地理研究

地理研究 ›› 1998, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 242-248.doi: 10.11821/yj1998030004

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国粮食生产发展的时序变化研究*

党安荣, 阎守邕, 周艺   

  1. 中国科学院遥感应用研究所 北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:1997-11-10 修回日期:1998-07-25 出版日期:1998-09-15 发布日期:1998-09-15
  • 作者简介:党安荣, 男, 1964 年生。1985 年毕业于陕西师范大学地理系, 1997年获中国科学院遥感应用研究所“遥感与地理信息系统”专业博士学位, 现在清华大学建筑学院“城市规划与设计”博士后流动站工作, 主要从事基于RS和GIS的城市总体规划研究, 专长于RS与GIS的应用研究、GIS成果的图形表达等。已发表论文30余篇, 出版专著一部。
  • 基金资助:
    * 国家重点科技项目

A STUDY ON THE TEMPORAL VARIATION OF CHINA’S GRAIN PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT

Dang Anrong, Yan Shouyong, Zhou Yi   

  1. Institute of Remote Sensing Application, CAS, Beijing 100101
  • Received:1997-11-10 Revised:1998-07-25 Online:1998-09-15 Published:1998-09-15

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摘要： 文章对我国粮食生产发展的时序变化进行了全面系统的研究。剖析了“阶段论”、“台阶论”等粮食生产发展研究的常用方法,提出和论述了“渐变论”的观点和方法,建立了“综合增产率”计算模型。然后,应用“渐变论”对1949年～1995年中国粮食总产量进行了定量研究,从粮食总产变化趋势和变化驱动力两方面,深入地分析了粮食总产的时序特征。最后,应用两种方法对粮食总产进行了动态预测,预测2000年我国粮食总产可突破50000×104t。

关键词: 中国, 粮食生产, 时序变化, 动态预测

Abstract: The temporal variation of China's grain production development is studied comprehensively and systematically in this paper. First, the research method about temporal variation of China's grain production development is discussed. After analyzing the common method such as "stage method" and "step method", the author proposed a new opinion and a method named as "gradual variation method", and worked out a new formula to calculate "comprehensive variation ratio". Second, taking the statistic data of historical national annual total grain production (from 1949 to 1995) as source data, the author analyzed the temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production development by using the author's research method. Three temporal variation characteristics of China's total grain production are as follows: (1) The increase tendency of China's total grain production is very obvious; (2) The average increase ratio of China's total grain production is nearly 3%; (3) The trend of China's total grain production increase ratio is reducing. Third, the temporal variation mechanism of China's total grain production is researched by using relative analyses method and gray interrelation analyses method. The analyses result is that the first direct driving force of China's total grain production development is grain crop yield, and the second is grain crop sown area. Finally, the tendency of China's grain production development is studied and predicted by comprehensive dynamic prediction method and equal dimensional GM(1,1) dynamic prediction method. Three prediction schemes are obtained by each prediction method, and the final prediction result is that China's total grain production will be more than 500 million ton by the year 2000.

Key words: China, grain production, temporal variation, dynamic prediction

PACS: 

  • S11