关键词: 水资源, 供需状况, 评价模型, 指标体系

Abstract: Contradiction between supply and demand of water resources for agricultural development is becoming more and more serious with economic development, spreading urbanization and population increase. Usually, the evaluation of water supply & water demand focuses on whether there is a balance between water supply and water demand and attempts to get this balance by unceasingly increasing water supply even including water transfer to meet water demand. Such conception is definite wrong because water resources are limited. In fact, the relationship between supply and demand is not merely a problem of water amount, but a systematic project related to society-economy, environment, population, resources, science and technique. Therefore, a integrated evaluation model has been accepted to quantitatively analyze the condition of water supply and demand in this paper. First of all, the factors influencing water supply and demand are classified and considered at the first level. Each of the factors is described by using several variables, and these variables are considered at the second level. In this way an indicator system composed of the interrelated factors and variables at different levels will be formed. For each region, the function of each factor or variable can be evaluated by using a criteria system. The function of the factors or variables are weighed by using a marking system in which higher mark for a satisfactory factor or variable, vice versa. The condition of supply and demand can be estimated according to sum of-the marks of the variables considered. The evaluation procedure follows:1.to establish an indicator system for evaluating water supply and demand 2.to analyze and calculate weight for each factor and variable 3.to establish the integrated evaluation model 4.to evaluate the conditions of water supply and demand.

Key words: water resources, condition of supply and demand, evaluation model, indicator system