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (3): 1-11.doi: 10.11821/yj1986030001

• 论文 •    下一篇

应用转折点与游程的气候分析与预报

么枕生   

  1. 南京大学大气科学系
  • 收稿日期:1986-02-07 出版日期:1986-09-15 发布日期:1986-09-15

AN APPLICATION OF TURNING POINTS AND RUNS TO CLIMATIC ANALYSIS AND PREDITION

Yao Zhensheng(C. S. Yao)   

  1. Department of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University
  • Received:1986-02-07 Online:1986-09-15 Published:1986-09-15

摘要: 本文把游程和转折点结合起来,研究不同游程转折点和不同游程所组成的转折周期,以游程转折点作为持久循环事件加以推导和用于气候分析或预报。

Abstract: In this paper, flood/drought runs combined with tunaing points were called flood/drought run-turning points. Consider the flood/drought run-turning points in the historical flood/drought records of the last 500 years as recurrent events.Then, the theory of recurrent events may be applied to the historical records for climatic analysis. Now, let F be flood year with probability P, while D the drought year with probability q. If ε+=FFF-FD,then thecri-tical point between F and D is called the positive run-turning point, while the critical point between D and F is called the negative run-turning point, if ε-=DDD-DF. Let fn(+)=p (ε+ occurs for the first time at thenth trial) and fn(-)=p (ε- occurs for the first time at thenth trial) for n>1 with f0(±)=0. Then, mean and variance of the run-turning times were derived by means of generating function, and the calculated results of these parameters at different stations are likely useful in climatic analysis.