地理研究 ›› 1990, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (2): 92-100.doi: 10.11821/yj1990020011

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候突变:有关概念的介绍及一例分析—我国旱涝灾情的突变

张丕远, 葛全胜   

  1. 中国科学院国家计划委员会地理研究所
  • 收稿日期:1989-10-12 修回日期:1990-01-26 出版日期:1990-06-15 发布日期:1990-06-15

ABRUPT CLIMATIC CHANGE:INTRODUCTION AND A CASE STUDY

Zhang Peiyuan, Ge Quansheng   

  1. Institute of Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences and State Planning Commision of the People's Republic of China
  • Received:1989-10-12 Revised:1990-01-26 Online:1990-06-15 Published:1990-06-15

摘要: 本文介绍、评述了气候突变及其有关的一些概念,并应用突变检验方法对我国16个敏感性站点510年来旱涝灾情作了分析。

关键词: 突变检验, 气候突变, 敏感性站点

Abstract: During recent years,the occurrence of abrupt climatic changes during the earth's history has aroused much interest.Recent investigations have shown the occurrence of catastrophes in the behavior of radically simplified deterministic climate models,and the existence of Abrupt Climatic change in the past times.There might be various kinds of abrupt changes existed in the climatic system,but two types of abrupt climatic change were usefull.Type 1 was a simple state change,i.e.,a repid and statistically significant change in some observed measure of the climate system s regime that occured in the absence of any fundamental change in the system's structure,or any long-term change in its external boundary conditions,such as the first killing frost,and the onset of the monsoon.Type 2 is a rapid change of climate that reflects a long-term change in the system's bounmdary conditions.Such events must occur occasionally,for example,as slow tectonically driven changes in geography permit new nodes of atmospheric or oceanic circulation.

Key words: Abrupt change test, Abrupt Climatic change, tensitive spot