地理研究

地理研究 ›› 1994, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 53-59.doi: 10.11821/yj1994030006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

泥石流沟谷演化的不等时距灰色预测*

蒋忠信   

  1. 铁道部第二勘测设计院科研所
  • 收稿日期:1993-04-12 修回日期:1993-11-08 出版日期:1994-09-15 发布日期:1994-09-15
  • 基金资助:
    *院《新建铁路泥石流灾害预测》项目

AN UNEQUAL INTERVAL GRAY FORECAST TO THED EVELOPMENT OF DEBRIS FLOW VALLEY

Jiang Zhongxin   

  1. The Second Surveying and Desiging Institute, Ministiy of Railway
  • Received:1993-04-12 Revised:1993-11-08 Online:1994-09-15 Published:1994-09-15

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摘要： 泥石流沟谷纵剖面形态系表征泥石流发育的综合地形指标.本文以利子依达沟为例,用不等时距GM(1,1)预测沟谷纵剖面形态指数N值的变化,并改进了预测模型的精度.

关键词: 泥石流, 沟谷纵剖面, 不等时距灰色预测

Abstract: The shape of longitudinal profile of a debris flow valley contains the information about the evolution of the basin and the development of the debris flow, and is a synthetical topographic factor which indicates the develoment of the debris flow. Taking the Liziyida valley along the Chendu-Kunming railway as an example, the paper forecasts the change of the forming index N of the longitudinal profile of the valley by using the unequal intervaI GM (1,1),and improves the accuracy of the forecast method. Finally relevant problems in forecasting valley evolution are discussed.

Key words: Debris flow, Longitudinal profile of valley, Gray forecast

PACS: 

  • P931.1