地理研究

地理研究 ›› 1998, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 150-156.doi: 10.11821/yj1998020007

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

采用树木年轮资料重建山东沂山地区200多年来的湿润指数*

沈长泗1, 陈金敏1, 张志华2, 吴祥定3, 张佩云4, 王桂岩4   

  1. 1. 山东省气象科学研究所 济南 250031;
    2. 国家气候中心 北京 100081;
    3. 中国科学院地理研究所 北京 100101;
    4. 山东省林业科学研究所 济南 250014
  • 收稿日期:1996-11-18 修回日期:1997-12-28 出版日期:1998-06-15 发布日期:1998-06-15
  • 基金资助:
    *山东省自然基金资助课题(Y91E0861)

UTLIZING TREE RING CHRONOLOGIES TO RECONSTRUCT 200 YEARS' MOISTURE INDEX IN YISHAN, SHANDONG PROVINCE

Shen Changsi1, Chen Jinmin1, Zhang Zhihua2, Wu Xiangding3, Zhang Peiyun4, Wang Guiyan4   

  1. 1. Shandong Meteorogical Institute, Jinan 250031;
    2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;
    3. Institute of Geography, CAS, Beijing 100101;
    4. Shandong Forestry Institute, Jinan 250014
  • Received:1996-11-18 Revised:1997-12-28 Online:1998-06-15 Published:1998-06-15

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摘要： 在中国,尤其在中国西北部地区,树轮年表是古气候信息的一个重要来源.由于某种原因,中国东部地区少有树轮研究工作.该文通过运引ARSTAN程序,建立并研究了山东境内沂山地区的树轮主年表(1750～1992).树轮和气候要素的响应面分析得出沂山地区的树轮生长和温度降水呈非线性相关,因此使用传统方法重建单个气候因子是不合理的.通过响应函数和回归分析,5月至8月份的湿润指数(P/T)被确定为重建对象,该湿润指数值代表了温度和降水对树轮生长的共同影响,且相关性很高,远超过信度检验.利用线性回归方法,获得重建湿润指数的预报方程,用树木年轮年表重建了自1750年以来的沂山地区逐年5月～8月湿润指数的变化.分析了沂山地区湿润指数重建的可靠性.

关键词: 沂山, 树轮, 湿润指数, 气候重建

Abstract: Tree ring chronologies are a major source of paleoclimatic information in China, especially in Northwest China. For some reasons, there are seldom studies about the tree ring in eastern China.In this paper the major tree ring chronology (1750~1992) in Yishan, Shandong Province, was analyzed by running program ARSTAN. The response surfaces of tree ring and climate indicate that growth of tree ring in Yishan mountain is nonlinear correlated with precipitation and temperature.It is unreasonable to reconstruct climatic variables separately using traditional methods. The reconstructed moisture index (P/T) during May to August, in which both temperature and precipitation influence the tree ring growth, was estimated from response function and regression model. The relationship between tree ring and moisture index (May to August) is obvious. The predictive equation (Y=14.81X+5.65) was obtained from a linear regression model, where Y is predicted value of moisture index, X is tree ring width index. As a result, the local moisture index in 1750 AD at Yishan, Shandong Province, was reconstructed based on tree ring chronologies.For verification of the reliability of the reconstructed moisture index in Yishan area, the dry years were selected from document data, which were used to compare with the years with the small reconstructed moisture index.From 1750 to 1960, there are 32 dry years in document data, which were coincided with the 24 small moisture index years (1758,1768,1774,1778,1786,1805,1814,1825,1837,1838,1856,1860,1876,1877,1878,1899,1907,1917,1920,1925,1927,1948,1952,1959). There are 75 percent correct predictions, which indicates that the reconstructed results were reliable.

Key words: Yishan, tree ring chronologles, moisture index, climate reconstruction

PACS: 

  • P532